本文選題：硫酸鹽氣溶膠　切入點：東亞季風降水　出處：《浙江大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：全球變暖是21世紀人類面臨的最嚴峻挑戰(zhàn)之一。然而在全球范圍達成科學、經(jīng)濟、公平的溫室氣體減排方案一直是應(yīng)對氣候變化工作的焦點和難點。作為應(yīng)對氣候變化危機的后備計劃,地球工程可能導(dǎo)致亞非洲季風減弱,威脅世界近2/3人口的生存和發(fā)展。中國位于東亞季風區(qū),氣候的變化和人們的生產(chǎn)生活備受季風降水的影響。作為自然類似物的火山硫酸鹽氣溶膠為我們了解平流層地球工程對東亞季風降水的影響提供了重要的參考。本研究利用兩套火山重建指數(shù)、一套樹輪降水重建數(shù)據(jù)MADA、一套歷史記錄匯編的災(zāi)害指數(shù),分析了過去700年不同類型的火山事件對中國季風降水的時空分布格局的影響。疊加分析法(SEA)和蒙特卡洛模型檢驗結(jié)果顯示北半球火山硫酸鹽氣溶膠的注入會導(dǎo)致中國降水持續(xù)兩到三年的顯著減少,甚至可能導(dǎo)致中國發(fā)生干旱事件,且注入的氣溶膠量越多,這種干旱效應(yīng)越明顯。空間疊加分析的結(jié)果顯示：1)在火山氣溶膠注入平流層的量超過一至兩倍皮納圖博火山注入量后的0-2年里,中國東部顯著干旱的地區(qū)呈現(xiàn)往南移的趨勢；2)在火山氣溶膠注入后的2-5年里,中國東北和西北地區(qū)大面積干旱化。而當火山氣溶膠只注入南半球平流層后,則可能使中國地區(qū)尤其是東北和西北地區(qū)濕潤化。為了驗證以上結(jié)果和評估模型的模擬能力以進行機理分析,本研究進一步應(yīng)用MADA和四套模型模擬數(shù)據(jù)開展了過去550年各類火山事件對東亞夏季季風降水的時空影響分析。時間序列的SEA結(jié)果顯示,在四個模型模擬下,東亞夏季季風降水對北半球三類火山事件的響應(yīng)與MADA基本一致,在火山硫酸鹽氣溶膠注入當年和注入后第一年都顯著下降,但在南半球火山氣溶膠后,不同模型的響應(yīng)情況不同�？臻g分布的SEA結(jié)果顯示,不同模型對南、北半球火山氣溶膠的響應(yīng)存在較大的差異,差異產(chǎn)生的原因還有待進一步探索和進行機理分析。因此,基于當代氣候變化和頻發(fā)的水旱災(zāi)害的基本事實,本研究的結(jié)論對了解硫酸鹽氣溶膠的氣候效應(yīng)提供了長時間尺度的參考,從歷史角度填補了認識的空白,同時可為我們區(qū)分工業(yè)革命以來自然和人為因素對氣候變化的影響提供參考。此外,本研究的結(jié)論對平流層氣溶膠工程的氣候效應(yīng)具有重大理論借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:Global warming is one of the most serious challenges facing mankind in the 21st century. A fair greenhouse gas abatement programme has been the focus and difficulty of efforts to tackle climate change. As a backup plan to the climate change crisis, geoengineering could lead to the weakening of the monsoon in Asia and Africa. Threatening the survival and development of nearly two-thirds of the world's population. China is located in the East Asian monsoon region, The climate change and people's production and life are influenced by the monsoon precipitation. The volcanic sulfate aerosol, as a natural analogue, provides an important reference for us to understand the influence of stratospheric geo-engineering on the monsoon precipitation in East Asia. In this study, two sets of volcanic reconstruction indices were used. A set of tree ring precipitation reconstruction data MADAA, a set of historical records compiled disaster index, The effects of different types of volcanic events over the past 700 years on the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of monsoon precipitation in China are analyzed. The results of superposition analysis (SEAA) and Monte Carlo model test show that the injection of volcanic sulfate aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere will result in. The precipitation in China has decreased significantly for two to three years. It could even lead to a drought in China, and the more aerosols injected, The more obvious this drought effect is, the more significant the spatial superposition analysis shows that in the 0-2 years since volcanic aerosols have been injected into the stratosphere by more than one to two times the amount injected into the Pinatubo volcano, During the 2-5 years after volcanic aerosol injection, large areas of northeast and northwest China became arid. However, when volcanic aerosols were injected into the stratosphere of the southern hemisphere, In order to verify the above results and evaluate the simulation ability of the model for mechanism analysis, In this study, the temporal and spatial effects of various volcanic events on the summer monsoon precipitation in East Asia over the past 550 years were further analyzed by using MADA and four sets of model simulation data. The SEA results of the time series show that, under the four models, The response of East Asia summer monsoon precipitation to three types of volcanic events in the Northern Hemisphere is basically the same as that of MADA. It decreased significantly in the year and the first year after the volcanic sulfate aerosol injection, but after the volcanic aerosol injection in the Southern Hemisphere, The responses of different models are different. The spatial distribution of SEA results show that the responses of different models to volcanic aerosols in the northern and southern hemispheres are quite different, and the causes of the differences need further exploration and mechanism analysis. Based on the basic facts of contemporary climate change and frequent flood and drought disasters, the conclusions of this study provide a long time scale reference for understanding the climate effects of sulfate aerosols, and fill the gaps in understanding from the historical point of view. At the same time, it can provide a reference for us to distinguish the impacts of natural and man-made factors on climate change since the Industrial Revolution. In addition, the conclusion of this study is of great theoretical significance for the climatic effects of stratospheric aerosol engineering.
【學位授予單位】：浙江大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P426.6;P317.3

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