【摘要】：進(jìn)入21世紀(jì),隨著國(guó)家、人民生產(chǎn)和生活水平的提高,對(duì)電的需求也日益增大,然而電力系統(tǒng)事故的頻繁發(fā)生己成為一個(gè)嚴(yán)重阻礙社會(huì)發(fā)展的問題。當(dāng)然,有許多方面的原因能夠造成電力系統(tǒng)故事,其中惡劣天氣以其強(qiáng)大的破壞力對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的影響是十分巨大的。在惡劣天氣下電力系統(tǒng)事故屬性中又有許多規(guī)律性的規(guī)則隱藏在其中,如果我們從這些數(shù)據(jù)的科學(xué)分析中挖掘出其潛在的聯(lián)系,那么相關(guān)部門在改進(jìn)電力系統(tǒng)安全、防范惡劣天氣災(zāi)害現(xiàn)狀做出的決策就有科學(xué)可據(jù)了。本文首先針對(duì)惡劣天氣下電力系統(tǒng)事故加以研究,概述了現(xiàn)階段國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)事故分析的方法。通過分析得出惡劣天氣下電力系統(tǒng)事故表現(xiàn)出多樣性與繁雜性,這就意味著,對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行處理和分析的方式、方法已不能與以往一樣,要有所創(chuàng)新、突破。因此采用數(shù)據(jù)挖掘中的關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則來(lái)從大量數(shù)據(jù)中發(fā)現(xiàn)人們還未知的一些知識(shí),并闡述了關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則的基本知識(shí)；然后在真實(shí)的電力系統(tǒng)事故案例中使用關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則技術(shù),從中搜索到有價(jià)值的信息,發(fā)掘引誘電力系統(tǒng)事故發(fā)生因素之間的某種隱藏規(guī)律。利用某省2008年-2012年110KV及以上輸電線路事故為數(shù)據(jù)源,以時(shí)間-空間-災(zāi)害模式分析了數(shù)據(jù),并給出了電力系統(tǒng)事故屬性的描述,建立電力系統(tǒng)事故屬性的模型,組織凌亂無(wú)章的電力系統(tǒng)事故數(shù)據(jù)源,將其預(yù)處理為可進(jìn)行挖掘的屬性信息；最后根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)的分析,研究并改進(jìn)關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則Apriori算法,將算法應(yīng)用在數(shù)據(jù)上進(jìn)行關(guān)聯(lián)挖掘,導(dǎo)出影響電力系統(tǒng)安全事故因素的關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則。通過人工調(diào)控削弱影響電力系統(tǒng)事故發(fā)生因素之間的關(guān)聯(lián),減少發(fā)生事故的條件,那么一定程度上可以預(yù)防和減少事故的發(fā)生。本文通過分析電力系統(tǒng)事故數(shù)據(jù),建立了電力系統(tǒng)事故模型,并將關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則投入到電力系統(tǒng)事故的理論分析與實(shí)際應(yīng)用中,實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果證明了關(guān)聯(lián)規(guī)則技術(shù)在電力系統(tǒng)事故數(shù)據(jù)分析上具有的實(shí)用性和有效性。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, with the improvement of national production and living standards, the demand for electricity is increasing. However, the frequent occurrence of power system accidents has become a serious obstacle to social development. There are, of course, many reasons for the power system story, and the impact of bad weather on the power system with its powerful destructive power is enormous. There are many regular rules hidden in the attributes of power system accidents in bad weather. If we dig out the potential link from the scientific analysis of these data, then the relevant departments are improving the safety of power system. There is scientific evidence for decisions to be made against the current situation of severe weather disasters. In this paper, the power system accidents in severe weather are studied, and the analysis methods of power system accidents at home and abroad at present are summarized. Through analysis, it is concluded that power system accidents in bad weather show diversity and complexity, which means that the methods of data processing and analysis cannot be innovated and broken through as before. Therefore, the association rules in data mining are used to find some unknown knowledge from a large amount of data, and the basic knowledge of association rules is expounded, and then the association rules technology is used in real power system accident cases. By searching valuable information, we can find some hidden rules between the factors that induce power system accidents. Using 110KV and above transmission line accidents of a province from 2008 to 2012 as data sources, the data are analyzed by time-space-disaster model, and the description of power system accident attribute is given, and the model of power system accident attribute is established. Organize the unordered power system accident data source, preprocess it as the attribute information that can be mined; finally, according to the analysis of data, research and improve the association rule Apriori algorithm, and apply the algorithm to the data association mining. The association rules which affect the safety accident factors of power system are derived. To some extent, it can prevent and reduce the occurrence of accidents by weakening the relationship between the factors that affect the power system accidents and reducing the conditions of the accidents. Based on the analysis of power system accident data, a power system accident model is established, and the association rules are applied to the theoretical analysis and practical application of power system accidents. The experimental results show the practicability and effectiveness of association rule technology in power system accident data analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)沙理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM75;TP311.13
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本文編號(hào)：2223158