【摘要】：20世紀70年代以來，我國在交聯(lián)聚乙烯（XLPE）電力電纜的生產和應用方面得到了快速的發(fā)展。隨著電纜數量的增多及運行時間的延長，XLPE電纜的老化故障頻繁，存在重大安全隱患，甚至造成停電事故，給生產和人民生活帶來諸多不便，并造成重大的經濟損失。因此，開展XLPE電力電纜的壽命預測研究，對于制定恰當的維護檢修策略，判斷電纜何時進行更換，保證電網的安全穩(wěn)定運行有著重要的安全意義與經濟價值。 經發(fā)現，電纜投入運行后，絕緣層會受到電、熱、機械力、環(huán)境等因素的作用而發(fā)生絕緣老化，導致電纜失效。因此為了評估電纜壽命，對絕緣材料的老化分析研究是非常有必要的。本文首先綜合分析了各種因素所導致的電纜絕緣老化現象與老化機理，及其對電纜安全運行的影響。然后，對電、熱單獨應力作用下的電纜絕緣老化壽命模型與加速老化試驗原理進行研究，在此基礎上分析了多因素老化的協(xié)同作用，對比研究了描述聯(lián)合電熱老化的諸多模型，及其對電熱協(xié)同作用的表示方法。 通過對電纜故障原因的統(tǒng)計分析發(fā)現，除絕緣老化外，外力破壞與安裝不當等原因造成的電纜故障也占很大比重，并且使得電纜在到達絕緣壽命前就已經發(fā)生故障。因此，為了正確評估電纜的實際運行壽命，提供有實際價值的決策信息，除了考慮電纜絕緣壽命，還需要結合電纜運行中的可靠性進行評估。 本文通過對XLPE電纜絕緣壽命與各老化應力之間的關系、多因素老化模型、電纜故障分析以及電纜可靠性進行了研究，提出了一種新的基于可靠性的電纜壽命預測方法，給出了XLPE電纜壽命預測指標體系與系統(tǒng)模型。根據失效數據的概率預測以及電纜的老化特性，建立了基于Weibull分布的電纜可靠性模型，并對模型參數進行研究，針對電纜失效的小樣本情況，采用LS-SVM回歸方法進行參數估計，并與常用的最小二乘法進行比較。最后通過對8.7/10KV XLPE電纜進行壽命預測與可靠性分析，驗證了絕緣老化壽命模型與可靠性模型的有效性，積累了一些經驗，，為實際應用奠定了基礎。
[Abstract]:Since the 1970s, the production and application of XLPE (XLPE) power cables have been developed rapidly in China. With the increase of the number of cables and the prolongation of operation time, the aging faults of XLPE cables are frequent, and there are serious hidden dangers of safety, even leading to power outages, which bring inconveniences to production and people's lives, and cause great economic losses. Therefore, the research on life prediction of XLPE power cable has important safety significance and economic value for making proper maintenance and repair strategy, judging when to replace the cable and ensuring the safe and stable operation of power grid. It is found that when the cable is put into operation, the insulation layer will be subjected to electrical, thermal, mechanical, environmental and other factors, resulting in insulation aging, leading to cable failure. Therefore, in order to evaluate the cable life, it is necessary to analyze the aging of insulation materials. In this paper, the aging phenomenon and mechanism of cable insulation caused by various factors and its influence on the safe operation of cable are analyzed synthetically in this paper. Then, the aging life model and accelerated aging test principle of cable insulation under the action of electric and thermal single stress are studied. Based on this, the synergistic effect of multi-factor aging is analyzed, and many models describing combined electrothermal aging are compared and studied. And its expression method for electrothermal synergism. Through the statistical analysis of the cable fault reasons, it is found that the cable faults caused by external force failure and improper installation also account for a large proportion in addition to the insulation aging, and make the cable fault before reaching the insulation life. Therefore, in order to correctly evaluate the actual operating life of cables and provide valuable decision information, it is necessary to evaluate the reliability of cables in combination with the insulation life of cables. In this paper, the relationship between insulation life of XLPE cable and various aging stresses, multi-factor aging model, cable fault analysis and cable reliability are studied, and a new method of cable life prediction based on reliability is proposed. The life prediction index system and system model of XLPE cable are presented. According to the probability prediction of failure data and the ageing characteristics of cable, the reliability model of cable based on Weibull distribution is established, and the model parameters are studied. The LS-SVM regression method is used to estimate the parameters, and the results are compared with the usual least square method. Finally, through the life prediction and reliability analysis of 8.7/10KV XLPE cable, the validity of insulation aging life model and reliability model is verified, and some experience is accumulated, which lays a foundation for practical application.
【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM247

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