【摘要】：可用輸電能力(Available Transfer Capability, ATC)不僅是指導(dǎo)電力市場(chǎng)交易順利進(jìn)行的重要指標(biāo),也是評(píng)估系統(tǒng)安全可靠性的重要測(cè)度,對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)調(diào)度運(yùn)行與規(guī)劃建設(shè)具有重要的指導(dǎo)作用。近年來(lái),與ATC相關(guān)的輸電斷面辨識(shí)、確定性ATC計(jì)算、概率性ATC計(jì)算等問(wèn)題在分析計(jì)算領(lǐng)域受到了廣泛關(guān)注,但在大型區(qū)域電網(wǎng)互聯(lián)、新能源發(fā)電系統(tǒng)廣泛接入的條件下,傳統(tǒng)方法在全面考慮各方面的影響因素、計(jì)算速度與計(jì)算精度的平衡、不確定性因素的處理等方面遇到了新的挑戰(zhàn)。一方面,弱互聯(lián)的大型電網(wǎng)存在更多的穩(wěn)定性問(wèn)題,為了考慮暫態(tài)穩(wěn)定性等動(dòng)態(tài)約束條件,傳統(tǒng)確定性方法的計(jì)算時(shí)間將大幅度增加,難以滿(mǎn)足實(shí)用需求；另一方面,系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行方式的復(fù)雜多變導(dǎo)致不確定性因素大幅度增加,傳統(tǒng)概率分析方法在計(jì)算速度上遇到了瓶頸,而且針對(duì)風(fēng)電場(chǎng)、光伏電站等新增不確定性因素也需要建立更加適用的概率分析模型。本文以輸電斷面辨識(shí)、確定性ATC計(jì)算和概率性ATC計(jì)算為研究重點(diǎn),從計(jì)算方法的角度開(kāi)展研究。 提出了一種基于復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論的輸電斷面快速辨識(shí)方法。該方法基于電網(wǎng)的小世界特性提出了輸電介數(shù)指標(biāo)用于從輸電線路中辨識(shí)關(guān)鍵輸電環(huán)節(jié),然后采用GN算法對(duì)電網(wǎng)分區(qū)得到與關(guān)鍵輸電環(huán)節(jié)相關(guān)的分區(qū)斷面,最后通過(guò)分區(qū)斷面的優(yōu)化組合快速辨識(shí)輸電斷面同時(shí)給出重要性排序。對(duì)CEPRI-36系統(tǒng)與某省級(jí)電網(wǎng)的算例表明,新算法計(jì)算量小,辨識(shí)結(jié)果能夠完整地反映出電網(wǎng)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)與運(yùn)行方式的特點(diǎn)并計(jì)及不確定性因素的影響,對(duì)于復(fù)雜多變的大電網(wǎng)具有很好的適應(yīng)性。 提出了一種考慮方向性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性的大型互聯(lián)電網(wǎng)ATC快速計(jì)算方法。該方法在以重復(fù)潮流為基本框架的ATC計(jì)算過(guò)程中,引入了3種具有實(shí)際指導(dǎo)意義的功率增長(zhǎng)方向以考慮不同功率增長(zhǎng)過(guò)程對(duì)ATC計(jì)算結(jié)果的影響,同時(shí)考慮暫態(tài)失穩(wěn)概率,求取系統(tǒng)在承擔(dān)不同失穩(wěn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)的ATC。此外,該方法還通過(guò)優(yōu)化校驗(yàn)過(guò)程與自適應(yīng)步長(zhǎng)控制提高了計(jì)算速度。某省級(jí)電網(wǎng)的算例表明,所提算法能夠滿(mǎn)足大型互聯(lián)電網(wǎng)在線應(yīng)用需求,不同功率增長(zhǎng)方向和失穩(wěn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)下的ATC結(jié)果將為運(yùn)行人員提供更加全面的輸電能力信息。 提出了一種重復(fù)潮流與連續(xù)潮流相結(jié)合的主從迭代ATC改進(jìn)算法。該方法以重復(fù)潮流為主迭代過(guò)程,自適應(yīng)地計(jì)算迭代步長(zhǎng)和功率增長(zhǎng)方向,當(dāng)潮流不收斂時(shí)轉(zhuǎn)入連續(xù)潮流的從迭代過(guò)程,并將重復(fù)潮流的步長(zhǎng)與方向作為連續(xù)潮流的功率調(diào)整目標(biāo),從而既發(fā)揮了重復(fù)潮流靈活性的特點(diǎn),也確保了潮流軌跡的收斂性和穩(wěn)定性。此外,還將連續(xù)潮流應(yīng)用到N-1約束校驗(yàn)過(guò)程和多斷面功率控制。CEPRI-36系統(tǒng)和華中-華北聯(lián)網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的算例結(jié)果表明,改進(jìn)算法能夠靈活地考慮多方面影響因素,計(jì)算速度快,而且對(duì)潮流收斂性較差的大型電網(wǎng)具有很好的適應(yīng)性。 提出了一種基于拉丁超立方采樣和聚類(lèi)思想的概率ATC快速計(jì)算方法。該方法在蒙特卡羅仿真的采樣過(guò)程中,采用拉丁超立方采樣提高采樣效率,并利用Cholesky分解處理輸入隨機(jī)變量的相關(guān)性；對(duì)于得到的大量樣本,采用聚類(lèi)分析技術(shù)得到相似度較高的分類(lèi)場(chǎng)景,推導(dǎo)出最優(yōu)潮流靈敏度快速計(jì)算這些分類(lèi)場(chǎng)景的ATC。IEEE-RTS系統(tǒng)的算例結(jié)果表明,所提算法計(jì)算速度快,計(jì)算結(jié)果精度高、魯棒性好,并且針對(duì)不同的應(yīng)用需求可以實(shí)現(xiàn)計(jì)算精度與計(jì)算時(shí)間的協(xié)調(diào)。此外,算例結(jié)果還表明風(fēng)速相關(guān)性增強(qiáng)了ATC的波動(dòng)性,需要在計(jì)算模型中予以考慮,以確保分析結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性。 提出了一種基于隨機(jī)響應(yīng)面法的概率ATC快速計(jì)算方法。該方法將隨機(jī)響應(yīng)面法應(yīng)用到概率ATC計(jì)算中,將輸入隨機(jī)變量和輸出響應(yīng)表達(dá)為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)正態(tài)隨機(jī)變量的函數(shù)關(guān)系,利用小規(guī)模的采樣快速得到ATC的概率分布。為了處理分布函數(shù)未知且具有相關(guān)性的連續(xù)隨機(jī)變量,引入了多項(xiàng)式正態(tài)變換結(jié)合正交變換技術(shù)；在考慮離散隨機(jī)變量時(shí),將ATC概率分布分解為連續(xù)部分與離散部分分別求取。對(duì)含風(fēng)電場(chǎng)的IEEE-RTS系統(tǒng)的算例表明隨機(jī)響應(yīng)面法計(jì)算速度快,計(jì)算精度滿(mǎn)足實(shí)用需求。 針對(duì)考慮時(shí)序特性的概率ATC計(jì)算,提出了一種基于馬爾科夫鏈蒙特卡羅仿真的風(fēng)光發(fā)電功率時(shí)間序列模擬方法。該模型直接對(duì)風(fēng)電場(chǎng)、光伏電站的發(fā)電功率進(jìn)行時(shí)序狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移過(guò)程建模,采用Gibbs抽樣生成單個(gè)或多個(gè)間歇性電源的發(fā)電功率時(shí)間序列,將高階馬爾科夫鏈的思想應(yīng)用到多間歇性電源模擬以考慮彼此之間的相關(guān)性。對(duì)德國(guó)2家電力公司所管轄的風(fēng)電場(chǎng)、光伏電站進(jìn)行了發(fā)電功率時(shí)間序列模擬,結(jié)果表明所提方法具有較高的模擬精度,而且能很好地考慮多個(gè)間歇性電源間的相關(guān)性。
[Abstract]:Available Transfer Capability (ATC) is not only an important index to guide the smooth progress of the power market, but also an important measure to evaluate the system safety and reliability. In recent years, the problems of transmission cross-section identification, deterministic ATC calculation and probabilistic ATC calculation related to ATC are widely concerned in the field of analysis and calculation, but under the condition that the large-scale regional power grid is connected and the new energy power generation system is widely accessed, The traditional method has encountered a new challenge in the aspects of the comprehensive consideration of the factors of the influence, the balance between the calculation speed and the calculation accuracy, the processing of the uncertainty factors, and so on. On the one hand, there are more stability problems in the weak-connected large-scale power grid. In order to consider the dynamic constraint conditions such as transient stability, the calculation time of the traditional deterministic method will be greatly increased, and it is difficult to meet the practical demand; on the other hand, The complex and changeable system operation mode results in a large increase in the uncertainty factor, and the traditional probability analysis method has a bottleneck in the calculation speed, and a more suitable probability analysis model is also required for the newly added uncertainty factors such as the wind farm and the photovoltaic power station. In this paper, based on the identification of power transmission section, the calculation of deterministic ATC and the calculation of probability ATC, the research is carried out from the angle of the calculation method. A rapid identification method of power transmission section based on complex network theory is proposed The method is based on the small world characteristics of the power grid, which is used for identifying the key transmission link from the power transmission line, and then using the GN algorithm to obtain the partition off related to the key transmission link by the GN algorithm. and finally, a transmission section is quickly identified by the combination of the section of the section and the importance bank is given at the same time An example of the CEPRI-36 system and a provincial power grid shows that the calculation of the new algorithm is small, and the identification result can completely reflect the characteristics of the power grid topology and the operation mode and take into account the influence of the uncertainty factors, and has good adaptability to the complex and changeable large power grid. In this paper, a kind of large-scale interconnected power grid ATC rapid meter considering the direction and risk is put forward. In the process of ATC calculation with repeated power flow as the basic frame, three kinds of power growth direction with practical guiding significance are introduced to take into account the influence of different power growth process on the calculation result of ATC, and the transient loss is considered. When the system is at the risk of different instability, the stability probability is obtained. ATC. In addition, the method is also improved by the optimization of the verification process and the adaptive step control An example of a provincial power grid shows that the proposed algorithm can meet the demand of on-line application of the large-scale interconnected power grid, and the ATC results in different power growth direction and the instability risk will provide more comprehensive power transmission for the operators. Force information. A master-slave iterative AT with a combination of a repeated flow and a continuous flow is presented. C. The method uses the repeated power flow as the main iterative process to adaptively calculate the iteration step size and the power growth direction, and when the power flow does not converge, the iterative process of the continuous power flow is transferred, and the step length and the direction of the repeated power flow are taken as the work of the continuous power flow. The goal of rate adjustment is not only the characteristic of the flexibility of the repeated power flow, but also the convergence of the power flow path. Performance and stability. In addition, the continuous flow is applied to the N-1 constraint checking process and the multi-break The results of the CEPRI-36 system and the Central China-North China networking system show that the improved algorithm can take into account many factors, the calculation speed is fast, and the large power grid with poor convergence is very important. Good adaptability. A probabilistic AT based on Latin hypercube sampling and clustering is presented. C. In the sampling process of the Monte-Carlo simulation, the sampling efficiency is improved by using the Latin hypercube sampling, and the correlation of the input random variables is processed by using the Cholesky decomposition process, and the similarity degree is obtained by the clustering analysis technique for a large number of samples obtained. The experimental results of the IEEE-RTS system show that the proposed algorithm is fast, the results are high, the robustness is good, and the calculation accuracy can be achieved for different application requirements. The calculation time is coordinated. In addition, the results of the example show that the correlation of wind speed increases the fluctuation of ATC and needs to be taken into consideration in the calculation model to ensure the distribution. The accuracy of the results is presented in this paper. The probability of the random response surface method is presented. In the method, the random response surface method is applied to the probability ATC calculation, and the input random variable and the output response are expressed as a function relation of the normal normal random variable, and the small-scale sampling is used to quickly In order to deal with a continuous random variable with an unknown distribution function and having a correlation, a polynomial normal transformation combined orthogonal transform technique is introduced, and when a discrete random variable is considered, the ATC probability distribution is decomposed into a continuous part The calculation results of the IEEE-RTS system with the wind farm show that the calculation speed of the random response surface method is fast, This paper presents a kind of wind and light emission based on the Markov chain Monte-Carlo simulation for the calculation of the probability ATC considering the time-sequence characteristics. The electric power time series simulation method is used for modeling the power generation power of the wind farm and the photovoltaic power station directly, Power generation power time series and application of high-order Markov chain to multi-intermittent power supply simulation In order to consider the correlation of each other, the power generation power time series of the wind farm and the photovoltaic power station under the jurisdiction of 2 electric power companies in Germany are simulated. The results show that the proposed method has high simulation precision and can be well considered.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TM744

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