本文選題：時空對稱 + 可公度　； 參考：《陜西師范大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：臺灣位于環(huán)太平洋地震帶西緣,處于板塊聚合交界地帶,地質活動劇烈,地震災害頻發(fā)。加之人口密集,資源豐富,工業(yè)發(fā)達,破壞性地震造成的單位面積損失更高。因此,在地震預測仍為世界性難題的今天,研究臺灣地震災害的時空對稱特征,準確判斷其未來發(fā)生趨勢,對于防震減災有重要的理論和實踐意義。本研究搜集整理了1900～2013年臺灣歷史地震災害資料,以對稱性為切入點,綜合運用了可公度法、蝴蝶結構圖、可公度結構系等時間對稱性方法,和空間對稱法、震中經(jīng)緯度遷移法等空間對稱性方法,分別探討了臺灣(含附近海域)及其東南地震帶、東北地震帶和西部地震帶地震災害的時空對稱性特征,并對其未來發(fā)展趨勢進行了判斷。最后對板塊運動、太陽黑子、地球自轉、ENSO事件以及智利地震與臺灣地震災害的相關性進行了分析。主要結論有：(1)1900-2013年,臺灣(含附近海域)、東南地震帶、東北地震帶和西部地震帶不同震級地震均呈現(xiàn)良好的時間對稱性,蝴蝶結構優(yōu)美,可公度結構系脈絡清晰。2015年和2016年,臺灣(含附近海域)Ms≥7.1地震和東北地震帶Ms≥76.2地震信號較強；2016年東南地震帶和西部地震帶強震的信號強烈,分別可能發(fā)生7.1級和7級以上地震。(2)1900～2013年,臺灣(含附近海域)、東南地震帶、東北地震帶和西部地震帶均呈現(xiàn)三邊空間對稱特征：①臺灣(含附近海域)以23.5°N和121.6°E為對稱軸,呈現(xiàn)“西北—東南”對稱分布。判斷下次Ms≥7.1地震發(fā)生有兩種可能趨勢：第一、繼續(xù)與西北—東南對稱軸相對平行,呈南北向分布,向西北方向遷移；第二、在2006年附近向東小幅移動；②東南地震帶以22.95°N為對稱軸,呈現(xiàn)“1南—2北”分布。判斷下次Ms≥7.1地震震中很有可能向西南遷移,大抵移動至23°N以南,122°E以西地區(qū),即發(fā)育在臺灣臺東以東海域；③東北地震帶Ms≥6.2地震以122.1°E為對稱軸,呈現(xiàn)“1東—2西”東西震蕩對稱分布規(guī)律。判斷未來強震很有可能向西南大幅躍遷至宜蘭以東海域,即可能在24.7°N以南,122.01°E以西地區(qū)；④西部地震帶以23.3°N為和120.9°E為對稱軸,呈現(xiàn)“兩西一東和兩北一南”反對稱分布規(guī)律。判斷未來Ms-≥7.0強震震中很有可能向東北遷移,至23°N以北,1210E以東區(qū)域,大致位于臺灣南投市和花蓮市。(3)通過分析地震與相關因子：板塊運動、太陽黑子活動、地球自轉、ENSO事件的相關關系得出：①臺灣地震空間分布與其地質構造結構及該區(qū)板塊相對運動特征十分吻合,主要受SEE-NWW主方向的板塊碰撞地殼應力能量釋放的影響,呈現(xiàn)SE-NW向分布。②各分區(qū)地震災害均多發(fā)于太陽黑子活動下降階段,年份比例分別高達55.6%、72.7%、47.1%、53.8%。③西部地震帶Ms≥7.0強震多發(fā)生在地球自轉的減速期內,其余各區(qū)對地球自轉轉化響應不明顯。④除西部地震帶,其余各區(qū)地震年份均多發(fā)于厄爾尼諾年,概率均在70%以上,最高達78.8%。厄爾尼諾強度越大,對應年份或其滯后年份的地震震級也相應越大,且厄爾尼諾事件與拉尼娜事件交替轉換的年份,研究區(qū)更易發(fā)生震級愈大的地震。(4)1900-2013年,一般地,智利發(fā)生一次Ms≥8.0地震,在其前后4年內,臺灣則會發(fā)生一次或幾次Ms≥7.5地震。此外,構造結構相似的智利和臺灣地震應力能在38～39a左右有較好的對應關系。在38a的變化周期內,臺灣地震應力能正處于活躍期,表明近期臺灣發(fā)生地震的可能性仍然較高,值得注意。本研究確定了近10a臺灣強震災害的時間異常點和空間可能域,豐富了災害趨勢判斷研究案例,為防震減災提供了一定的參考。
[Abstract]:Taiwan is located on the west edge of the Pacific seismic belt, which is in the border area of the plate polymerization, the geological activity is intense, the earthquake disaster occurs frequently. In addition, the population is dense, the resources are rich, the industry is developed, the damage of the unit area caused by the destructive earthquake is higher. Therefore, the time and space symmetry of the earthquake disaster in Taiwan is studied today, and the space-time symmetry of the earthquake disaster is studied. It has important theoretical and practical significance for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. This study collects and collects the historical earthquake disaster data of Taiwan in the past 1900~2013 years, taking symmetry as the breakthrough point, using the method of commensurability, butterfly structure, common degree structure and other time symmetry methods, space symmetry method, epicenter The spatial symmetry of latitudinal migration method, such as the spatial symmetry of Taiwan (including the nearby sea area) and its southeast seismic belt, the Northeast seismic belt and the Western seismic belt, is discussed respectively, and its future development trend is judged. Finally, the plate movement, sunspot, earth rotation, ENSO events and the Chile earthquake and Taiwan are discussed. The correlation of earthquake disaster is analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) 1900-2013 years, Taiwan (including nearby sea area), Southeast seismic belt, Northeast seismic belt and Western seismic belt all exhibit good time symmetry, butterfly structure is beautiful, and the structure line is clear.2015 year and 2016, Taiwan (including nearby sea area) Ms > 7.1 Earthquake and Northeast seismic belt Ms more than 76.2 seismic signals are stronger; in 2016, the strong earthquakes in the southeast seismic belt and the Western seismic belt are strong, the earthquakes of 7.1 and more than 7 may occur respectively. (2) 1900~2013 years, Taiwan (including the nearby sea area), the southeast seismic belt, the Northeast seismic belt and the West seismic belt all have the three side spatial symmetry characteristics: (1) Taiwan (1) The adjacent sea area, with 23.5 degree N and 121.6 degree E as symmetry axis, presents symmetrical distribution of "northwest to Southeast". It is found that there are two possible trends in the next Ms > 7.1 earthquake. First, it continues to be relatively parallel to the north-east and Southeast symmetry axis, the North-South distribution, the north-west direction migrated, and second, moving eastward near 2006; and 2. Southeastern The earthquake belt takes 22.95 degree N as the symmetry axis and presents the "1 South to 2 North" distribution. It is found that the earthquake epicenter of the next Ms > 7.1 earthquake is likely to migrate south-west, move to the south of 23 degree N, and west of 122 degree E, that is, in the east of Taiwan Taitung; and the Northeast seismic belt Ms > 6.2 earthquake is symmetric axis of 122.1 degree E, showing "1 East to 2 West" East-West concussion. It is known that the future strong earthquakes are likely to leap southwestward to the east of Yilan, and can be able to be in the south of 24.7 N to the west of 122.01 E; (4) the Western seismic belt is symmetrical axis of 23.3 degree N and 120.9 E, showing the anti symmetry distribution of "two West One East and two North South". It can move north-east to the north of 23 N and east of 1210E, which is roughly located in Nantou city and Hualian city in Taiwan. (3) through the analysis of earthquakes and related factors: plate movement, sunspot activity, earth rotation, and ENSO events, the spatial distribution of the Taiwan earthquake and its geological structure and the relative motion characteristics of the plate of this area are ten The distribution of SE-NW direction is mainly influenced by the release of stress energy from the plate collision of the plate in the main direction of SEE-NWW. 2. All the seismic disasters in each division are mostly in the stage of the sunspot activity decline, the proportion of the years is up to 55.6%, 72.7%, 47.1%, and 47.1%, and the strong earthquakes of the Western seismic belt Ms more than 7 occur in the deceleration period of the earth's rotation, and the rest The response of each region to the transformation of the earth's rotation is not obvious. (4) except for the Western seismic belt, the earthquake years in the rest of the region are more than Nino years, the probability is above 70%, the higher the 78.8%. El Nino intensity is, the greater the magnitude of the earthquake magnitude in the year or the lagging year, and the year of the transition between the El Nino event and the La Nina event. The research area is more prone to earthquakes with greater magnitude. (4) 1900-2013 years, generally, a Ms > 8 earthquake occurred in Chile. In 4 years before and after it, Taiwan will have one or more earthquakes of Ms > 7.5. In addition, the seismic stress of similar tectonic structures in Chile and Taiwan has a better corresponding relationship between 38 and 39A. In the period of the change of 38a, The earthquake stress energy in Taiwan is in active period, which indicates that the possibility of earthquake in Taiwan is still high in the near future. It is worth paying attention to. This study confirmed the time anomaly point and space possible domain of the near 10A Taiwan strong earthquake disaster, enriched the study case of disaster trend judgment, and provided some reference for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction.
【學位授予單位】：陜西師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P315

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本文編號：2062559