本文選題：地震災(zāi)害 + 應(yīng)急救援��； 參考：《華中科技大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：地震災(zāi)害是最為嚴(yán)重的自然災(zāi)害之一,一旦發(fā)生地震,常常給人民的生命財產(chǎn)安全帶來巨大的損失。當(dāng)?shù)卣鸢l(fā)生后,地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急救援工作會立即啟動,以防止地震災(zāi)害的進一步擴大,減輕受災(zāi)地區(qū)的損失。地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資是地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急救援工作的重要保障,很大程度地影響著應(yīng)急救援工作的質(zhì)量和效率。因此,面對頻發(fā)的地震災(zāi)害,建立科學(xué)、有效的應(yīng)急物資管理決策模型,對于提高地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急救援的能力,減輕地震災(zāi)害引起的生命財產(chǎn)損失具有重大意義。近年來,國內(nèi)外學(xué)者已經(jīng)提出了一系列應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測及調(diào)撥的決策模型,并依據(jù)地震災(zāi)害的特點不斷地對現(xiàn)有決策模型的原理與算法進行改進,使其更加適應(yīng)地震災(zāi)害發(fā)生后的特殊環(huán)境。目前,地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測及調(diào)撥的模型、方法和理論體系都已比較成熟,但從實際的應(yīng)用結(jié)果來看,仍然存在一些問題。比如,應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測與調(diào)撥中各部分內(nèi)容相互作用、聯(lián)系緊密,共同組成一個龐大的有機系統(tǒng),雖然現(xiàn)有的應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測與調(diào)撥模型研究較為廣泛,但都僅僅關(guān)注其中的某個或某幾個方面,研究內(nèi)容較為零散,較少對應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測及調(diào)撥進行系統(tǒng)、整體的研究。其次,地震災(zāi)害通常影響較大,受災(zāi)區(qū)域在空間上分布廣泛并且下墊面受災(zāi)程度在空間上分布具有不均勻性。現(xiàn)有的地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測及調(diào)撥的模型與方法中較少考慮受災(zāi)程度在空間分布上的不均勻性,致使所建立的模型無法反映災(zāi)區(qū)的實際受災(zāi)情況,產(chǎn)生不合理的計算結(jié)果。再次,地震災(zāi)害中廣泛存在著不確定性,包含信息的不完備性、隨機性和模糊性等,如何針對這些不確定性建立合理的模型仍然有待進一步的研究。本文針對現(xiàn)有地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測及調(diào)撥研究中對系統(tǒng)性、空間非均勻性和不確定性考慮不足的問題,采取系統(tǒng)工程的方法對地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測及調(diào)撥中各個環(huán)節(jié)與組成部分進行綜合分析、系統(tǒng)建模,在準(zhǔn)確掌握地震災(zāi)害相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)知識、空間信息技術(shù)、不確定性理論和應(yīng)急物資管理決策方法的基礎(chǔ)上,力求以把握應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測及調(diào)撥全過程的系統(tǒng)性為前提,充分反映災(zāi)區(qū)的空間非均勻性和不確定性,提出科學(xué)、有效的地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測及調(diào)撥模型與方法。應(yīng)用結(jié)果表明,本文所提出的方法能夠提高現(xiàn)有地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測及調(diào)撥模型的決策效果,并對系統(tǒng)工程方法、空間信息技術(shù)和不確定性理論在地震災(zāi)害領(lǐng)域的專題型應(yīng)用研究進行了補充,具有良好的理論創(chuàng)新和集成創(chuàng)新價值。本文的主要研究內(nèi)容及取得的研究成果如下：(1)基于空間案例推理的地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測模型與方法：針對震后災(zāi)區(qū)信息不完備的特點,提出采用案例推理方法來預(yù)測應(yīng)急物資需求情況,同時考慮到地震災(zāi)害對下墊面造成的受災(zāi)程度在空間分布上具有不均勻性的特點,向傳統(tǒng)的案例推理方法中引入空間信息,并重新設(shè)計適用于處理空間信息的案例表達和案例檢索方法,實現(xiàn)空間信息技術(shù)與案例推理的無縫集成,解決了目前地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測中對地震災(zāi)區(qū)的信息不確定性、受災(zāi)程度的空間非均勻性考慮不夠的問題,為應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測以及應(yīng)急物資調(diào)撥模型的構(gòu)建提供有力支撐。(2)考慮道路隨機受損的地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資分發(fā)中心選址模型與方法：針對地震后道路受損隨地震受災(zāi)程度呈現(xiàn)空間非均勻性以及道路受損隨機性的特點,利用空間信息技術(shù)在地震災(zāi)區(qū)受災(zāi)程度空間表達、基礎(chǔ)地理信息處理和災(zāi)區(qū)路網(wǎng)數(shù)據(jù)分析管理等方面的優(yōu)勢,以預(yù)計地震烈度圖為依據(jù),結(jié)合歷史統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),建立地震烈度和道路受損程度之間的關(guān)系,提出了基于改進P-median模型的考慮道路隨機受損的地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資分發(fā)中心選址模型,解決了以傳統(tǒng)P-median模型為代表的分發(fā)中心選址確定性模型對道路不同程度受損和隨機受損考慮不足的問題,為應(yīng)急物資分發(fā)中心選址提供更加客觀、全面和完備的選址方案。(3)基于模糊目標(biāo)規(guī)劃的地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資分配調(diào)度模型與方法：針對地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資分配調(diào)度的多目標(biāo)特性以及多個決策目標(biāo)重要程度之間存在模糊性的特點,充分利用空間信息技術(shù)的優(yōu)勢,使用災(zāi)區(qū)各類空間數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建應(yīng)急物資分配調(diào)度的重點性、高效性和公平性目標(biāo)函數(shù)。同時運用模糊集理論和目標(biāo)規(guī)劃方法,設(shè)計模糊目標(biāo)規(guī)劃方法處理多個目標(biāo)之間的模糊性,提出了基于模糊目標(biāo)規(guī)劃的地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資分配調(diào)度模型,解決了由于目標(biāo)之間的模糊性導(dǎo)致模型無法準(zhǔn)確建立的不足,為應(yīng)急物資分配方案和車輛運行路線的規(guī)劃提供了全新的解決思路,能夠真實、充分和準(zhǔn)確地反映了災(zāi)區(qū)應(yīng)急物資的分配調(diào)度實際情況。系統(tǒng)工程方法、空間信息技術(shù)、不確定性理論與地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資管理決策模型相結(jié)合,作為上述理論、方法和技術(shù)在地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急中的專題應(yīng)用和擴展研究,體現(xiàn)了多學(xué)科綜合交叉應(yīng)用,為地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資需求預(yù)測及調(diào)撥模型的構(gòu)建提供了全新的改進思路,使模型的建立思想和計算結(jié)果在地震災(zāi)害應(yīng)急物資管理決策中更具有參考價值。
[Abstract]:Earthquake disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters. Once an earthquake occurs, it often brings great loss to the people's life and property safety. When the earthquake occurs, the emergency rescue work of the earthquake disaster will start immediately to prevent the further expansion of the earthquake disaster and reduce the loss in the affected area. The emergency material for earthquake disaster is an earthquake disaster. The important guarantee of emergency rescue work greatly affects the quality and efficiency of emergency rescue work. Therefore, in the face of frequent earthquake disasters, the establishment of a scientific and effective emergency material management decision model is of great significance for improving the ability of earthquake disaster emergency rescue and reducing the loss of life and property caused by earthquake disasters. At home and abroad, domestic and foreign scholars have put forward a series of decision-making models for the prediction and allocation of emergency material demand. According to the characteristics of earthquake disasters, the principles and algorithms of the existing decision-making models are constantly improved to make it more suitable for the special environment after the occurrence of earthquake disasters. The method and theory system are mature, but there are still some problems from the practical application results. For example, the prediction of emergency material demand is interacted with each part of the allocation and is closely connected to form a large organic system, although the existing emergency materials demand forecasting and allocation model are widely studied. However, only one or some aspects of the research are concerned, the research content is relatively scattered, the system and the overall study of the emergency material demand forecasting and allocation are less. Secondly, the earthquake disaster usually has great influence, the disaster area is widely distributed in space and the distribution of the disaster level of the underlying surface is uneven in space. The model and method of emergency material demand prediction and allocation of earthquake disaster seldom consider the inhomogeneity of the magnitude of the disaster in the spatial distribution, so that the model can not reflect the actual disaster situation in the disaster area and produce the unreasonable calculation results. Again, the earthquake disaster is widely stored in the uncertainty, including the incompleteness of the information, and the incompleteness of the information. How to set up a reasonable model for these uncertainties remains to be further studied. In this paper, the system engineering method is adopted to solve the problems of systematic, spatial inhomogeneity and uncertainty in the research on the demand forecasting and allocation of emergency materials for earthquake disaster. On the basis of accurate grasp of the basic knowledge of earthquake disaster related, spatial information technology, uncertainty theory and emergency material management decision method, the requirement prediction and allocation of all links and components are analyzed comprehensively. On the basis of the method of decision-making of the uncertainty theory and emergency material management, the premise is to grasp the prediction of emergency materials demand and the systematicness of the whole process of allocation. Reflecting the spatial heterogeneity and uncertainty of the disaster area, the scientific and effective prediction of emergency material demand for earthquake disaster and the model and method are put forward. The application results show that the method proposed in this paper can improve the prediction of the emergency material demand for earthquake disaster and the decision effect of the allocation model, and the spatial information of the system engineering method. Technology and uncertainty theory are supplemented by thematic application research in the field of earthquake disaster. It has good theoretical innovation and integration innovation value. The main contents and achievements of this paper are as follows: (1) the prediction model and method of earthquake disaster emergency material demand based on spatial case-based reasoning: Aiming at the disaster area after the earthquake With the characteristics of incomplete information, a case based reasoning method is proposed to predict the demand for emergency materials. At the same time, taking into account the uneven distribution of the earthquake disaster caused by the earthquake disaster to the underlying surface, the spatial information is introduced into the traditional case reasoning method, and the case is redesigned to deal with the space information. The method of expression and case retrieval is used to realize the seamless integration of space information technology and case-based reasoning. It solves the problem of information uncertainty in earthquake disaster emergency material demand prediction and the lack of space inhomogeneity in the disaster degree, and the construction of emergency material demand prediction and emergency material allocation model. For strong support. (2) the location model and method of emergency material distribution center of earthquake disaster, considering the random damage of road, in view of the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity and randomness of road damage, the spatial information technology is used to express the disaster degree space in the earthquake stricken area and the basic geographic information. The relationship between seismic intensity and road damage degree is established on the basis of seismic intensity map, and the relationship between seismic intensity and road damage degree is established on the basis of seismic intensity map. The location model of emergency material distribution center based on improved P-median model is proposed, which is based on the improved seismic intensity map. The traditional P-median model, represented by the deterministic model of distribution center location, provides a more objective, comprehensive and complete location scheme for the location of emergency material distribution centers. (3) the model and method for the distribution and scheduling of emergency materials for earthquake disaster based on fuzzy target programming. The multi-objective characteristics of the distribution and scheduling of emergency materials for earthquake disaster and the fuzziness between the importance of multiple decision targets and the advantage of space information technology are made full use of the space data in the disaster areas to construct the focus, efficiency and fairness objective function of the emergency materials distribution and dispatch. The fuzzy goal programming method is designed to deal with the fuzziness between multiple targets. A model for distribution and scheduling of earthquake disaster emergency materials based on fuzzy goal programming is proposed, which solves the problem that the model can not be established precisely because of the fuzziness between the targets, and it is the emergency material distribution scheme and the vehicle running route. The plan provides a new solution, which can truly, fully and accurately reflect the actual situation of distribution and scheduling of emergency materials in disaster areas. System engineering method, space information technology, uncertainty theory and earthquake disaster emergency material management decision-making model, as the previous theory, method and technology in the earthquake disaster emergency response. The application and expansion of the questions reflect the multidisciplinary and cross application, which provides a new way of thinking for the prediction of emergency material demand for earthquake disaster and the construction of the allocation model, and makes the thought and calculation results of the model more valuable in the decision-making of earthquake disaster emergency material management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：P315.9

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