本文關(guān)鍵詞： ArcGIS Engine 煤礦開采沉陷 概率積分法 灰色理論預(yù)測模型 沉陷管理信息系統(tǒng)　出處：《江西理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：據(jù)調(diào)查，井下煤炭能源居我國礦產(chǎn)總資源之首，如何利用最先進(jìn)的技術(shù)對其進(jìn)行充分化、規(guī)�；�、合理化的開采，同時又不會威脅到人類及生態(tài)環(huán)境，反而還能滿足人們?nèi)找媾蛎浀哪茉聪M需求，是保證煤炭行業(yè)健康、穩(wěn)定、可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵所在。然而煤炭開發(fā)與利用是一把雙刃劍，我們在不斷的實踐、研究和嘗試中都會帶來或多或少的危害，大多表現(xiàn)在開采沉陷變形方面，這樣必將導(dǎo)致生態(tài)破壞、物種滅絕等問題，嚴(yán)重者將會危及到人類生存。因此為了能使煤炭行業(yè)健康、穩(wěn)定而長期的發(fā)展下去，我們有必要對開采沉陷防治工作進(jìn)行研究。 本文借助Visual Studio2010開發(fā)工具，基于ArcGIS Engine開發(fā)平臺完成了煤礦開采沉陷管理信息系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計與實現(xiàn)。另外，本系統(tǒng)選用SQLServer2008數(shù)據(jù)庫來完成沉陷信息數(shù)據(jù)的存儲、編輯等工作；建立概率積分法預(yù)測模型，對不同形狀工作面的下沉、傾斜、曲率、移動、變形等趨勢進(jìn)行預(yù)計，并繪制相應(yīng)曲線；同時，本系統(tǒng)還建立了灰色理論預(yù)測模型，基于實測周期數(shù)據(jù)，對概率積分預(yù)計下沉及移動值進(jìn)行預(yù)測，估算各地面點將可能在未來的哪些時刻達(dá)到概率積分預(yù)計下沉量和移動值。本文采用河南某煤礦的開采沉陷信息數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實驗，最終完成了工作面的開采沉陷預(yù)計工作，繪制相應(yīng)曲線。另外，，本系統(tǒng)結(jié)合21041工作面走向主斷面觀測線的周期觀測下沉數(shù)據(jù)，建立灰色預(yù)計模型，最后估算出各測點可能會在2015年2月份至3月份左右達(dá)到概率積分預(yù)計下沉值。 研究與實踐結(jié)果表明，本系統(tǒng)不但操作簡便、界面友好及計算速度快，而且還能夠為實時監(jiān)控、預(yù)測及預(yù)報礦山災(zāi)害發(fā)生提供一個面向?qū)ο蟮牟僮髌脚_，方便相關(guān)煤炭管理部門和生產(chǎn)部門進(jìn)行全局管理，并提出合理而正確的決策。
[Abstract]:According to the investigation, the underground coal energy ranks first among the total mineral resources of our country. How to utilize the most advanced technology to fully, scale and rationalize the exploitation, at the same time, it will not threaten the human beings and the ecological environment, On the contrary, it can also meet the ever-expanding energy consumption needs of people, and is the key to ensuring the healthy, stable and sustainable development of the coal industry. However, the development and utilization of coal is a double-edged sword, and we are constantly practicing. Research and attempts will bring more or less harm, most of which will be manifested in the mining subsidence deformation, which will inevitably lead to ecological destruction, species extinction and other problems, serious will endanger the survival of mankind. Therefore, in order to make the coal industry healthy, With the steady and long-term development, it is necessary for us to study the prevention and cure of mining subsidence. In this paper, the design and implementation of the coal mining subsidence management information system based on the ArcGIS Engine development platform is completed with the help of Visual Studio2010 development tools. In addition, the system selects SQLServer2008 database to complete the storage and editing of subsidence information data. The probabilistic integration method is established to predict the subsidence, inclination, curvature, movement and deformation of different working faces, and the corresponding curves are drawn. At the same time, the grey theory prediction model is established. Based on the measured period data, the predicted subsidence and movement values of probabilistic integrals are predicted. This paper uses the mining subsidence information data of a certain coal mine in Henan to carry on the experiment, and finally completes the mining subsidence prediction work of the working face. In addition, the grey prediction model is established based on the periodic observation subsidence data of the main section observation line of 21041 face. Finally, it is estimated that the predicted probabilistic integral subsidence may be reached between February 2015 and March. The results of research and practice show that the system is not only easy to operate, friendly interface and fast calculation, but also can provide an object-oriented operating platform for real-time monitoring, prediction and prediction of mine disasters. To facilitate the overall management of relevant coal management and production departments, and put forward reasonable and correct decisions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：P642.26;P208

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