本文關(guān)鍵詞： Logistic 回歸模型 評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo) 易發(fā)性區(qū)劃 氣象預(yù)警模型　出處：《成都理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：安徽省黃山市歙縣地處皖南山區(qū),區(qū)域地質(zhì)環(huán)境脆弱,加之不合理的人類工程活動(dòng)進(jìn)一步惡化地質(zhì)環(huán)境,在降雨作用下導(dǎo)致災(zāi)害頻發(fā),造成地質(zhì)災(zāi)害表現(xiàn)出“點(diǎn)多面廣、突發(fā)性強(qiáng)、災(zāi)害損失大”等特點(diǎn),因此地質(zhì)災(zāi)害防治與預(yù)警工作顯得尤為重要。但是現(xiàn)有地質(zhì)災(zāi)害預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)過分強(qiáng)調(diào)氣象預(yù)警,沒有實(shí)現(xiàn)降雨與地質(zhì)災(zāi)害形成的地質(zhì)條件的有機(jī)結(jié)合,預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)精度不高。本文以研究區(qū)502個(gè)歷史災(zāi)害點(diǎn)及其部分災(zāi)害點(diǎn)對(duì)應(yīng)的降雨數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),深入研究了黃山市歙縣地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃方法、降雨誘發(fā)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的時(shí)空分布與降雨的關(guān)系,完成了研究區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃,確定了降雨臨界值表達(dá)式,創(chuàng)建了區(qū)域地質(zhì)災(zāi)害氣象預(yù)警方法,實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害區(qū)域氣象預(yù)警。本文取得的主要研究成果如下:(1)歙縣易發(fā)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害類型主要為滑坡、崩塌和不穩(wěn)定斜坡,主要呈現(xiàn)出主要分布在偏東、東北的城鎮(zhèn),沿控制性山脈、斷層具有分帶性,沿道路線性分布明顯,低海拔地區(qū)具有不均勻性,與人類工程活動(dòng)強(qiáng)烈程度和降雨量大小呈明顯正相關(guān)關(guān)系。(2)選取影響該區(qū)域地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)生的10個(gè)因子(高程、坡高、坡度、坡體形態(tài)、地層巖性、斷層分布、河流切割、植被覆蓋率、道路密度、居民點(diǎn)分布)建立了地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。根據(jù)研究區(qū)歷史地質(zhì)災(zāi)害點(diǎn)在各評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)內(nèi)的點(diǎn)密度和點(diǎn)比例突變點(diǎn)作為該指標(biāo)的二次分級(jí)點(diǎn),并對(duì)各級(jí)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行量化歸一。(3)采用Logistic回歸模型建立了研究區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃評(píng)價(jià)模型,以研究區(qū)歷史災(zāi)害點(diǎn)和隨機(jī)非災(zāi)害點(diǎn)作為統(tǒng)計(jì)樣本,建立歙縣地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性(Pa)的概率計(jì)算公式,并繪制了研究區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性區(qū)劃圖。區(qū)劃結(jié)果與研究區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)育實(shí)情相符合,效果較好。(4)確定了降雨單因素誘發(fā)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的概率(Pb)計(jì)算公式和降雨量臨界表達(dá)式。以前期降雨量與當(dāng)日日降雨量作為評(píng)級(jí)指標(biāo),建立了降雨單因素誘發(fā)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害Logistic回歸模型,由此確定了前期累計(jì)降雨量的范圍、降雨單因素誘發(fā)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的概率(Pb)計(jì)算公式和降雨量臨界表達(dá)式。(5)建立了地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的氣象預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)模型,將研究區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性概率值Pa作為空間因子,將降雨單因素誘發(fā)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害概率值Pb作為時(shí)間和空間的輔助因子,通過Pa與Pb進(jìn)行乘疊,得到地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)生的實(shí)時(shí)空間預(yù)報(bào)概率值Pc。根據(jù)Pc值將降雨誘發(fā)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害時(shí)空預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)等級(jí)分為5級(jí),不同等級(jí)對(duì)應(yīng)不同程度的防御措施。
[Abstract]:Shexian County, Huangshan City, Anhui Province is located in southern Anhui mountain area, the regional geological environment is fragile, coupled with unreasonable human engineering activities to further deteriorate the geological environment, resulting in frequent disasters under the action of rainfall. Geological hazards are characterized by "wide points, strong sudden occurrence and large disaster losses". Therefore, geological disaster prevention and early warning work is particularly important, but the existing geological disaster early warning and forecast too much emphasis on meteorological early warning, did not achieve the organic combination of rainfall and geological hazards formed by the geological conditions. The prediction accuracy is not high. Based on the rainfall data of 502 historical disaster sites and some disaster sites in the study area, the method of geological hazard susceptibility zoning in Shexian County, Huangshan City, is studied in this paper. The relationship between spatial and temporal distribution of geological hazards induced by rainfall and rainfall, the regionalization of geological hazard susceptibility in the study area is completed, the expression of rainfall critical value is determined, and the method of regional geological hazard meteorological early warning is established. The main research results obtained in this paper are as follows: 1) the main types of geological hazards in Shexian County are landslide, collapse and unstable slope, mainly distributed in the east. The northeast town, along the control mountain range, the fault has the zonation, along the road the linear distribution is obvious, the low elevation area has the inhomogeneity. There are 10 factors (elevation, slope height, slope degree, slope shape, stratigraphic lithology) that affect the occurrence of geological hazards in this area, which have a significant positive correlation with the intensity of human engineering activities and rainfall. Fault distribution, river cutting, vegetation coverage, road density. The evaluation index system of geological hazard vulnerability is established. According to the point density and the point proportion mutation point of the historical geological hazard site in each evaluation index in the study area, the secondary grading point of the index is established. The evaluation model of geological hazard susceptibility regionalization in the study area is established by using Logistic regression model. The probability calculation formula of geological hazard susceptibility in Shexian County is established by taking historical disaster points and random non-disaster points as statistical samples in the study area. The zoning map of the susceptibility of geological hazards in the study area is drawn. The results of the regionalization are in accordance with the development of geological hazards in the study area. The calculation formula of probability and critical expression of rainfall induced geological hazard by single factor rainfall are determined. The index of rating is pre-precipitation and daily rainfall on the same day. The Logistic regression model of geological hazards induced by single factor rainfall was established, and the range of accumulated rainfall was determined. The calculation formula of probability Pb) and the critical expression of rainfall induced geological hazard by single factor rainfall. 5) the meteorological early warning and forecasting model of geological hazard is established. The probabilistic value Pa of geological hazard in the study area is taken as spatial factor, and the probability value of geological hazard induced by rainfall is regarded as the auxiliary factor of time and space, and the probability value of geological hazard induced by rainfall is multiplied by Pa and Pb. The probability value of real time spatial prediction of geological hazards is obtained. According to the values of PC, the spatial and temporal early warning and prediction levels of rainfall induced geological hazards are divided into 5 levels, and different grades correspond to different degree of defense measures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：P694

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