【摘要】：隨著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,科學(xué)技術(shù)的進(jìn)步,人們對(duì)電力的需求大幅度上升。為了滿(mǎn)足受端用戶(hù)的電力需求,必須要加強(qiáng)電網(wǎng)的建設(shè)。在電網(wǎng)建設(shè)之前,需要對(duì)電網(wǎng)建設(shè)提出一些規(guī)劃方案,一個(gè)合理的規(guī)劃方案能促進(jìn)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,提高人們的生活水平,同時(shí)也能為電網(wǎng)企業(yè)帶來(lái)巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。因此如何對(duì)電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃方案進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)顯得十分重要。層次分析法是運(yùn)用最為廣泛、最為成熟的一種綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法。它將復(fù)雜的決策問(wèn)題分解成有序的梯階層次結(jié)構(gòu),在每一層中,決策者通過(guò)兩兩比較的方式判斷各元素之間的相對(duì)重要性,運(yùn)用標(biāo)度系統(tǒng),將定性判斷量化,構(gòu)造判斷矩陣,再采用一定的數(shù)學(xué)方法求取各元素權(quán)重。最后,采用加權(quán)求和的方法,在梯階層次結(jié)構(gòu)內(nèi)進(jìn)行融合,得到規(guī)劃方案對(duì)于總目標(biāo)的相對(duì)重要程度,并根據(jù)相對(duì)重要程度的大小對(duì)規(guī)劃方案進(jìn)行排序、擇優(yōu)。但應(yīng)用層次分析法求取指標(biāo)權(quán)重時(shí),難免具有較強(qiáng)的主觀性;對(duì)規(guī)劃進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)時(shí),評(píng)價(jià)手段較為單一。本文針對(duì)配電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃綜合評(píng)價(jià)的特點(diǎn)對(duì)應(yīng)用層次分析法開(kāi)展評(píng)價(jià)工作中存在的不足及其改進(jìn)展開(kāi)研究。傳統(tǒng)的層次分析法指標(biāo)權(quán)重的求取體現(xiàn)了決策者對(duì)指標(biāo)的重視程度,但并沒(méi)有反映指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)特點(diǎn)。本文引入變權(quán)理論,對(duì)指標(biāo)權(quán)重進(jìn)行修正。鑒于傳統(tǒng)變權(quán)計(jì)算方法具有狀態(tài)變權(quán)向量選取困難,可操作性不強(qiáng)這一特點(diǎn),本文提出了一種基于形狀相似性的變權(quán)計(jì)算方法。所提出的計(jì)算方法避免了狀態(tài)變權(quán)向量的選擇,通過(guò)設(shè)置參考序列,達(dá)到調(diào)節(jié)權(quán)重的目的。通過(guò)算例分析,論證了本文所提出方法的合理性。傳統(tǒng)的層次分析法在對(duì)規(guī)劃方案進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)時(shí),運(yùn)用規(guī)劃方案對(duì)于總目標(biāo)的相對(duì)重要程度對(duì)規(guī)劃方案進(jìn)行排序。而相對(duì)重要程度只是度量各方案之間優(yōu)劣的一種手段,它并不能全面的,多角度的對(duì)規(guī)劃方案進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。本文提出了一種考慮均衡性的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法。通過(guò)引入逼近理想解法和鄧氏關(guān)聯(lián)度相結(jié)合,構(gòu)造新的相對(duì)關(guān)聯(lián)度的方法,對(duì)規(guī)劃方案與理想方案之間的接近程度進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。同時(shí)引入斜率關(guān)聯(lián)度,提出了利用斜率關(guān)聯(lián)度對(duì)規(guī)劃方案中各指標(biāo)水平的均衡性進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)的思路。最后,將相對(duì)關(guān)聯(lián)度和斜率關(guān)聯(lián)度相融合,構(gòu)造綜合關(guān)聯(lián)度。通過(guò)綜合關(guān)聯(lián)度數(shù)值的大小對(duì)規(guī)劃方案進(jìn)行排序,擇優(yōu)。相比于傳統(tǒng)的層次分析法而言,本文所提出的綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法能更加全面的,多角度的對(duì)規(guī)劃方案進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。通過(guò)算例分析,論證了本文所提出的綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法可操作性強(qiáng),計(jì)算結(jié)果科學(xué)合理。
[Abstract]:With the development of the national economy and the progress of science and technology, the demand for electric power has increased greatly. In order to meet the electricity demand of the end-users, it is necessary to strengthen the power grid construction. Before the construction of power grid, it is necessary to put forward some planning plans for power grid construction. A reasonable plan can promote the development of national economy, improve people's living standard, and bring huge economic benefits to power grid enterprises at the same time. Therefore, it is very important to evaluate the power network planning scheme. Analytic hierarchy process is the most widely used, the most mature comprehensive evaluation method. In each layer, the decision makers judge the relative importance of each element by pairwise comparison. By using scale system, the qualitative judgment is quantified and the judgment matrix is constructed. A certain mathematical method is used to calculate the weight of each element. Finally, the relative importance of the planning scheme to the total objective is obtained by using the weighted summation method, and the planning scheme is sorted according to the relative importance degree, and the optimization is selected. But it is hard to avoid the subjectivity when using AHP to calculate the index weight, and the evaluation method is relatively simple when evaluating the planning. According to the characteristics of the comprehensive evaluation of distribution network planning, this paper studies the shortcomings and improvement of the application of AHP in the evaluation work. The traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) index weight calculation reflects the importance of the index, but does not reflect the characteristics of the index data. In this paper, the variable weight theory is introduced to modify the index weight. In view of the difficulty of selecting state variable weight vector and the low maneuverability of traditional variable weight calculation method, a variable weight calculation method based on shape similarity is proposed in this paper. The proposed method avoids the selection of state variable weight vector and adjusts the weight by setting the reference sequence. The rationality of the proposed method is demonstrated by an example. When the traditional AHP is used to evaluate the planning scheme, the relative importance of the planning scheme to the total objective is used to rank the planning scheme. The relative importance is only a means to measure the merits and demerits of each scheme. It is not comprehensive and multi-angle evaluation of the planning scheme. In this paper, a grey relational analysis method considering equilibrium is proposed. A new method of relative correlation degree is constructed by combining the approximate ideal method with Dunn's correlation degree to evaluate the degree of closeness between the planning scheme and the ideal scheme. At the same time, the slope correlation degree is introduced, and the idea of evaluating the equilibrium of each index level in the planning scheme is put forward by using the slope correlation degree. Finally, the relative correlation degree and slope correlation degree are combined to construct the comprehensive correlation degree. The planning scheme is sorted by the value of the comprehensive correlation degree, and the optimum is chosen. Compared with the traditional analytic hierarchy process, the comprehensive evaluation method proposed in this paper can evaluate the planning scheme more comprehensively and from different angles. Through the analysis of examples, it is proved that the comprehensive evaluation method proposed in this paper is feasible and scientific and reasonable.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TM715

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 張南;牛騰冉;徐建華;王辛;曹禹;孫劍男;;基于模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法的某型布雷裝備系統(tǒng)效能評(píng)估[J];兵器裝備工程學(xué)報(bào);2017年08期

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本文編號(hào)：2228317