【摘要】：隨著全球能源危機(jī)的進(jìn)一步加深,新能源領(lǐng)域研究的重要性愈加凸顯。將可再生能源作為發(fā)電源的微電網(wǎng)作為傳統(tǒng)集中式大電網(wǎng)替代型技術(shù)研究發(fā)展?jié)摿薮�。微電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)規(guī)模小,電網(wǎng)容量有限,而負(fù)荷序列明顯波動(dòng),具有高度的非平滑特性和非線性特性。同時(shí)風(fēng)力、光伏發(fā)電受自然界客觀條件制約,其發(fā)電功率及供電質(zhì)量也受用戶負(fù)荷影響。因此如何提高微電網(wǎng)短時(shí)負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)精確度、提高供電質(zhì)量已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)前研究熱點(diǎn)。本文基于風(fēng)力發(fā)電、光伏發(fā)電及微電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)做了深入研究,得出一些有意義的結(jié)論,這些研究成果為微電網(wǎng)技術(shù)研究提供了新思維和新路徑。 論文綜述微電網(wǎng)短時(shí)負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)的背景、意義和國(guó)內(nèi)外研究發(fā)展歷程。設(shè)計(jì)太陽(yáng)能,風(fēng)能互補(bǔ)的微電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)。首先介紹了太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)能電源的基本工作原理；而后依據(jù)其明顯的互補(bǔ)優(yōu)勢(shì)設(shè)計(jì)了太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)能和儲(chǔ)能一體的微電網(wǎng)的主接線結(jié)構(gòu)圖；剖析了主要環(huán)節(jié)的工作原理,給出了有特色的最大效率轉(zhuǎn)換太陽(yáng)能裝置。其次,介紹了微電網(wǎng)電源數(shù)學(xué)模型,主要有光伏電池輸出特性和并網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)信號(hào)模型,蓄電池充放電模型,風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)模型。然后研究復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的多模型切換預(yù)測(cè)控制在線性時(shí)變和非線性時(shí)變下的系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)和切換控制策略。再次,本文提出了一種用量子粒子群(QPSO)優(yōu)化自適應(yīng)神經(jīng)模糊推理系統(tǒng)(ANFIS)的預(yù)測(cè)算法,通過(guò)歸一化預(yù)處理負(fù)荷值的預(yù)測(cè)模型。在理論分析論證的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)仿真,并結(jié)合某海島上的微電網(wǎng)實(shí)際負(fù)荷數(shù)據(jù)做模擬仿真論證,結(jié)果證明該方法的有效,為提高微電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的供電品質(zhì)及減低運(yùn)行成本提供了新思路。最后,探討了微電網(wǎng)電能質(zhì)量問(wèn)題的影響因素,從中選擇組合型無(wú)功補(bǔ)償裝置,建立分布式電源接入配電網(wǎng)后的無(wú)功優(yōu)化模型,提出了一種改進(jìn)量子粒子群算法來(lái)進(jìn)行無(wú)功優(yōu)化。最后進(jìn)行仿真驗(yàn)證了該模型和算法的有效性,說(shuō)明接入分布式能源后,通過(guò)合理的無(wú)功優(yōu)化能夠降低網(wǎng)損,提高電能質(zhì)量。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the global energy crisis, the importance of new energy research is becoming more and more prominent. There is great potential for the research and development of microgrid with renewable energy as power source as the substitute technology of traditional centralized power grid. The microgrid system is small in scale and limited in capacity, but the load sequence fluctuates obviously, and it has a high degree of nonsmooth and nonlinear characteristics. At the same time, wind and photovoltaic power generation is restricted by the objective conditions of nature, and its power generation and power supply quality are also affected by user load. Therefore, how to improve the accuracy of short-time load forecasting and improve the quality of power supply has become a hot topic. In this paper, based on wind power generation, photovoltaic generation and microgrid system structure design, some meaningful conclusions are drawn. These research results provide a new thinking and new path for the research of microgrid technology. This paper summarizes the background, significance and development of short-time load forecasting for micro-grid. The design of solar and wind energy complementary micro-grid system structure. Firstly, the basic working principle of solar and wind power supply is introduced, and then, according to its obvious complementary advantages, the main wiring structure of micro-grid with solar, wind and energy storage is designed. The working principle of the main link is analyzed, and the characteristic maximum efficiency conversion solar energy device is given. Secondly, the mathematical model of microgrid power supply is introduced, including photovoltaic cell output characteristics and grid-connected system signal model, battery charge and discharge model, wind turbine model. Then, the system structure and switching control strategy of multi-model switching predictive control for complex systems under linear and nonlinear time-varying conditions are studied. Thirdly, a prediction algorithm based on quantum particle swarm optimization (QPSO) for adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is proposed. On the basis of theoretical analysis and demonstration, the simulation results show that the method is effective by simulation and combining with the actual load data of microgrid on a certain island. It provides a new way to improve the power supply quality and reduce the operation cost of microgrid system. Finally, the influence factors of power quality in microgrid are discussed, and the combined reactive power compensation device is selected to establish the reactive power optimization model after the distributed generation is connected to the distribution network. An improved Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO) algorithm is proposed for reactive power optimization. Finally, the validity of the model and the algorithm is verified by simulation, which shows that the network loss can be reduced and the power quality can be improved by rational reactive power optimization after access to distributed energy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TM61

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