【摘要】：獨立微電網(wǎng)將分布式電源、儲能裝置、區(qū)域負荷及控制裝置有效整合,形成單一可控單元,在海島、沙漠等偏遠地區(qū)的開發(fā)上有著廣泛的應用前景。由于大量間歇性可再生能源發(fā)電的接入及系統(tǒng)容量較小,獨立微電網(wǎng)中的隨機性問題愈發(fā)凸顯。制定有效的系統(tǒng)控制策略,實現(xiàn)獨立微電網(wǎng)穩(wěn)定高效的運行,在實際開發(fā)建設中有著重要的意義和迫切的需求。 本文考慮到負荷和可再生能源發(fā)電在實際運行中的波動導致提前制定的調(diào)度計劃無法有效執(zhí)行,在對負荷可再生能源發(fā)電超短時預測的基礎上,提出了一種針對獨立微電網(wǎng)可控電源功率輸出的協(xié)調(diào)控制策略。 論文首先總結了當前獨立微電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)發(fā)展建設歷程,介紹了典型獨立微電網(wǎng)結構,建立了常見分布式電源的數(shù)學模型；研究了集中控制模式下可控電源的控制原理,考慮到盡可能利用可再生能源,研究了其最大功率跟蹤發(fā)電模式的原理及實現(xiàn)方法。其次,探討了獨立微電網(wǎng)內(nèi)負荷可再生能源發(fā)電超短時預測的必要性,通過總結分析常規(guī)電力系統(tǒng)中負荷超短期預測方法,采用基于最小二乘支持向量機的負荷實時數(shù)據(jù)序列直接預測方法；在考慮可再生能源間歇性的實際情況下,采用與負荷預測相同方法實現(xiàn)對風力發(fā)電的超短時預測,通過相似日選擇實現(xiàn)對光伏發(fā)電功率的直接預測。再次,提出了包含日前調(diào)度計劃和在線控制策略的獨立微電網(wǎng)多時間尺度控制策略,建立控制系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡架構；在滿足負荷需求和電源約束條件的基礎上建立了集中控制式的獨立微電網(wǎng)日前調(diào)度模型,綜合考慮了燃料成本、維護成本和排放成本等多種目標,并引入粒子群算法對優(yōu)化調(diào)度模型進行求解；引入了微電網(wǎng)凈負荷的概念,在對凈負荷超短時預測的基礎上,提出了一種在線控制策略,以保證日前調(diào)度計劃有效性為目標,控制系統(tǒng)內(nèi)可控電源功率輸出,提前響應凈負荷變化。最后,針對某個海島微電網(wǎng)算例,制定了其日前調(diào)度計劃；驗證了負荷和可再生能源發(fā)電超短時預測方法的有效性；并得到在線控制策略結果；與不含在線控制策略僅按日前計劃運行對比分析,驗證了本文的多時間尺度調(diào)度策略的效果。
[Abstract]:Independent microgrid effectively integrates distributed power supply, energy storage device, regional load and control device to form a single controllable unit, which has a wide range of application prospects in the development of islands, deserts and other remote areas. Due to the small access and system capacity of a large number of intermittent renewable energy power generation, the randomness problem in independent microgrid is becoming more and more prominent. It is of great significance and urgent need to formulate effective system control strategy to realize the stable and efficient operation of independent microgrid. In this paper, it is considered that the fluctuation of load and renewable energy power generation in actual operation leads to the failure of the scheduling plan made in advance, on the basis of ultra-short-term prediction of load renewable energy power generation. A coordinated control strategy for controllable power output of independent microgrid is proposed. Firstly, the paper summarizes the development and construction process of the current independent microgrid system, introduces the typical structure of the independent microgrid, and establishes the mathematical model of the common distributed power supply. The control principle of controllable power supply in centralized control mode is studied. Considering the possible use of renewable energy, the principle and implementation method of maximum power tracking power generation mode are studied. Secondly, the necessity of ultra-short-term forecasting of load renewable energy generation in independent microgrid is discussed, and the ultra-short-term forecasting method of load in conventional power system is summarized and analyzed. The direct prediction method of load real-time data sequence based on least square support vector machine is adopted. Considering the intermittent of renewable energy, the same method as load forecasting is used to realize the ultra-short time prediction of wind power generation, and the direct prediction of photovoltaic power generation power is realized by similar day selection. Thirdly, a multi-time scale control strategy for independent microgrid including pre-day dispatching plan and on-line control strategy is proposed, and the network architecture of the control system is established. On the basis of satisfying load demand and power supply constraint, a centralized control model of independent microgrid is established, which takes into account many objectives, such as fuel cost, maintenance cost and emission cost. Particle swarm optimization algorithm is introduced to solve the optimal scheduling model. In this paper, the concept of net load of microgrid is introduced, and on the basis of ultra-short time prediction of net load, an on-line control strategy is proposed to control the power output of controllable power supply in the system in order to ensure the effectiveness of the dispatching plan before the day. Respond to net load changes in advance. Finally, for an example of an island microgrid, the pre-day dispatching plan is worked out, the effectiveness of the ultra-short-term forecasting method for load and renewable energy generation is verified, and the results of on-line control strategy are obtained. Compared with that without online control strategy, the effect of the multi-time scale scheduling strategy in this paper is verified by comparing and analyzing the results of the multi-time scale scheduling strategy without online control strategy.
【學位授予單位】：浙江大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM73

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