本文關鍵詞： 滑坡預報 水土耦合 CRESLIDE模型 CREST模型 月河　出處：《氣象》2017年09期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：降水誘發(fā)型滑坡災害涉及水文與土壤失穩(wěn)過程,是個非常復雜的預報難題。本研究應用CRESLIDE(Coupled Routing and Excess Storage and Slope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium)模型,研究基于水土耦合機制的流域滑坡預報。模型輸入格點降水由基于流域逐小時加密雨量站的反距離權重法插值獲取;基于GIS、DEM和遙感技術,提取滑坡流域下墊面信息;采用分布式水文模型CREST模擬預報出滑坡研究區(qū)域的流域水文過程,作為中間變量驅動滑坡模型SLIDE,實現(xiàn)降水誘發(fā)型滑坡的預報。選擇陜南月河流域2012年7月3—5日降水誘發(fā)型滑坡過程進行模擬預報,驗證模型的適用性。結果表明,基于CRESLIDE模型的流域水土耦合滑坡預報模型在滑坡時空預報上表現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定;通過ROC曲線分析CRESLIDE模型取得的特異性(87.8%)和敏感性(52.9%)均較好;本研究基于流域水土耦合機制研究滑坡機理預報,耦合了流域水文過程與土力學過程,使得流域水文模擬更為合理,在滑坡的預報與早期預警中表現(xiàn)良好,對同類滑坡預報有一定的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:The precipitation induced landslide is a very complicated problem in predicting hydrology and soil instability. The CRESLIDE(Coupled Routing and Excess Storage and Slope-Infiltration-Distributed equilibrium model is used in this study. Based on the coupling mechanism of soil and water, the model input lattice precipitation is obtained by the inverse distance weight interpolation based on the hourly precipitation station, and the underlying surface information is extracted based on GIS Dem and remote sensing technology. A distributed hydrological model (CREST) is used to simulate and forecast the hydrological process in the landslide study area. As an intermediate variable driven landslide model, SLIDE is used to predict the precipitation induced landslide. The process of precipitation induced landslide is simulated and forecasted from July 2012 to July 2012 in the Yuehe River Basin of southern Shaanxi, and the applicability of the model is verified. The coupled landslide prediction model based on CRESLIDE model is stable in time and space prediction of landslide, and the specificity and sensitivity of CRESLIDE model obtained by ROC curve analysis are good. Based on the coupling mechanism of soil and water, landslide mechanism prediction is studied in this paper. The hydrological process and soil mechanics process are coupled, which makes basin hydrological simulation more reasonable and performs well in landslide prediction and early warning. It can be used for reference for the similar landslide prediction.
【作者單位】： 國家氣象中心;河海大學水文水資源與水利工程科學國家重點實驗室;河海大學水文水資源學院;陜西省氣候中心;中國地質環(huán)境監(jiān)測院(國土資源部地質災害應急技術指導中心);
【基金】：國家自然科學基金項目(51509043,C1775111) 國家重點研發(fā)計劃(2016YFC0402702、2016YFC0402701) 中國氣象局首批青年英才計劃(2014-2017);中國氣象局氣象預報業(yè)務關鍵技術發(fā)展專項[YBGJXM(2017)06] 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務費項目(2015828514) 水文水資源與水利工程科學國家重點實驗室基金(20165042212) 國家氣象中心水文氣象預報團隊項目共同資助
【分類號】：P642.22

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