本文選題：邊坡可靠度 + 貝葉斯更新��； 參考：《巖土力學》2017年12期

【摘要】：某一特定巖土場地的試驗數據、監(jiān)測資料和觀測信息等通常十分有限,然而貝葉斯方法卻可充分利用有限的場地信息克服試驗數據樣本量較小的不足。為有效估計有限樣本條件下參數統(tǒng)計特征,提出了基于結構可靠度方法和貝葉斯更新(BUS)的邊坡可靠度更新方法,通過融入直剪試驗數據更新無限長邊坡可靠度驗證了提出方法的有效性,并系統(tǒng)探討了巖土體參數先驗信息如試驗樣本量、概率分布和似然函數模型對邊坡可靠度更新的影響規(guī)律。結果表明:BUS方法能夠考慮巖土體參數概率分布和似然函數模型的影響,融入有限的場地信息準確地估計參數統(tǒng)計特征和更新邊坡可靠度,為解決有限樣本條件下邊坡可靠度更新問題提供了一條有效的途徑。土體參數概率分布對邊坡可靠度更新結果(參數后驗均值、標準差以及更新的失效概率)具有重要的影響,基于常用的正態(tài)和對數正態(tài)分布的邊坡可靠度更新結果偏于保守,相比之下,似然函數模型對邊坡可靠度更新結果的影響相對較小。此外,巖土體參數不確定性和更新的邊坡失效概率均隨著試驗樣本量的增大而減小,但當樣本量增大到一定程度時它們的變化不大。
[Abstract]:The test data, monitoring data and observation information of a particular geotechnical site are usually very limited. However, the Bayesian method can make full use of the limited site information to overcome the shortage of small sample size of test data. In order to effectively estimate the statistical characteristics of parameters under the condition of finite samples, a slope reliability updating method based on structural reliability method and Bayesian update method is proposed. The validity of the proposed method is verified by updating the infinite slope reliability by incorporating the direct shear test data, and the prior information of rock and soil parameters such as the sample size of the test is discussed systematically. The influence of probability distribution and likelihood function model on slope reliability update. The results show that the probability distribution of rock and soil parameters and the influence of likelihood function model can be taken into account by using the W-BUS method, which can accurately estimate the statistical characteristics of parameters and update the slope reliability by incorporating limited site information. It provides an effective way to solve the problem of slope reliability renewal under the condition of limited sample. The probability distribution of soil parameters has an important influence on the slope reliability update results (parameter posteriori mean, standard deviation and renewal failure probability). The slope reliability update results based on normal distribution and logarithmic normal distribution are conservative. In contrast, the likelihood function model has relatively little effect on the slope reliability update results. In addition, both the uncertainty of rock and soil parameters and the failure probability of the updated slope decrease with the increase of the sample size, but when the sample size increases to a certain extent, the change of them is not significant.
【作者單位】： 南昌大學建筑工程學院;中國科學院武漢巖土力學研究所巖土力學與工程國家重點實驗室;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金項目(No.51509125,No.51679117) 巖土力學與工程國家重點實驗室開放基金項目(No.Z016014) 江西省自然科學基金項目(No.20171BAB206058) 中國科協(xié)青年人才托舉工程項目~~
【分類號】：TU43

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