本文選題：黃土滑坡 + 危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)估��； 參考：《長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：每年約有三分之一的滑坡發(fā)生在面積不到百分之五的黃土高原地區(qū),《國(guó)務(wù)院關(guān)于加強(qiáng)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害防治工作決定》將黃土高原地區(qū)列為我國(guó)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害重點(diǎn)防治地區(qū)之一。在新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)和絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶建設(shè)中,黃土高原地區(qū)減災(zāi)防災(zāi)工作尤為重要。地質(zhì)災(zāi)害既有自然屬性,又有社會(huì)屬性,決定著地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的危險(xiǎn)性和危害性,掌握地質(zhì)災(zāi)害自身的發(fā)育特征和分布規(guī)律,評(píng)估其發(fā)生的概率和規(guī)模、可能的運(yùn)移路徑和速度、可能到達(dá)的范圍是地質(zhì)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控的基礎(chǔ),也是地質(zhì)工作者的主要任務(wù)。本人有幸全程參加了“陜西省重要城鎮(zhèn)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害調(diào)查與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估(綏德縣城區(qū))”地質(zhì)調(diào)查項(xiàng)目工作,本文根據(jù)詳實(shí)的野外調(diào)查資料,以陜西省榆林市綏德縣城區(qū)黃土滑坡為研究對(duì)象,在總結(jié)國(guó)內(nèi)外滑坡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估理論和危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)估技術(shù)方法的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合研究區(qū)地質(zhì)環(huán)境條件及黃土滑坡特征,梳理了黃土地質(zhì)災(zāi)害危險(xiǎn)性定量化分量評(píng)估的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)方法和難點(diǎn),并選擇典型黃土滑坡開(kāi)展危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)估。1、系統(tǒng)分析了研究區(qū)降雨量序列,劃分100年、50年、20年、10年及5年一遇的1天、5天及10天累計(jì)雨量極值,建立多日累計(jì)極值雨量重現(xiàn)概率模型,并以降雨為觸發(fā)事件,計(jì)算滑坡的發(fā)生概率。2、通過(guò)對(duì)研究區(qū)典型黃土滑坡特征進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,采用經(jīng)驗(yàn)法中的陰影角法進(jìn)行回歸分析,建立滑距預(yù)測(cè)模型,模型擬合度R2=0.961,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差S=0.883。3、定義滑坡的強(qiáng)度為滑移速度與體積的乘積。采用有限元求解方法,開(kāi)發(fā)三維連續(xù)介質(zhì)模型程序,建立典型黃土滑坡的三維動(dòng)態(tài)動(dòng)力分析模型。開(kāi)展滑坡的運(yùn)動(dòng)侵蝕行為、形態(tài)變化及動(dòng)力學(xué)特征研究,預(yù)測(cè)滑坡的滑距、堆積形態(tài)及滑移速度。通過(guò)上述分析,對(duì)滑坡危險(xiǎn)性進(jìn)行定量化計(jì)算。以綏德縣十里鋪村滑坡為例,進(jìn)行陜北典型黃土滑坡危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)估,其定量化結(jié)果為:財(cái)產(chǎn)危險(xiǎn)性H=1.8×10-3,危險(xiǎn)性高,人員危險(xiǎn)性H=6.8×10-4,危險(xiǎn)性中。
[Abstract]:Every year, about 1/3 landslides occur in the Loess Plateau with an area less than 5%. The decision of the State Council on strengthening the prevention and control of geological disasters has listed the Loess Plateau as one of the key areas for the prevention and control of geological disasters in China. In the construction of new urbanization and Silk Road economic belt, the disaster reduction and prevention work in the Loess Plateau is particularly important. Geological hazards have both natural and social attributes, which determine the hazards and harmfulness of geological disasters, master the developmental characteristics and distribution laws of geological disasters themselves, evaluate the probability and scale of geological disasters, and assess the possible migration paths and speeds. The possible range is the basis of geological hazard risk management and the main task of geologists. I was fortunate enough to participate in the geological survey project of "Geological disaster Survey and risk Assessment of important towns in Shaanxi Province (Suide County Urban area)". According to the detailed field investigation data, Taking loess landslide in Suide County, Yulin City, Shaanxi Province as the research object, on the basis of summarizing the theory of landslide risk assessment and the technical method of risk assessment at home and abroad, combined with the geological environment conditions and loess landslide characteristics in the study area, The key technical methods and difficulties of quantitative component assessment of loess geological hazard risk are combed out, and the rainfall sequence in the study area is systematically analyzed by selecting typical loess landslide to carry out hazard assessment. The accumulated rainfall extremum of 1 day, 5 days and 10 days is divided into 100, 50, 20, 10 and 5 years, and the probability model of multiple days accumulative extreme rainfall recurrence is established, and the event is triggered by rainfall. The probability of landslide occurrence is calculated. Through statistical analysis of typical loess landslide characteristics in the study area, regression analysis is carried out by using shadow angle method in empirical method, and a sliding distance prediction model is established. The model fit is 0.961and the standard error is 0.883.3.The strength of the landslide is defined as the product of the slip velocity and volume. The 3D dynamic analysis model of typical loess landslide was established by using the finite element method and the program of 3D continuum model was developed. The movement erosion behavior, morphological change and dynamic characteristics of landslide were studied to predict the slip distance, accumulation shape and slip velocity of landslide. Through the above analysis, the landslide risk is calculated quantitatively. Taking the landslide of Shilipu Village in Suide County as an example, the risk assessment of typical loess landslide in Northern Shaanxi is carried out. The quantitative results are as follows: property risk is 1.8 脳 10 ~ (-3), risk is high, personnel risk is 6.8 脳 10 ~ (-4), risk is moderate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：P642.22

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