本文選題：效能評價技術(shù) + 參考模型��； 參考：《中國地震局地球物理研究所》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在區(qū)域地震危險性分析中,地震預(yù)測效能評價、參考模型的構(gòu)建和區(qū)域地震預(yù)測策略研究是重要的三個基本問題。而在當(dāng)前我國地震預(yù)測研究和預(yù)測預(yù)報業(yè)務(wù)工作體系的“轉(zhuǎn)型升級”過程中,迫切需要構(gòu)建不同時間尺度的、效能可評價的地震預(yù)測模型,開展地震預(yù)測效能評價和區(qū)域地震預(yù)測策略研究。與此相對應(yīng),目前國際上正在開展的以嚴(yán)格的統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)、“競賽式”預(yù)測模型構(gòu)建等為主的“地震可預(yù)測性合作研究”(CSEP)計(jì)劃,以及“可操作的地震預(yù)測”(OEF)等工作對我國相關(guān)工作具有重要的借鑒意義。本論文針對上述三個基本問題,借鑒國際經(jīng)驗(yàn)并結(jié)合中國區(qū)域地震預(yù)測預(yù)報實(shí)際,開展適合我國區(qū)域地震活動特點(diǎn)的地震預(yù)測效能評價、參考模型構(gòu)建和比較研究、區(qū)域地震預(yù)測策略研究,試圖為未來構(gòu)建新型的區(qū)域地震預(yù)測預(yù)報體系提供科學(xué)技術(shù)參考。針對上述三方面問題,分別選用了南北地震帶(21.0°～43.0°N,97.0°～107.0°E)和“晉冀蒙交界”地區(qū)(37.0°～41.0°N,110.0°～116.0°E)為研究區(qū),其中南北地震帶為全球“地震可預(yù)測性合作研究”(CSEP)計(jì)劃中國檢驗(yàn)區(qū)(Chinese Testing Region),而晉冀蒙交界地區(qū)先后20余次被劃入中國地震局年度重點(diǎn)地震危險區(qū),是華北地區(qū)最重要的天然地震預(yù)測試驗(yàn)場。數(shù)據(jù)使用了中國地震臺網(wǎng)提供的1970年以來的“全國統(tǒng)一正式目錄”。在數(shù)據(jù)處理中,為獲得“背景地震”(background sesimicity)使用了時空ETAS模型和隨機(jī)除叢法進(jìn)行了篩選。為選定晉冀蒙交界地區(qū)的地震序列目錄,采用了區(qū)分地震序列與周圍背景地震的時-空天然分布界限的“自然邊界法”,即通過緯度-時間圖、經(jīng)度-時間圖以及震中分布圖相結(jié)合的方式。為確保地震序列的目錄完整性,研究中還使用了“震級-序號”法確定每個地震序列的最小完整性震級(Mc)。針對預(yù)測效能評價及其技術(shù)問題,論文考慮到當(dāng)前全球“地震可預(yù)測性合作研究”(CSEP)計(jì)劃和“可操作的地震預(yù)測”(OEF)前沿動態(tài),開展了 CSEP計(jì)劃中通用的Molchan圖表法、區(qū)域技能評分、N-test、T-test等地震預(yù)測檢驗(yàn)技術(shù)的引入研究和應(yīng)用。上述方法將分別解決概率預(yù)測與危險區(qū)劃分等“二元”預(yù)測結(jié)果檢驗(yàn)、連續(xù)多時段預(yù)測的整體評價、地震發(fā)生率的預(yù)測檢驗(yàn)、不同預(yù)測模型的比較研究等問題。上述檢驗(yàn)方法一方面在優(yōu)化和構(gòu)建預(yù)測模型中起到重要作用,另一方面可量化評價預(yù)測模型和預(yù)測結(jié)果,這些預(yù)測效能評分方法的引入將對解決國內(nèi)相對單一方法的預(yù)測結(jié)果評價發(fā)揮重要作用。針對預(yù)測模型構(gòu)建中所必須的參考模型問題,論文將全球CSEP計(jì)劃中國檢驗(yàn)區(qū)—南北地震帶地區(qū)為研究區(qū),構(gòu)建適合該區(qū)域地震活動特點(diǎn)的效能可評價的參考模型。參照原理簡單、物理意義明確的構(gòu)建原則,選用簡單平滑模型(Triple-S model)和相對強(qiáng)度(RI)模型作為參考模型,使得“參考模型”成為其它地震預(yù)測模型繼續(xù)發(fā)展的“競技標(biāo)靶”,并在考慮隨機(jī)除叢等影響因素情況下,與“地震矩加速釋放”(AMR)預(yù)測模型進(jìn)行了比較研究。研究中還使用了時空ETAS模型進(jìn)行除叢處理后獲得背景地震目錄,用于AMR模型的預(yù)測效能檢驗(yàn)。相關(guān)研究結(jié)果表明,構(gòu)建的兩種參考模型(Triple-S模型和RI模型)可適用南北地震帶地區(qū)的中期尺度預(yù)測。“加速矩釋放”(AMR)模型的實(shí)際預(yù)測效果低于參考模型,表明該模型當(dāng)前的模型設(shè)計(jì)尚無法滿足區(qū)域地震預(yù)測的需要。針對區(qū)域地震預(yù)測策略研究問題,論文利用時間序列ETAS模型和“瘦化算法”,對晉冀蒙交界地區(qū)開展了連續(xù)滑動預(yù)測試驗(yàn)及系統(tǒng)的預(yù)測效能評估。研究結(jié)果表明,ETAS模型和“瘦化算法”對該地區(qū)的余震發(fā)生率具有一定預(yù)測能力,預(yù)測“過少”的比例較低,但預(yù)測“過多”的比例較高;在主震發(fā)生后的早期階段預(yù)測效果較好,但預(yù)測效能隨著序列的持續(xù)時間顯著下降;適度增加預(yù)測時間窗長可改善預(yù)測“過少”的情況,但對預(yù)測“過多”的情況改善不明顯。此外,高階余震激發(fā)能力偏弱,可能是晉冀蒙交界地區(qū)ETAS模型和“瘦化算法”預(yù)測效能偏低的原因之一。作為余震短期發(fā)生率預(yù)測的可能策略,建議在該地區(qū)的ETAS模型和“瘦化算法”預(yù)測應(yīng)用中,采用3天的預(yù)測時間窗、僅對序列早期階段進(jìn)行應(yīng)用,且重點(diǎn)關(guān)注“不低于”相應(yīng)預(yù)測地震數(shù)目的底線思維,可能更具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:In the analysis of regional seismic risk, the evaluation of earthquake prediction efficiency, the construction of reference model and the study of regional earthquake prediction strategy are three important problems. In the process of "transformation and upgrading" of the current earthquake prediction research and prediction business system in our country, it is necessary to construct different time scales and evaluate the effectiveness. The earthquake prediction model, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the earthquake prediction and the study of the regional earthquake prediction strategy. In contrast, the "seismic predictability cooperation research" (CSEP), and the "OEF", are being carried out by the strict statistical test, the "competition" prediction model construction and so on. In view of the above three basic problems, this paper, aiming at the above three basic problems, drawing on the international experience and combining with the reality of China's regional earthquake prediction, carries out the evaluation of earthquake prediction efficiency suitable for the characteristics of regional seismic activity in China, the reference model construction and comparative study, the study of regional earthquake prediction strategy, and the attempt to study the regional earthquake prediction strategy. In order to provide scientific and technical reference for the construction of a new regional earthquake prediction system in the future, the north and South seismic belts (21 to 43 degrees N, 97 to 107 degrees E) and "Jin Ji Meng junction" region (37 to 41 degrees N, 110 to 116 degree E) are selected as the research areas, and the north and South seismic belt is the global "earthquake precondition" CSEP (CSEP) plans the China inspection area (Chinese Testing Region), and the border area of the Jin Hebei Mongolia border area has been divided into more than 20 times in the annual key earthquake hazard area of the China Earthquake Administration. It is the most important natural earthquake prediction test field in North China. In the data processing, the space-time ETAS model and random cluster method are used to select the "background earthquake" (background sesimicity). The "natural boundary method" which distinguishes the natural distribution boundary between the earthquake sequence and the surrounding earthquake is adopted to select the earthquake sequence catalogue in the boundary area of the Jin Ji Meng border area. In order to ensure the integrity of the seismic sequence, the "magnitude sequence number" method is used to determine the minimum integrity magnitude of each earthquake sequence (Mc). For the prediction effectiveness evaluation and its technical problems, the paper takes into account the current global "earthquake precondition". The CSEP plan and the frontier dynamic of "operational earthquake prediction" (OEF) have carried out the research and application of the universal Molchan chart, regional skill score, N-test, T-test and other seismic prediction techniques in the CSEP program. The above method will solve the "two yuan" prediction node, such as the probability prediction and the danger zone division, respectively. The overall evaluation, the prediction test of the earthquake occurrence rate, the comparison of the different prediction models, and so on. The above inspection method plays an important role in optimizing and constructing the prediction model on the one hand, and on the other hand, the prediction model and the pretest results can be quantified, and the introduction of these prediction effectiveness scoring methods will be introduced. It plays an important role in evaluating the prediction results of relatively single method in China. Aiming at the problem of the reference model in the construction of the prediction model, the paper takes the China inspection area of the global CSEP project as the research area of the north and South seismic belt, and constructs the effectiveness and evaluation reference model suitable for the characteristics of the seismic activity in this region. By using the simple and smooth model (Triple-S model) and the relative intensity (RI) model as the reference model, the "reference model" is used as the "competitive target" for the continued development of other earthquake prediction models, and the prediction of "acceleration release of earthquake moment" (AMR) is considered in the case of random cluster and other shadow factors. A comparative study of the model is carried out. The spatio-temporal ETAS model is also used to obtain the background seismic catalogue after the removal of the cluster, which is used to test the predictive effectiveness of the AMR model. The related research results show that the two reference models (Triple-S model and RI model) can be applied to the mid scale prediction of the north and South earthquake zone. The actual prediction effect of the (AMR) model is lower than the reference model, which indicates that the model design of the model is still unable to meet the needs of regional earthquake prediction. In view of the problem of regional earthquake prediction strategy, the paper uses the time series ETAS model and the "thinning algorithm" to carry out continuous sliding prediction experiment and system on the border area of Shanxi and Hebei Province. The results show that the ETAS model and the "thinning algorithm" have a certain predictive ability for the aftershock rate of the region, and the proportion of "too little" is low, but the proportion of "too much" is higher. The prediction effect is better in the early stage after the main shock, but the prediction efficiency is significant with the duration of the sequence. A moderate increase in the length of the prediction time window can improve the prediction of "too little", but it is not obvious to improve the prediction of "too much". In addition, the weak excitation capacity of the high order aftershocks may be one of the reasons for the low prediction efficiency of the ETAS model and the "thinning algorithm" in the border area of the Shanxi Hebei Mongolia border area. The strategy suggests that in the application of the ETAS model and the "thinning algorithm" prediction application in this area, the 3 day prediction time window is used only for the early stage of the sequence, and the bottom line thinking of "not less than" the corresponding prediction of the number of earthquakes may be of more practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地震局地球物理研究所
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：P315

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