【摘要】：城鎮(zhèn)化率是衡量一個國家社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的重要指標(biāo)之一。近年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)不斷發(fā)展,社會不斷進(jìn)步,許多農(nóng)村、鄉(xiāng)、鎮(zhèn)逐漸向城市轉(zhuǎn)型。城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展將逐漸加大能源消耗,尤以電力能源消耗增速最快。農(nóng)網(wǎng)設(shè)備原有較為陳舊,線路多為較早前鋪設(shè),快速的城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè),勢必造成負(fù)荷增多、網(wǎng)損增大、線路過載等問題。深入研究城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展水平與農(nóng)村電力負(fù)荷關(guān)系具有深遠(yuǎn)意義。論文闡述了研究意義,介紹了城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀、負(fù)荷特性研究現(xiàn)狀及協(xié)整理論的應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域。采用人口比重指標(biāo)法計算城鎮(zhèn)化水平,介紹了常用城鎮(zhèn)化水平預(yù)測模型,詳細(xì)說明了當(dāng)前農(nóng)村電網(wǎng)發(fā)展情況及農(nóng)村電網(wǎng)主要負(fù)荷特性指標(biāo)。城鎮(zhèn)化水平與農(nóng)村負(fù)荷均是隨時間變化的時間序列,若未分析序列平穩(wěn)性直接采用ARMA (Auto-Regressive and Moving Average Model自回歸滑動平均)模型,易形成偽回歸。因此,通過ADF (augmented Dickey-Fuller Test)單位根檢驗(yàn)法對城鎮(zhèn)化水平以及農(nóng)網(wǎng)工業(yè)用電、居民生活用電、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)用電、企事業(yè)單位用電負(fù)荷進(jìn)行序列平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn),檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果說明,這些數(shù)據(jù)序列均為非平穩(wěn)時間序列。采用1階差分后將此類非平穩(wěn)序列平穩(wěn)化,從而滿足協(xié)整模型應(yīng)用條件。將城鎮(zhèn)化率與電力負(fù)荷納入?yún)f(xié)整模型,通過檢驗(yàn)協(xié)整模型的殘差序列平穩(wěn)性,驗(yàn)證了模型的正確性。對城鎮(zhèn)化水平和農(nóng)網(wǎng)負(fù)荷年總用電量及年最大負(fù)荷進(jìn)行格蘭杰因果(Granger)檢驗(yàn)分析,得出其具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)的因果關(guān)系,即城鎮(zhèn)化水平為年總用電量及年最大負(fù)荷的Granger原因。應(yīng)用計量學(xué)模型對城鎮(zhèn)化水平進(jìn)行預(yù)測,根據(jù)其與負(fù)荷關(guān)系的協(xié)整模型預(yù)測2040年各類負(fù)荷年用電量情況及年最大負(fù)荷。本文以湖南某農(nóng)村數(shù)據(jù)為例進(jìn)行仿真運(yùn)算。結(jié)果表明城鎮(zhèn)化水平與農(nóng)村電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷二者確有因果關(guān)系。根據(jù)城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展程度,分析各類負(fù)荷水平,為農(nóng)村電網(wǎng)改造提供依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Urbanization rate is one of the important indicators to measure the level of social and economic development of a country. In recent years, China's economic development, social progress, many rural areas, townships and towns gradually transformed to the city. The development of urbanization will gradually increase energy consumption, especially the fastest growth of electricity energy consumption. The rural power network equipment is old, the lines are laid earlier, the rapid urbanization construction, will inevitably cause the load increase, the network loss increases, the line overload and so on. It is of great significance to study the relationship between the development level of urbanization and rural electric power load. This paper expounds the significance of the research, introduces the present situation of urbanization, the research status of load characteristics and the application field of cointegration theory. In this paper, the urbanization level is calculated by the method of population specific gravity index, and the commonly used forecasting model of urbanization level is introduced. The development situation of rural power grid and the main load characteristic index of rural power network are described in detail. The urbanization level and the rural load are time series with time change. If the smoothness of the sequence is not analyzed, the ARMA (Auto-Regressive and Moving Average Model autoregressive moving average) model can be used directly to form pseudo regression. Therefore, the ADF (augmented Dickey-Fuller Test unit root test method is used to test the level of urbanization and the power consumption of rural network industry, residents' daily life, industrial production, enterprises and institutions, and the results show that, These data sequences are all nonstationary time series. The first order difference is used to stabilize the nonstationary sequence, which satisfies the application condition of the cointegration model. The urbanization rate and power load are incorporated into the cointegration model, and the correctness of the model is verified by checking the stability of the residual error sequence of the cointegration model. Granger causality (Granger) test was used to analyze the total electricity consumption and the annual maximum load of the urbanization level and the rural network load, and the statistical causality was obtained, that is, the urbanization level was the Granger cause of the total annual electricity consumption and the annual maximum load. The metrology model is used to predict the urbanization level, and the cointegration model based on the relationship between load and load is used to predict the annual electricity consumption and the maximum annual load of various loads in 2040. In this paper, a rural data in Hunan is taken as an example for simulation. The results show that there is a causal relationship between urbanization level and rural power grid load. According to the development of urbanization, all kinds of load levels are analyzed to provide the basis for rural power grid transformation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長沙理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM727.1

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