測震臺網(wǎng)監(jiān)測能力評估技術的比較研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-10 10:11
【摘要】：作為一項基礎和重要的問題,對測震臺網(wǎng)地震監(jiān)測能力的科學評估,是進一步優(yōu)化測震臺網(wǎng)布局、提升重點地區(qū)監(jiān)測能力和滿足地球科學研究與監(jiān)測預報業(yè)務需求的關鍵。我國測震臺網(wǎng)經(jīng)過半個世紀的發(fā)展,尤其是“十五”數(shù)字化的改造,監(jiān)測能力和臺網(wǎng)建設得到質的飛躍。目前,中國地震臺網(wǎng)建設仍處于快速發(fā)展階段,科學研究、地震監(jiān)測預報,以及正在設計中的“國家地震烈度速報與預警工程”項目的建設等,均對地震臺網(wǎng)監(jiān)測能力的科學評估提出更高要求。論文針對中國地震臺網(wǎng)的監(jiān)測能力評估中的如下問題開展研究:一是,考慮中國地震臺網(wǎng)(CSN)的實際建設和運行情況,如何科學評估地震臺網(wǎng)現(xiàn)有地震監(jiān)測能力;二是,影響和制約中國地震臺網(wǎng)監(jiān)測能力提升的原因有哪些,如何才能滿足地震臺網(wǎng)最優(yōu)監(jiān)測能力提升需求;三是,多種監(jiān)測能力評估方法為評估工作提供更多選擇,如何選擇科學有效的評估方法用于實際工作。為解決上述三個問題,論文分別選用全國范圍(70°～140°E,5°～55°N,涉及相關臺站1001個)和南北地震帶(19°～45°E,94°～110°N,涉及相關臺站289個)地區(qū)為研究區(qū),利用中國地震臺網(wǎng)中心提供的“全國統(tǒng)一正式編目”2008/10/01～2015/09/17的地震觀測報告開展相關工作。在技術方法上,分別使用了“基于概率的完整性震級”(PMC)方法、“完整性震級范圍”(EMR)方法,以及地震臺網(wǎng)常規(guī)使用的“震級-最大距離”方法等,分別開展了方法的引入研究、比較研究,以及發(fā)展了新的臺站運行效能的評價方法。獲得的主要認識如下:一是,基于PMC方法在利用地震臺網(wǎng)實際產出資料的客觀評估、不依賴震級分布關系、可對弱地震活動或無地震活動區(qū)域評估等技術優(yōu)勢,引入了 PMC方法,并對中國地震臺網(wǎng)“十五”項目建成后的監(jiān)測能力進行了客觀評估。結果顯示,當前我國東西部地震監(jiān)測能力差異較大,西部地區(qū)與華北、東南沿海等東部地區(qū)相比地震監(jiān)測能力相對較弱,尤其是青藏高原南部地區(qū)監(jiān)測能力僅在4.5級左右,近海海域地震監(jiān)測能力約在3.5級左右。青藏高原、邊疆海域等地較弱的監(jiān)測能力問題,急需引起高度重視。二是,為更好滿足地震臺網(wǎng)最優(yōu)監(jiān)測能力提升需求,本研究設計“地震檢測能力評分表”,并分別對中國地震臺網(wǎng)1001個臺站進行檢測能力量化打分,并對評分結果的統(tǒng)計特征和空間分布進行分析。此外,研究中通過設定“最佳”地震監(jiān)測能力目標函數(shù)對中國地震臺網(wǎng)以及未來國家地震烈度速報與預警工程項目建成后的地震監(jiān)測能力進行模擬預估,并分別給出地震臺網(wǎng)監(jiān)測能力的理論提升結果。研究結果表明,148個國家臺的臺站檢測能力評分系統(tǒng)高于853個區(qū)域臺,邊疆部分地區(qū)(如:新疆、青海、西藏、內蒙古等)以及東南沿海福建等地臺站地震檢測能力明顯高于東部相對臺站密集區(qū),說明不同臺站在地震事件拾取完備程度上存在差異,可一定程度反映各個臺站的運行管理水平,對未來改進測震臺網(wǎng)年度運維考評方式,有一定參考借鑒意義;模擬結果顯示,在現(xiàn)有臺站基礎上,通過臺站優(yōu)化改造和提升運維管理水平,可顯著提升對內蒙古西部和貴州等大部分地區(qū)的地震監(jiān)測能力。此外,還分別從“底線”的監(jiān)測能力和“最佳”的監(jiān)測能力兩個角度,對國家烈度速報和預警工程項目建成后的理論監(jiān)測能力進行了模擬預估。三是,針對地震監(jiān)測能力評價方法多、評估結果差異大的問題,論文選用了PMC方法、EMR方法和中國地震臺網(wǎng)常用的震級-最大距離方法,以南北地震帶地區(qū)為研究區(qū)進行了比較研究。論文統(tǒng)一采用至少3個臺站記錄的地震資料,對以往關注不夠的地震觀測資料質量一致性問題加以考慮。結果發(fā)現(xiàn),三種方法評估結果差異明顯,南北地震帶個別地區(qū)dMc甚至可達2.0級;三種方法在統(tǒng)計均值上呈現(xiàn)McEMRMpMr趨勢;震級-最大距離方法得到的監(jiān)測能力分布主要取決于臺站密度;南北地震帶32°N以北,PMC方法評估結果相比其他兩種方法顯示更高的地震監(jiān)測能力。通過對各個地震臺站檢測能力評分發(fā)現(xiàn),PMC方法結果顯著不同于其他方法結果主要是由于臺站運維水平和對記錄地震的分析完整程度造成,這兩項因素在地震監(jiān)測能力評分中應加以考慮;地震資料的遴選條件不同,可能會直接影響EMR方法計算結果,以往常用的包括單臺地震記錄的地震目錄可能會產生McEMR結果低估現(xiàn)象。考慮到地震臺網(wǎng)運行實際情況和不同評估方法的計算原理,本研究推薦更為合理的PMC方法用于地震監(jiān)測能力評估工作。論文針對中國地震臺網(wǎng)監(jiān)測能力評估中的三個問題開展研究并獲得的研究結果,將可對科學評估現(xiàn)有監(jiān)測能力和選擇評價方法、進一步完善邊疆海域地區(qū)地震監(jiān)測布局、改進測震臺網(wǎng)考核評價方法、預估國家地震烈度速報與預警工程建成后的監(jiān)測能力等多方面有科學借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:As a basic and important problem, the scientific evaluation of seismic monitoring capability of seismic network is the key to further optimize the layout of seismic network, enhance the monitoring capability of key areas and meet the needs of Geoscientific research, monitoring and prediction. At present, the construction of China's seismic network is still in a rapid development stage. Scientific research, earthquake monitoring and prediction, as well as the construction of the "National Earthquake Intensity Rapid Forecasting and Early Warning Project" under design all put forward higher requirements for the scientific evaluation of seismic network monitoring capacity. In view of the following problems in the evaluation of the monitoring capability of China seismic network: first, considering the actual construction and operation of China Seismological Network (CSN), how to scientifically evaluate the existing seismic monitoring capability of the network; second, what are the reasons that affect and restrict the improvement of the monitoring capability of China seismic network and how to meet the needs of earthquakes? In order to solve the above three problems, the paper chooses the national scope (70 140 E, 5 55 Degree to 45 degrees E, 94 degrees to 110 degrees N, involving 289 related stations) in the study area, using the "National Unified Formal Catalogue" 2008/10/01-2015/09/17 seismic observation reports provided by the China Seismological Network Center to carry out related work. In technical methods, respectively, the "probability-based integral magnitude" (PMC) method and "integral earthquake" method are used. The magnitude range (EMR) method and the "magnitude-maximum distance" method, which are commonly used in seismic networks, have been introduced and studied respectively. A comparative study has been carried out and a new method for evaluating the operational effectiveness of seismic stations has been developed. The main understandings obtained are as follows: First, the objective evaluation based on PMC method using the actual output data of seismic networks has been carried out. The PMC method is introduced to evaluate the monitoring capability of China Seismological Network after the completion of the Tenth Five-Year Plan Project. The results show that there is a great difference in the seismic monitoring capability between the East and the west of China, and the west of China is different from the north and the east of China. Compared with the eastern areas such as the South coast, the seismic monitoring ability is relatively weak, especially in the southern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which is only about 4.5, and the offshore area, which is about 3.5. In order to improve the monitoring capability, this study designed a "seismic detection capability scoring table" and quantified the detection capability of 1001 stations in China seismic network, and analyzed the statistical characteristics and spatial distribution of the scoring results. The results show that the scoring system of the detection ability of 148 national stations is higher than 853 regional stations and some frontier areas (e.g. Xinjiang, Qinghai and West China). The seismic detection ability of the stations in Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Fujian along the southeast coast is obviously higher than that of the relatively dense areas in the east. This shows that there are differences in the degree of completeness of seismic events picked up by different stations, which can reflect the operation and management level of each station to a certain extent, and can be used as a reference for improving the annual operation and maintenance evaluation method of seismic network in the future. The simulation results show that, on the basis of the existing stations, the seismic monitoring capability of the western Inner Mongolia and Guizhou can be significantly improved by optimizing the transformation and upgrading the operation and maintenance management level of the stations. Thirdly, in view of the problems of many evaluation methods of seismic monitoring capacity and large differences in evaluation results, PMC method, EMR method and magnitude-maximum distance method commonly used in China seismic network are selected and compared in the study area of North-South seismic belt. The results show that there are obvious differences in the evaluation results of the three methods. The dMc of some areas in the North-South seismic belt can even reach 2.0. The three methods show a trend of McEMRMpMR in the statistical mean value. The monitoring capability distribution obtained by the maximum distance method mainly depends on the station density; north of the North-South Seismic Belt 32 N, PMC method shows higher seismic monitoring capability than the other two methods. These two factors should be considered in the evaluation of seismic monitoring capability. Different selection conditions of seismic data may directly affect the calculation results of EMR method. Previous catalogues including single seismic records may result in underestimation of McEMR results. According to the actual situation of seismic network operation and the calculation principle of different evaluation methods, this study recommends a more reasonable PMC method for seismic monitoring capability evaluation. The evaluation method can be used for reference in many aspects, such as further improving the layout of seismic monitoring in the border areas, improving the evaluation method of seismic network, and predicting the monitoring ability of the national earthquake intensity quick report and early warning project after completion.
【學位授予單位】：中國地震局地球物理研究所
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P315.78
本文編號：2234150
[Abstract]:As a basic and important problem, the scientific evaluation of seismic monitoring capability of seismic network is the key to further optimize the layout of seismic network, enhance the monitoring capability of key areas and meet the needs of Geoscientific research, monitoring and prediction. At present, the construction of China's seismic network is still in a rapid development stage. Scientific research, earthquake monitoring and prediction, as well as the construction of the "National Earthquake Intensity Rapid Forecasting and Early Warning Project" under design all put forward higher requirements for the scientific evaluation of seismic network monitoring capacity. In view of the following problems in the evaluation of the monitoring capability of China seismic network: first, considering the actual construction and operation of China Seismological Network (CSN), how to scientifically evaluate the existing seismic monitoring capability of the network; second, what are the reasons that affect and restrict the improvement of the monitoring capability of China seismic network and how to meet the needs of earthquakes? In order to solve the above three problems, the paper chooses the national scope (70 140 E, 5 55 Degree to 45 degrees E, 94 degrees to 110 degrees N, involving 289 related stations) in the study area, using the "National Unified Formal Catalogue" 2008/10/01-2015/09/17 seismic observation reports provided by the China Seismological Network Center to carry out related work. In technical methods, respectively, the "probability-based integral magnitude" (PMC) method and "integral earthquake" method are used. The magnitude range (EMR) method and the "magnitude-maximum distance" method, which are commonly used in seismic networks, have been introduced and studied respectively. A comparative study has been carried out and a new method for evaluating the operational effectiveness of seismic stations has been developed. The main understandings obtained are as follows: First, the objective evaluation based on PMC method using the actual output data of seismic networks has been carried out. The PMC method is introduced to evaluate the monitoring capability of China Seismological Network after the completion of the Tenth Five-Year Plan Project. The results show that there is a great difference in the seismic monitoring capability between the East and the west of China, and the west of China is different from the north and the east of China. Compared with the eastern areas such as the South coast, the seismic monitoring ability is relatively weak, especially in the southern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which is only about 4.5, and the offshore area, which is about 3.5. In order to improve the monitoring capability, this study designed a "seismic detection capability scoring table" and quantified the detection capability of 1001 stations in China seismic network, and analyzed the statistical characteristics and spatial distribution of the scoring results. The results show that the scoring system of the detection ability of 148 national stations is higher than 853 regional stations and some frontier areas (e.g. Xinjiang, Qinghai and West China). The seismic detection ability of the stations in Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Fujian along the southeast coast is obviously higher than that of the relatively dense areas in the east. This shows that there are differences in the degree of completeness of seismic events picked up by different stations, which can reflect the operation and management level of each station to a certain extent, and can be used as a reference for improving the annual operation and maintenance evaluation method of seismic network in the future. The simulation results show that, on the basis of the existing stations, the seismic monitoring capability of the western Inner Mongolia and Guizhou can be significantly improved by optimizing the transformation and upgrading the operation and maintenance management level of the stations. Thirdly, in view of the problems of many evaluation methods of seismic monitoring capacity and large differences in evaluation results, PMC method, EMR method and magnitude-maximum distance method commonly used in China seismic network are selected and compared in the study area of North-South seismic belt. The results show that there are obvious differences in the evaluation results of the three methods. The dMc of some areas in the North-South seismic belt can even reach 2.0. The three methods show a trend of McEMRMpMR in the statistical mean value. The monitoring capability distribution obtained by the maximum distance method mainly depends on the station density; north of the North-South Seismic Belt 32 N, PMC method shows higher seismic monitoring capability than the other two methods. These two factors should be considered in the evaluation of seismic monitoring capability. Different selection conditions of seismic data may directly affect the calculation results of EMR method. Previous catalogues including single seismic records may result in underestimation of McEMR results. According to the actual situation of seismic network operation and the calculation principle of different evaluation methods, this study recommends a more reasonable PMC method for seismic monitoring capability evaluation. The evaluation method can be used for reference in many aspects, such as further improving the layout of seismic monitoring in the border areas, improving the evaluation method of seismic network, and predicting the monitoring ability of the national earthquake intensity quick report and early warning project after completion.
【學位授予單位】：中國地震局地球物理研究所
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P315.78
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