【摘要】：針對電力系統(tǒng)中長期負荷預測會受到很多不定因素的影響,通過采用組合預測等維新息熵值法對中長期電力負荷進行建模,建立了基于等維新息熵值法組合預測數(shù)學模型。先是用最優(yōu)加權幾何平均法和灰色關聯(lián)分析法算出單一預測模型的權重,接著由熵值法確定模型評價指標的相對權重,最終獲得組合權重因子。在組合預測模型中引入了等維新息數(shù)據處理的思想,實現(xiàn)了變權重,使預測結果能夠更加合理地反映負荷發(fā)展趨勢;并通過尋找等維新息的最佳維數(shù)區(qū),優(yōu)化了等維新息熵值法組合預測模型,得到更高的預測精度。計算結果顯示了采用等維新息熵值法對中長期電力負荷進行預測的有效性。
[Abstract]:In view of the influence of many uncertain factors on the power system medium- and long-term load forecasting, the combined forecasting mathematical model based on the equal-dimensional innovation entropy method is established by using the combined forecasting equal-dimensional innovation entropy method to model the medium and long term power load. First, the weight of a single prediction model is calculated by using the optimal weighted geometric average method and the grey relational analysis method, and then the relative weight of the evaluation index of the model is determined by the entropy method, and the combined weight factor is finally obtained. The idea of equal dimension innovation data processing is introduced into the combined forecasting model, and the variable weight is realized, so that the forecast results can reflect the trend of load development more reasonably. By searching for the best dimensional region of the equal-dimensional innovation, the combined prediction model of the equal-dimensional innovation entropy method is optimized, and the higher prediction accuracy is obtained. The calculation results show the effectiveness of using the equal-dimensional innovation entropy method to forecast the power load in the medium and long term.
【作者單位】： 四川大學電氣信息學院;四川電力職業(yè)技術學院;南充市供電公司;
【分類號】：TM715

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前7條

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本文編號：2342717