【摘要】：當(dāng)前電力企業(yè)對(duì)變壓器檢修、退運(yùn)計(jì)劃制定的關(guān)注點(diǎn)多集中于變壓器的可靠性，常出現(xiàn)過修、提前退役的現(xiàn)象，導(dǎo)致了巨大的資源浪費(fèi)。現(xiàn)有的變壓器絕緣狀態(tài)評(píng)估方法未能很好解決評(píng)估因素不相容、影響程度不相同的問題，而對(duì)于變壓器的可靠性壽命和經(jīng)濟(jì)性壽命評(píng)估研究較少。因此，需要綜合考慮變壓器運(yùn)行的可靠性和經(jīng)濟(jì)性，對(duì)變壓器進(jìn)行絕緣狀態(tài)評(píng)估和可靠性壽命及經(jīng)濟(jì)性壽命評(píng)估，以便制定恰當(dāng)?shù)臋z修、退運(yùn)計(jì)劃，從而提高電力企業(yè)的管理水平。所以，本課題的研究具有一定的學(xué)術(shù)意義和工程價(jià)值。 本文優(yōu)選了與變壓器狀態(tài)緊密相關(guān)的特征量并建立了絕緣狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)體系，在此基礎(chǔ)上研究了基于集對(duì)分析和證據(jù)理論融合的變壓器絕緣狀態(tài)評(píng)估方法；以變壓器老化規(guī)律為基礎(chǔ)，建立了變壓器的健康指數(shù)計(jì)算模型和故障概率推算模型；在考慮運(yùn)行規(guī)律和單臺(tái)變壓器影響的基礎(chǔ)上，建立了變壓器可靠性壽命評(píng)估模型；最后，在故障率曲線的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合變壓器的相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素，計(jì)算了檢修、更換情況下的年均凈收益，并建立了變壓器經(jīng)濟(jì)性壽命模型。論文所取得的主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新性成果有： ①在建立變壓器絕緣狀態(tài)評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系的基礎(chǔ)上，確定了指標(biāo)間的權(quán)重和指標(biāo)缺失時(shí)權(quán)重調(diào)整方法，采用集對(duì)分析理論處理指標(biāo)的模糊性，對(duì)不同因子狀態(tài)信息進(jìn)行證據(jù)融合，最終建立了變壓器絕緣狀態(tài)評(píng)估模型，并通過實(shí)例分析驗(yàn)證了模型的有效性。 ②將變壓器的絕緣狀態(tài)、運(yùn)行環(huán)境、檢修記錄和附件情況等因素進(jìn)行綜合考慮，結(jié)合變壓器老化規(guī)律，分別建立了變壓器的綜合健康指數(shù)和故障概率計(jì)算模型；結(jié)合統(tǒng)計(jì)規(guī)律及單臺(tái)變壓器的影響，最終建立了變壓器的可靠性壽命評(píng)估模型，通過實(shí)例驗(yàn)證了模型的有效性。 ③分析了與變壓器相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)要素，分別對(duì)供電收入、運(yùn)行維護(hù)成本、事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成本、廣義折舊成本和直接檢修成本進(jìn)行了計(jì)算，建立了檢修、更換情況下的年均凈收益模型，以年均凈收益最大為判據(jù)，建立了變壓器的經(jīng)濟(jì)壽命評(píng)估模型。通過實(shí)例研究，初步證明了該模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:In the current electric power enterprise, the focus on the transformer overhaul and withdrawal plan is more concentrated on the reliability of the transformer, and the phenomenon of overrepair and early retirement has led to a huge resource waste. The existing method for evaluating the insulation state of the transformer fails to solve the problem that the evaluation factors are not compatible and the degree of influence is different, and the reliability life and the economic life evaluation of the transformer are less. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the reliability and economy of the operation of the transformer, to evaluate the insulation state of the transformer and to evaluate the reliability life and the economic life, so as to develop the proper maintenance and retirement plan, so as to improve the management level of the electric power enterprise. Therefore, the research of the subject has certain academic significance and engineering value. In this paper, the characteristic quantity which is closely related to the state of the transformer and the evaluation system of the insulation state are set up. On this basis, the method for evaluating the insulation state of the transformer based on the fusion of the analysis of the transformer and the theory of evidence is studied, and the aging rule of the transformer is based on the aging rule of the transformer. In this paper, the health index calculation model and the failure probability estimation model of the transformer are established; on the basis of considering the operation rule and the influence of a single transformer, the reliability life evaluation model of the transformer is established; and finally, on the basis of the failure rate curve, the relevant economic factors of the transformer are combined In addition, the average annual net income of the overhaul and replacement is calculated, and the economic life mode of the transformer is established. C. Key innovative results achieved in the paper In the paper, based on the establishment of the evaluation index system of the insulation state of the transformer, the weight adjustment method for the weight and the index loss among the indexes is determined, and the data set is used to process the index. In this paper, the evaluation model of the insulation state of the transformer is established, and the model is verified by the case analysis. The effectiveness of the transformer is to comprehensively consider the factors such as the insulation status of the transformer, the operating environment, the maintenance record and the accessory condition. In combination with the aging rule of the transformer, the comprehensive health index and the failure probability calculation model of the transformer are respectively established, and the statistical law and the single transformer are combined. In this paper, the reliability life evaluation model of the transformer is established, and the model is verified by the examples. The efficiency of the model is analyzed. The economic factors related to the transformer are analyzed. The cost of power supply, operation and maintenance, accident risk, generalized depreciation cost and direct maintenance cost are calculated. The annual net profit model of the maintenance and replacement is established, and the average annual net profit model is established. The maximum benefit is the criterion, and the transfects of the transformer are established. The model of economic life assessment. It is proved by the case study.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM41

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