【摘要】：隨著電網(wǎng)互聯(lián)規(guī)模的增大和復(fù)雜性的提高,電力系統(tǒng)的安全運(yùn)行問題日益突出,國內(nèi)外頻繁發(fā)生的大停電事故不但造成了巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,而且嚴(yán)重影響社會(huì)穩(wěn)定,進(jìn)而引起了各國電力學(xué)者對(duì)電網(wǎng)安全可靠運(yùn)行的廣泛關(guān)注。隨著我國電力需求的快速增長,以及西電東送、全國聯(lián)網(wǎng)戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施,中國電網(wǎng)將成為世界上規(guī)模最大、最復(fù)雜的電網(wǎng)之一,提高電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行可靠性、保證電網(wǎng)安全已成為電力系統(tǒng)面臨的迫切性問題。因此對(duì)電網(wǎng)進(jìn)行全面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估及安全預(yù)警具有十分重要的意義。鑒于此,本文對(duì)含風(fēng)電場(chǎng)并網(wǎng)的電力系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估及安全預(yù)警等問題開展一系列研究,主要工作歸納如下： 研究了電力系統(tǒng)安全評(píng)估方法發(fā)展的三個(gè)階段,分析了幾種電力系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估方法的特點(diǎn),確定了本文采用的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法為蒙特卡洛法；研究了效用函數(shù)理論,通過計(jì)及負(fù)荷的重要程度與電壓等級(jí)等因素,改進(jìn)了故障后果嚴(yán)重度模型,使模型更加符合電力系統(tǒng)實(shí)際情況；改進(jìn)了海南電網(wǎng)的現(xiàn)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估量化方法,消除了遮蔽現(xiàn)象；提出了基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的安全預(yù)警分級(jí)算法,因電力系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估受故障概率和故障后果嚴(yán)重度的影響,研究了基于模糊C均值聚類方法的故障概率分級(jí)算法,提出了基于模糊推理原則的故障后果嚴(yán)重度分級(jí)算法,通過模糊運(yùn)算確定了安全預(yù)警等級(jí)；建立了基于時(shí)間序列-狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移法的風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)模型和考慮尾流效應(yīng)的風(fēng)電機(jī)組出力模型及停運(yùn)模型。 運(yùn)用MATLAB軟件編制的算法程序,結(jié)合IEEE-RTS79測(cè)試系統(tǒng)對(duì)風(fēng)電場(chǎng)不同接入形式下以及用相同容量的風(fēng)電場(chǎng)替代常規(guī)發(fā)電機(jī)組后的系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了仿真計(jì)算分析,驗(yàn)證了本文所提方法的有效性。仿真結(jié)果表明：風(fēng)電的直接接入會(huì)導(dǎo)致系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)及預(yù)警等級(jí)的提高,元件故障率對(duì)系統(tǒng)預(yù)警分級(jí)的影響較小,系統(tǒng)安全水平隨負(fù)荷水平提高而降低。
[Abstract]:With the increase of interconnection scale and complexity of power network, the safe operation of power system is becoming more and more serious. Frequent power outages at home and abroad not only cause huge economic losses, but also seriously affect social stability. Therefore, electric power scholars all over the world pay more attention to the safe and reliable operation of power grid. With the rapid growth of power demand in China, the transmission of electricity from the west to the east, and the implementation of the national networking strategy, China's power grid will become one of the largest and most complex power grids in the world, improving the reliability of the power grid operation. To ensure the security of power system has become an urgent problem in power system. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out comprehensive risk assessment and security early warning for power grid. In view of this, this paper carries out a series of research on power system risk assessment and safety early warning with wind farm connected to the grid. The main work is summarized as follows: the three stages of the development of power system security assessment method are studied. This paper analyzes the characteristics of several power system reliability assessment methods and determines that the risk assessment method used in this paper is Monte Carlo method. The utility function theory is studied. The model of fault consequence severity is improved by taking into account the important degree of load and voltage grade, which makes the model more suitable for the actual situation of power system. The existing quantitative risk assessment method of Hainan Power Grid is improved, and the sheltering phenomenon is eliminated. A security early warning classification algorithm based on risk assessment is proposed. Because the power system risk assessment is affected by fault probability and fault consequence severity, a fault probability classification algorithm based on fuzzy C-means clustering method is studied. A fault consequence severity classification algorithm based on fuzzy reasoning principle is proposed, and the security early warning level is determined by fuzzy operation. The wind speed prediction model based on time series-state transfer method and wind turbine output model and outage model considering wake effect are established. By using the algorithm program compiled by MATLAB software and the IEEE-RTS79 test system, the system risk of replacing conventional generator sets with wind farms with the same capacity and different forms of access is simulated and analyzed. The validity of the proposed method is verified. The simulation results show that the direct access of wind power will lead to the increase of system risk index and warning level, the failure rate of components will have little effect on the early warning classification of the system, and the system safety level will decrease with the increase of load level.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM732

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本文編號(hào)：2298198