本文選題：泥石流　切入點(diǎn)：危險(xiǎn)性評價　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：泥石流是山區(qū)常發(fā)生的一種地質(zhì)災(zāi)害。北京山區(qū)人口密度大,泥石流災(zāi)害較為頻繁,嚴(yán)重威脅當(dāng)?shù)鼐用窈偷皆L游客的人身與財(cái)產(chǎn)安全。針對南窖小流域的泥石流預(yù)測預(yù)警研究,可為小流域提供有針對性的預(yù)測預(yù)警信息。論文以北京市房山區(qū)南窖小流域?yàn)檠芯繉ο?在野外地質(zhì)調(diào)查基礎(chǔ)上,研究南窖小流域溝谷發(fā)育特征,統(tǒng)計(jì)并估算流域內(nèi)松散物源儲量。選取評價泥石流危險(xiǎn)性的指標(biāo),采用層次分析法、熵值法和基于博弈論的組合賦權(quán)法分別獲得指標(biāo)的主觀、客觀和組合權(quán)重值。再由萬有引力搜索算法優(yōu)化的模糊C均值聚類方法,獲得小流域內(nèi)7個溝谷(包括6條一級支溝及主溝形成區(qū)段)的泥石流危險(xiǎn)性分級結(jié)果。借助GIS工具對南窖小流域進(jìn)行危險(xiǎn)性分區(qū)、易損性分區(qū)以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性分區(qū)。將野外地質(zhì)描述、泥石流特征評判、流域內(nèi)7個溝谷的泥石流危險(xiǎn)性評價和全流域的泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性分區(qū)作為南窖小流域泥石流中長期預(yù)測信息。針對自然界復(fù)雜的降雨情況提出“一個降雨過程”概念。利用改進(jìn)的前期有效降雨公式計(jì)算前期有效降雨量。在分析歷史降雨數(shù)據(jù)和泥石流災(zāi)害資料的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建泥石流降雨總量臨界線,可實(shí)現(xiàn)每分鐘不間斷的連續(xù)預(yù)警。通過布置在小流域內(nèi)的各類監(jiān)測設(shè)備所組成的無線傳感器網(wǎng)絡(luò),實(shí)時獲取小流域內(nèi)的降雨量、典型物源的含水率和孔隙水壓力、泥石流次聲信號、泥位信息、泥石流視頻影像等數(shù)據(jù)。采用遞進(jìn)式泥石流分級預(yù)警系統(tǒng),從以氣象惡化提醒為主的短期預(yù)警,到以泥石流降雨總量臨界線為核心,輔助設(shè)備為補(bǔ)充的臨災(zāi)預(yù)警,實(shí)現(xiàn)了遞進(jìn)式的泥石流分級預(yù)警目標(biāo),為居民和游客的安全撤離爭取寶貴時間。論文共分8章,第1章為緒論,介紹了選題依據(jù)、研究意義、總結(jié)國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀、并介紹論文內(nèi)容、技術(shù)路線及主要創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。第2章從地形地貌、地層巖性、地質(zhì)構(gòu)造、地震、氣象水文和植被條件六個方面介紹了南窖小流域發(fā)育地質(zhì)背景。第3章詳細(xì)介紹了南窖小流域溝谷地質(zhì)特征。第4章介紹了南窖小流域泥石流特征評判及運(yùn)動特征。第5章介紹了南窖小流域內(nèi)7個溝谷的危險(xiǎn)性評價和全流域的泥石流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性分區(qū)。第6章介紹了泥石流短臨預(yù)警的構(gòu)建,包括短期預(yù)警和臨災(zāi)預(yù)警。提出“一個降雨過程”概念,構(gòu)建了泥石流降雨總量臨界線。第7章介紹了泥石流短臨預(yù)警的實(shí)施,提出遞進(jìn)式泥石流分級預(yù)警思路及預(yù)警的解除。第8章為結(jié)論,總結(jié)了論文所有內(nèi)容。
[Abstract]:Debris flow is a kind of geological hazard that often occurs in mountainous area. Because of its high population density and frequent debris flow disaster, it seriously threatens the personal and property safety of local residents and visitors. The prediction and early warning study of debris flow in Nanjiao small watershed, This paper takes the Nanjiao small watershed in Fangshan District of Beijing as the research object and studies the characteristics of valley development in Nanjiao small watershed on the basis of field geological survey. The indexes of evaluating debris flow risk are selected, and the subjective indexes are obtained by AHP, entropy method and combined weighting method based on game theory, respectively. Objective and combined weights. Then the fuzzy C-means clustering method, which is optimized by the universal gravity search algorithm, The risk classification results of debris flow in 7 gully valleys (including 6 primary branch gullies and main gully forming sections) in small watershed were obtained. The risk zoning of Nanjiao small watershed was carried out by means of GIS tool. Vulnerability zoning and risk zoning. Field geological description, debris flow characteristics evaluation, The risk assessment of debris flow in seven valleys and the risk zoning of debris flow in the whole basin are used as the medium and long term prediction information of debris flow in Nanjiao small watershed. A summary of "one rainfall process" is put forward in view of the complicated rainfall situation in nature. Based on the analysis of historical rainfall data and debris flow disaster data, The critical line of debris flow rainfall amount can be constructed to realize continuous early warning every minute. The rainfall in small watershed can be obtained in real time by wireless sensor network composed of various monitoring devices arranged in small watershed. The moisture content and pore water pressure of typical source, infrasound signal of debris flow, mud level information, video image of debris flow and so on. By using the critical line of debris flow rainfall as the core and auxiliary equipment as the supplement, the paper realizes the progressive debris flow classification warning goal, and buys valuable time for the safe evacuation of residents and tourists. The paper is divided into 8 chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, which introduces the basis and significance of the topic, summarizes the current research situation at home and abroad, and introduces the content, technical route and main innovation points of the thesis. Chapter 2 includes topography and geomorphology, stratigraphic lithology, geological structure, earthquake, etc. The geological background of Nanjiao small watershed is introduced from six aspects of meteorological, hydrology and vegetation conditions. Chapter 3 introduces the geological characteristics of the valley in Nanjiao small watershed in detail, and chapter 4 introduces the characteristics of debris flow in Nanjiao small watershed and its special features of movement. Chapter 5 introduces the risk assessment of seven gullies in Nanjiao small watershed and the risk zoning of debris flow in the whole basin. Chapter 6 introduces the construction of short-impending early warning of debris flow. The concept of "one rainfall process" is put forward, and the critical line of total amount of debris flow rainfall is constructed. Chapter 7 introduces the implementation of short-impending early warning of debris flow. This paper puts forward the idea of progressive debris flow classification early warning and its release. Chapter 8 is the conclusion and summarizes all the contents of the paper.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：P642.23

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