榆林市比亞迪光伏電站財務(wù)可行性研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-16 04:12
【摘要】：2014年春節(jié)前后,北京、上海、天津、河北、西安等地發(fā)生了大面積長時間的霧霾天氣,環(huán)境污染矛盾突出。因此,改變以前粗放式的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式、加強生態(tài)環(huán)境保護、推動能源生產(chǎn)和消費方式變革已成為關(guān)系人民生活、建設(shè)生態(tài)文明刻不容緩的重要任務(wù)。國務(wù)院總理李克強同志在2014年3月5日十二屆全國人大二次會議上作的《政府工作報告》中,要求推進節(jié)能減排和污染防治,能源消耗強度下降3.7%,非化石能源發(fā)電量比重達到22.3%,鼓勵發(fā)展風能、太陽能發(fā)電。本文通過對榆林市比亞迪300MW光伏電站項目進行可行性分析,為該光伏電站的建設(shè)提供了重要依據(jù),具有重要的理論和工程指導(dǎo)意義。 本文分為七章。第一章是研究概述,闡明了研究光伏發(fā)電行業(yè)的背景,提出了研究榆林市比亞迪光伏電站項目的問題及其意義,構(gòu)建了研究的框架；第二章是投資項目的市場分析,重點分析了中國和榆林地區(qū)電力市場的供給和需求,以及中國光伏電站的發(fā)展歷程和現(xiàn)狀；第三章是太陽能資源分析和發(fā)電量計算；第四章是投資項目的預(yù)算和報表編制,主要從投資總額、融資成本、財務(wù)報表等方而對投資項目做了預(yù)算；第五章是投資項目的效益評價，，主要使用投資利潤率和利稅率、保本點和保利點、投資回收期、凈現(xiàn)值和內(nèi)涵報酬率等財務(wù)指標對投資項目進行效益評價,分析項目可行性；第六章是投資項目的風險評價,通過保本和保利程度、單因素和多因素敏感性分析以及矩陣式風險分析,對投資項目風險進行量化分析；第七章是結(jié)論和建議,提出本文的主要結(jié)論,并從可持續(xù)發(fā)展的角度給出項目建成后的風險控制及持續(xù)經(jīng)營管理建議。 國務(wù)院《能源發(fā)展“十二五”規(guī)劃》要求到2015年,我國非化石能源消費比重提高到11.4%,煤炭消費比重要從2011年的81.56%降低到65%左右,鼓勵建設(shè)大型光伏發(fā)電站。此外,陜西省電力消費量同比增長309.91%,電力消費增長巨大。因此,在國內(nèi)特別是在陜西省發(fā)展光伏發(fā)電行業(yè)有著廣泛的市場發(fā)展前景。本項目總裝機容量為300MW,建成后可實現(xiàn)銷售收入992628.21萬元,利潤總額562759.8萬元,平均每年實現(xiàn)126.87MW容量滿負荷發(fā)電即可盈虧平衡。本項目投資利潤率為8.54%,動態(tài)投資回收期(所得稅后)為9.24年,全部投資財務(wù)凈現(xiàn)值(所得稅后)為221971.75萬元,全部投資內(nèi)涵報酬率(所得稅后)為13.66%,投資效益評價可行。為保證本項目有較好的經(jīng)濟效益,在項目生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營過程中要采取應(yīng)對措施避免投資額、發(fā)電量和上網(wǎng)電價同時減少(下調(diào))的情況出現(xiàn),以提高項目抗風險能力,保證項目可行性。本項目生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營過程中要嚴格控制光伏組件的質(zhì)量和成本,積極開拓國外光伏新興市場,大膽探索光伏互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融產(chǎn)品,為促進比亞迪光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供理論和工程經(jīng)驗。
[Abstract]:Around the Spring Festival of 2014, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hebei, Xi'an and other places have a large area of long time haze weather, environmental pollution contradiction is prominent. Therefore, it is an urgent task to change the previous extensive economic development mode, strengthen the protection of ecological environment, and promote the change of energy production and consumption mode, which has a bearing on people's life and the construction of ecological civilization. In his "Government work report" delivered at the second session of the 12th National people's Congress on March 5, 2014, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council called for the promotion of energy conservation, emission reduction and pollution prevention, and the reduction of energy consumption intensity by 3.7 percent. Non-fossil energy generation has reached 22. 3 percent, encouraging the development of wind and solar power generation. Based on the feasibility analysis of the 300MW photovoltaic power station project in Yulin City, this paper provides an important basis for the construction of the photovoltaic power station and has important theoretical and engineering guiding significance. This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is a summary of the research, which clarifies the background of the research on photovoltaic power generation industry, puts forward the research of Yulin city BYD photovoltaic power plant project and its significance, and constructs the framework of the research; The second chapter is the market analysis of investment projects, focusing on the analysis of the supply and demand of the electricity market in China and Yulin region, as well as the development process and current situation of photovoltaic power plants in China, the third chapter is the analysis of solar energy resources and the calculation of power generation. The fourth chapter is the investment project budget and statement preparation, mainly from the total amount of investment, financing costs, financial statements and other aspects of the investment project budget; The fifth chapter is the benefit evaluation of the investment project, mainly using the investment profit rate and the interest tax rate, the capital preservation point and the interest preservation point, the investment recovery period, the net present value and the connotation return rate to carry on the benefit appraisal to the investment project, analyzes the project feasibility; The sixth chapter is the risk evaluation of investment projects, through the degree of capital preservation and interest preservation, single-factor and multi-factor sensitivity analysis and matrix risk analysis, quantitative analysis of investment project risk; The seventh chapter is the conclusion and suggestion, and puts forward the main conclusion of this paper, and from the angle of sustainable development, gives the risk control and the continuing management suggestion after the project is completed. The State Council's 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development requires that by 2015, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in China will increase to 11.4 percent, and the coal consumption ratio will be reduced from 81.56 percent in 2011 to about 65 percent, encouraging the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power stations. In addition, electricity consumption in Shaanxi Province increased by 309.91% from the same period last year. Therefore, the development of photovoltaic power generation industry in China, especially in Shaanxi Province, has a broad market prospects. The total installed capacity of the project is 300MW. After the completion of the project, the sales income can be 9.9262821 billion yuan, the total profit is 5.627598 billion yuan, and the average 126.87MW capacity of full load power generation can break even every year. The investment profit rate of the project is 8.54, the dynamic investment recovery period (after income tax) is 9.24 years, the net present value of all investments (after income tax) is 2.2197175 billion yuan, and the return rate of all investment intension (after income tax) is 13.66. Investment benefit evaluation is feasible. In order to ensure the better economic benefit of the project, the countermeasures should be taken to avoid the investment, the power generation and the electricity price on the net should be reduced (lowered) at the same time, so as to improve the project's ability to resist risks. Ensure project feasibility. In the course of production and operation of this project, we should strictly control the quality and cost of photovoltaic modules, actively open up foreign photovoltaic emerging markets, and boldly explore photovoltaic Internet financial products. To promote the sustainable development of BYD photovoltaic industry to provide theory and engineering experience.
【學位授予單位】：廈門大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.61;F275
本文編號：2381800
[Abstract]:Around the Spring Festival of 2014, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hebei, Xi'an and other places have a large area of long time haze weather, environmental pollution contradiction is prominent. Therefore, it is an urgent task to change the previous extensive economic development mode, strengthen the protection of ecological environment, and promote the change of energy production and consumption mode, which has a bearing on people's life and the construction of ecological civilization. In his "Government work report" delivered at the second session of the 12th National people's Congress on March 5, 2014, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council called for the promotion of energy conservation, emission reduction and pollution prevention, and the reduction of energy consumption intensity by 3.7 percent. Non-fossil energy generation has reached 22. 3 percent, encouraging the development of wind and solar power generation. Based on the feasibility analysis of the 300MW photovoltaic power station project in Yulin City, this paper provides an important basis for the construction of the photovoltaic power station and has important theoretical and engineering guiding significance. This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is a summary of the research, which clarifies the background of the research on photovoltaic power generation industry, puts forward the research of Yulin city BYD photovoltaic power plant project and its significance, and constructs the framework of the research; The second chapter is the market analysis of investment projects, focusing on the analysis of the supply and demand of the electricity market in China and Yulin region, as well as the development process and current situation of photovoltaic power plants in China, the third chapter is the analysis of solar energy resources and the calculation of power generation. The fourth chapter is the investment project budget and statement preparation, mainly from the total amount of investment, financing costs, financial statements and other aspects of the investment project budget; The fifth chapter is the benefit evaluation of the investment project, mainly using the investment profit rate and the interest tax rate, the capital preservation point and the interest preservation point, the investment recovery period, the net present value and the connotation return rate to carry on the benefit appraisal to the investment project, analyzes the project feasibility; The sixth chapter is the risk evaluation of investment projects, through the degree of capital preservation and interest preservation, single-factor and multi-factor sensitivity analysis and matrix risk analysis, quantitative analysis of investment project risk; The seventh chapter is the conclusion and suggestion, and puts forward the main conclusion of this paper, and from the angle of sustainable development, gives the risk control and the continuing management suggestion after the project is completed. The State Council's 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development requires that by 2015, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in China will increase to 11.4 percent, and the coal consumption ratio will be reduced from 81.56 percent in 2011 to about 65 percent, encouraging the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power stations. In addition, electricity consumption in Shaanxi Province increased by 309.91% from the same period last year. Therefore, the development of photovoltaic power generation industry in China, especially in Shaanxi Province, has a broad market prospects. The total installed capacity of the project is 300MW. After the completion of the project, the sales income can be 9.9262821 billion yuan, the total profit is 5.627598 billion yuan, and the average 126.87MW capacity of full load power generation can break even every year. The investment profit rate of the project is 8.54, the dynamic investment recovery period (after income tax) is 9.24 years, the net present value of all investments (after income tax) is 2.2197175 billion yuan, and the return rate of all investment intension (after income tax) is 13.66. Investment benefit evaluation is feasible. In order to ensure the better economic benefit of the project, the countermeasures should be taken to avoid the investment, the power generation and the electricity price on the net should be reduced (lowered) at the same time, so as to improve the project's ability to resist risks. Ensure project feasibility. In the course of production and operation of this project, we should strictly control the quality and cost of photovoltaic modules, actively open up foreign photovoltaic emerging markets, and boldly explore photovoltaic Internet financial products. To promote the sustainable development of BYD photovoltaic industry to provide theory and engineering experience.
【學位授予單位】：廈門大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.61;F275
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條
1 閻海燕;徐波;徐逸飛;;我國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展問題探討——兼論太陽能電池組件價格變動及其影響[J];價格理論與實踐;2010年07期
本文編號：2381800
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