生物質(zhì)發(fā)電燃料供給行為及模式研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-23 12:48
【摘要】：近年來,生物質(zhì)能作為一種清潔能源逐步受到重視,生物質(zhì)能的應(yīng)用技術(shù)得到迅猛的發(fā)展。生物質(zhì)發(fā)電是生物質(zhì)能高效利用的主要方式之一。伴隨著我國一系列相關(guān)政策與產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃的提出,盡管生物質(zhì)發(fā)電行業(yè)進入了一個快速發(fā)展期,但由于缺乏充足的燃料,許多生物質(zhì)發(fā)電企業(yè)處于虧損狀態(tài)。因此,從農(nóng)戶供給意愿和行為對影響生物質(zhì)燃料供給的因素進行分析,并對燃料供給模式進行研究對生物質(zhì)發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展有重要意義。農(nóng)戶對農(nóng)業(yè)秸稈供應(yīng)的意愿和行為是影響秸稈收集利用的關(guān)鍵。本文利用因子分析法識別影響農(nóng)戶意愿和行為的主要因素,繼而用logistic模型分別探討這些因素對意愿和行為的影響。研究結(jié)果表明,年齡、文化程度、農(nóng)戶對秸稈的利用和認知、他人是否利用秸稈、村委會是否號召等都對農(nóng)戶供給意愿影響顯著,而對農(nóng)戶行為產(chǎn)生實質(zhì)性影響的因素僅有農(nóng)戶對秸稈的利用和認知、他人是否利用秸稈、村委會是否號召、農(nóng)戶的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營特征。農(nóng)戶供給意愿到行為的轉(zhuǎn)換存在一定障礙。為提高農(nóng)戶秸稈供應(yīng)意愿和行為,本文提出有限理性模式,探討了該模式對農(nóng)戶意愿的影響機制。并在完全理性和有限理性兩種假設(shè)下考慮農(nóng)戶和相關(guān)組織行為,構(gòu)建基于經(jīng)濟利益最大化和效用最大化兩種完全信息動態(tài)博弈模型,分析生物質(zhì)燃料供應(yīng)模式。兩模型的納什均衡均表明,農(nóng)戶生物質(zhì)燃料供給量、組織提供給農(nóng)戶的價格同上網(wǎng)電價呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,同燃料的運輸、存儲及預(yù)處理成本呈負相關(guān)關(guān)系。另外,在有限理性模式下,效用函數(shù)系數(shù)對生物質(zhì)燃料供給量租基金組織給農(nóng)戶的經(jīng)濟利益有一定影響。對兩模式進行比較發(fā)現(xiàn),有限理性模式下,農(nóng)戶的生物質(zhì)燃料供給量和收益均高于完全理性模式。因此基于有限理性的基金組織的供應(yīng)模式更有利于生物質(zhì)燃料的高效供應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, biomass energy as a kind of clean energy has been paid more and more attention, and the application technology of biomass energy has been developed rapidly. Biomass power generation is one of the main ways to utilize biomass energy efficiently. With a series of related policies and industrial development plans put forward in China, although biomass power generation industry has entered a rapid development period, but due to the lack of sufficient fuel, many biomass power generation enterprises are in a state of loss. Therefore, it is of great significance for the development of biomass power generation industry to analyze the factors that affect the biomass fuel supply from the farmers' willingness and behavior, and to study the fuel supply mode. The willingness and behavior of farmers to supply agricultural straw is the key to affect the collection and utilization of straw. This paper uses factor analysis method to identify the main factors that affect farmers' will and behavior, and then uses logistic model to explore the influence of these factors on the will and behavior of farmers. The results show that age, education level, farmers' use and cognition of straw, whether others use straw, village committee call or not all have significant effects on farmers' willingness to supply. However, the factors that have substantial influence on the behavior of farmers are the utilization and cognition of straw, the use of straw by others, the call of village committee, and the characteristics of farmers' production and management. There are some obstacles to the conversion of farmers' supply intention to behavior. In order to improve the willingness and behavior of farmers' straw supply, this paper puts forward a limited rational model and discusses the influence mechanism of this model on farmers' willingness. Under the assumption of complete rationality and limited rationality, the dynamic game models based on economic benefit maximization and utility maximization are constructed to analyze the biomass fuel supply mode. The Nash equilibrium of the two models showed that there was a positive correlation between the supply of biomass fuel and the price provided by the organization to the farmer and the price of electricity on the Internet, but a negative correlation was found between the supply of biomass fuel and the cost of transportation, storage and pretreatment of the fuel. In addition, under the limited rationality model, the utility function coefficient has a certain influence on the economic benefits of the biomass fuel supply rental fund to farmers. By comparing the two models, it is found that the biomass fuel supply and income of farmers are higher than that of the complete rational model under the limited rationality model. Therefore, the IMF supply mode based on limited rationality is more favorable to the efficient supply of biomass fuel.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TM619
[Abstract]:In recent years, biomass energy as a kind of clean energy has been paid more and more attention, and the application technology of biomass energy has been developed rapidly. Biomass power generation is one of the main ways to utilize biomass energy efficiently. With a series of related policies and industrial development plans put forward in China, although biomass power generation industry has entered a rapid development period, but due to the lack of sufficient fuel, many biomass power generation enterprises are in a state of loss. Therefore, it is of great significance for the development of biomass power generation industry to analyze the factors that affect the biomass fuel supply from the farmers' willingness and behavior, and to study the fuel supply mode. The willingness and behavior of farmers to supply agricultural straw is the key to affect the collection and utilization of straw. This paper uses factor analysis method to identify the main factors that affect farmers' will and behavior, and then uses logistic model to explore the influence of these factors on the will and behavior of farmers. The results show that age, education level, farmers' use and cognition of straw, whether others use straw, village committee call or not all have significant effects on farmers' willingness to supply. However, the factors that have substantial influence on the behavior of farmers are the utilization and cognition of straw, the use of straw by others, the call of village committee, and the characteristics of farmers' production and management. There are some obstacles to the conversion of farmers' supply intention to behavior. In order to improve the willingness and behavior of farmers' straw supply, this paper puts forward a limited rational model and discusses the influence mechanism of this model on farmers' willingness. Under the assumption of complete rationality and limited rationality, the dynamic game models based on economic benefit maximization and utility maximization are constructed to analyze the biomass fuel supply mode. The Nash equilibrium of the two models showed that there was a positive correlation between the supply of biomass fuel and the price provided by the organization to the farmer and the price of electricity on the Internet, but a negative correlation was found between the supply of biomass fuel and the cost of transportation, storage and pretreatment of the fuel. In addition, under the limited rationality model, the utility function coefficient has a certain influence on the economic benefits of the biomass fuel supply rental fund to farmers. By comparing the two models, it is found that the biomass fuel supply and income of farmers are higher than that of the complete rational model under the limited rationality model. Therefore, the IMF supply mode based on limited rationality is more favorable to the efficient supply of biomass fuel.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TM619
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前5條
1 邢愛華;劉罡;王W，
本文編號：2289291
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