基于《條例》的福建電網(wǎng)潛在事故和風(fēng)險評估研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-15 19:01
【摘要】：《電力安全事故應(yīng)急處置和調(diào)查處理條例》(題目和以下簡稱《條例》)的頒布對電力企業(yè)進(jìn)一步保障電網(wǎng)安全穩(wěn)定運行和可靠供電、有效規(guī)避電力事故提出了更高要求。十二五至十三五期間,福建電網(wǎng)正進(jìn)入大跨越發(fā)展階段,電網(wǎng)運行情況更加復(fù)雜,給福建電網(wǎng)安全穩(wěn)定運行帶來了更大挑戰(zhàn)。因此掌握電網(wǎng)的安全水平,采取相應(yīng)控制防御措施,對發(fā)展中的福建電網(wǎng)具有重大意義。相比于傳統(tǒng)的安全評估方法,風(fēng)險評估能夠把事故發(fā)生概率和后果結(jié)合起來,一方面可以反映事故概率；另一方面可以引入電氣、經(jīng)濟和社會指標(biāo)來衡量事故后果。因此開發(fā)基于《條例》事故等級的福建電網(wǎng)運行風(fēng)險評估系統(tǒng)第一期工程。該系統(tǒng)對福建電網(wǎng)進(jìn)行基于風(fēng)險理論的靜態(tài)安全評估；并引入《條例》事故等級作為事故后果評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)之一,根據(jù)損失負(fù)荷比例對事故進(jìn)行評級,把事故概率和等級結(jié)合起來,從管理角度反映電網(wǎng)發(fā)生故障的可能性和后果,為高層決策提供技術(shù)支撐。目前福建電網(wǎng)220kV以上輸電線路N-1故障不會引起《條例》所提事故,多重故障成為福建電網(wǎng)風(fēng)險評估中需要考慮的主要問題。隨著系統(tǒng)的增大,多重故障的組合數(shù)呈指數(shù)增長,即所謂“維數(shù)災(zāi)”問題。但是電力系統(tǒng)中只有少部分多重故障會破壞系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定運行。因此研究一種方法,有效地過濾不需關(guān)注的故障,生成一個適合計算的預(yù)想故障集,是福建電網(wǎng)風(fēng)險評估迫切需要解決的問題。依托于該項目,本論文研究會引起其它線路過載的N-2故障集的生成方法。為敘述方便,本文把該故障集稱為嚴(yán)重故障集。本文提出以下兩種生成嚴(yán)重故障集的方法：通過潮流轉(zhuǎn)移的快速估算來預(yù)測故障是否會引起線路過載進(jìn)而進(jìn)行故障集篩選；或者用潮流預(yù)測結(jié)合影響域概念,排除影響域沒有交集的多重故障。方法一：較之于耗時較長的完全交流潮流計算,潮流轉(zhuǎn)移預(yù)測是判斷預(yù)想故障后線路是否過載的一種快速、有效的方法。經(jīng)過對各種常見潮流轉(zhuǎn)移預(yù)測方法比較,選擇支路開斷分布因子作為潮流轉(zhuǎn)移預(yù)測和嚴(yán)重故障集篩選工具。將其用于潮流轉(zhuǎn)移估算、過載支路篩選和嚴(yán)重故障集生成都取得了良好效果。方法二：通過理論推導(dǎo),得出影響域沒有交集的兩條線路組合故障時可以用單重故障線性疊加近似的結(jié)論。這樣大大縮小了需要詳細(xì)計算的N-2故障范圍。結(jié)合支路開斷分布因子,發(fā)揮其估算轉(zhuǎn)移潮流的速度優(yōu)勢,可以快速過濾不需關(guān)注的N-2故障,生成嚴(yán)重故障集。
[Abstract]:The promulgation of the regulations on Emergency handling and investigation and handling of Electric Power Safety Accidents (title and hereinafter referred to as "regulations") puts forward higher requirements for electric power enterprises to further ensure the safe and stable operation and reliable power supply of power networks and to effectively avoid power accidents. From the 12th Five-Year Plan to the 13th Five-Year Plan, Fujian Power Grid is entering the stage of great leapfrogging development, and the operation of the power grid is more complicated, which brings greater challenges to the safe and stable operation of Fujian Power Grid. Therefore, it is of great significance for the developing Fujian power grid to grasp the safety level of the power grid and take corresponding control and defense measures. Compared with the traditional safety assessment method, the risk assessment can combine the probability and consequence of the accident, on the one hand, it can reflect the probability of the accident; on the other hand, it can introduce electrical, economic and social indicators to measure the consequences of the accident. Therefore, the first phase of Fujian power grid operation risk assessment system based on the accident grade is developed. This system carries on the static security evaluation based on the risk theory to Fujian power grid; The accident grade is introduced as one of the criteria for evaluating the consequence of the accident. According to the loss load ratio, the accident probability and grade are combined to reflect the possibility and consequence of power network failure from the management point of view. Provide technical support for high-level decision-making. At present, the fault of transmission line N-1 above 220kV in Fujian power grid will not cause the accident mentioned in regulations, and multiple faults have become the main problems to be considered in the risk assessment of Fujian power network. With the increase of the system, the combination number of multiple faults increases exponentially, that is, the so-called "dimension disaster" problem. However, only a small number of multiple faults in the power system will destroy the stable operation of the system. Therefore, it is an urgent problem for Fujian power network risk assessment to study a method to effectively filter the unconcerned faults and generate a set of preconceived faults that are suitable for calculation. Based on this project, this paper studies the generation method of N-2 fault set which will cause overload of other lines. For convenience of description, the fault set is called serious fault set in this paper. In this paper, two methods for generating serious fault sets are put forward: the fast estimation of power flow transition is used to predict whether the fault will cause the line overload and then the fault set selection is carried out; Power flow prediction combined with the concept of influence domain is used to eliminate multiple faults where the influence domain is not intersected. Method one: compared with the time-consuming complete AC power flow calculation, power flow transfer prediction is a fast and effective method to judge whether the line is overloaded or not after the expected fault. Based on the comparison of common forecasting methods of power flow transfer, the branch break distribution factor is selected as a tool for power flow transfer prediction and serious fault set screening. It has been applied to power flow transfer estimation, overload branch selection and serious fault set generation. Method two: by theoretical derivation, it is concluded that the linear superposition of single fault can be used to approximate the combination fault of two lines with no intersection in the influence domain. This greatly reduces the range of N-2 failures that need to be calculated in detail. Combining with branch breaking distribution factor and exerting its advantage of estimating the speed of power flow, N-2 faults can be filtered quickly and serious fault sets can be generated.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM73
本文編號：2381137
[Abstract]:The promulgation of the regulations on Emergency handling and investigation and handling of Electric Power Safety Accidents (title and hereinafter referred to as "regulations") puts forward higher requirements for electric power enterprises to further ensure the safe and stable operation and reliable power supply of power networks and to effectively avoid power accidents. From the 12th Five-Year Plan to the 13th Five-Year Plan, Fujian Power Grid is entering the stage of great leapfrogging development, and the operation of the power grid is more complicated, which brings greater challenges to the safe and stable operation of Fujian Power Grid. Therefore, it is of great significance for the developing Fujian power grid to grasp the safety level of the power grid and take corresponding control and defense measures. Compared with the traditional safety assessment method, the risk assessment can combine the probability and consequence of the accident, on the one hand, it can reflect the probability of the accident; on the other hand, it can introduce electrical, economic and social indicators to measure the consequences of the accident. Therefore, the first phase of Fujian power grid operation risk assessment system based on the accident grade is developed. This system carries on the static security evaluation based on the risk theory to Fujian power grid; The accident grade is introduced as one of the criteria for evaluating the consequence of the accident. According to the loss load ratio, the accident probability and grade are combined to reflect the possibility and consequence of power network failure from the management point of view. Provide technical support for high-level decision-making. At present, the fault of transmission line N-1 above 220kV in Fujian power grid will not cause the accident mentioned in regulations, and multiple faults have become the main problems to be considered in the risk assessment of Fujian power network. With the increase of the system, the combination number of multiple faults increases exponentially, that is, the so-called "dimension disaster" problem. However, only a small number of multiple faults in the power system will destroy the stable operation of the system. Therefore, it is an urgent problem for Fujian power network risk assessment to study a method to effectively filter the unconcerned faults and generate a set of preconceived faults that are suitable for calculation. Based on this project, this paper studies the generation method of N-2 fault set which will cause overload of other lines. For convenience of description, the fault set is called serious fault set in this paper. In this paper, two methods for generating serious fault sets are put forward: the fast estimation of power flow transition is used to predict whether the fault will cause the line overload and then the fault set selection is carried out; Power flow prediction combined with the concept of influence domain is used to eliminate multiple faults where the influence domain is not intersected. Method one: compared with the time-consuming complete AC power flow calculation, power flow transfer prediction is a fast and effective method to judge whether the line is overloaded or not after the expected fault. Based on the comparison of common forecasting methods of power flow transfer, the branch break distribution factor is selected as a tool for power flow transfer prediction and serious fault set screening. It has been applied to power flow transfer estimation, overload branch selection and serious fault set generation. Method two: by theoretical derivation, it is concluded that the linear superposition of single fault can be used to approximate the combination fault of two lines with no intersection in the influence domain. This greatly reduces the range of N-2 failures that need to be calculated in detail. Combining with branch breaking distribution factor and exerting its advantage of estimating the speed of power flow, N-2 faults can be filtered quickly and serious fault sets can be generated.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM73
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，本文編號：2381137
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