【摘要】：隨著電網(wǎng)的快速發(fā)展和強對流天氣的增多,由惡劣天氣造成的輸電線路故障頻繁發(fā)生,嚴(yán)重威脅了電網(wǎng)的安全可靠運行。雷電現(xiàn)象生消時間短、變化快,引發(fā)的線路跳閘事件在電網(wǎng)故障統(tǒng)計中所占比例極大。大風(fēng)作用下線路會發(fā)生偏斜,引起的風(fēng)偏放電故障重合閘不易成功。各種自然災(zāi)害尤其是大范圍的災(zāi)害性天氣對輸電線路造成的損壞比電氣事故的影響更為惡劣嚴(yán)重,計及氣象因素對電網(wǎng)故障進(jìn)行預(yù)警研究具有重要意義。本文基于氣象信息對安徽電網(wǎng)的故障進(jìn)行了預(yù)警研究,主要包括由雷電和大風(fēng)引起的故障,并基于氣象信息給出一個電網(wǎng)靜態(tài)安全風(fēng)險評估體系的框架和模型。考慮到雷電現(xiàn)象生消時間短、變化快的特點,利用雷電在線監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù),提出基于圖像識別技術(shù)進(jìn)行雷區(qū)識別,并基于三時次雷區(qū)信息進(jìn)行雷電軌跡追蹤和預(yù)測。同時,對安徽省落雷歷史數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計,得到桿塔的落雷概率。在此基礎(chǔ)之上,結(jié)合輸電線路雷擊跳閘計算方法,利用雷區(qū)預(yù)測信息計算線路的雷擊跳閘概率,實現(xiàn)線路雷害故障預(yù)警。結(jié)合歷史數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行算例分析,結(jié)果表明,基于三時次信息的雷區(qū)預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性較高,相應(yīng)的線路雷擊跳閘概率值也具有較高的準(zhǔn)確率而可以作為雷擊跳閘預(yù)警指標(biāo)。分析風(fēng)的構(gòu)成,對脈動風(fēng)風(fēng)速進(jìn)行模擬。利用幾何方法分析懸垂絕緣子串的風(fēng)偏響應(yīng),對輸電線路在穩(wěn)定風(fēng)和脈動風(fēng)作用下的風(fēng)偏響應(yīng)進(jìn)行對比分析,得出脈動風(fēng)對懸垂絕緣子串風(fēng)偏的影響隨基準(zhǔn)風(fēng)速的增大而增大的結(jié)論。從而以此為基礎(chǔ),提出利用g-h分布擬合脈動風(fēng)風(fēng)速而實現(xiàn)大風(fēng)預(yù)警,并提出基于脈動風(fēng)模擬利用概率統(tǒng)計方法計算輸電線路風(fēng)偏概率。結(jié)合歷史數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行算例分析,結(jié)果表明,g-h分布對脈動風(fēng)風(fēng)速的擬合效果較好,線路風(fēng)偏故障概率預(yù)測也較為準(zhǔn)確。將電網(wǎng)氣象故障概率與電網(wǎng)運行狀態(tài)相結(jié)合,提出基于D5000平臺的電網(wǎng)靜態(tài)安全風(fēng)險評估體系,介紹了其框架與模型構(gòu)成,給出基于氣象信息的全網(wǎng)在線監(jiān)測與評估的實現(xiàn)方案,為建設(shè)電網(wǎng)氣象故障預(yù)警系統(tǒng)給出建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of power grid and the increase of severe convective weather, transmission line faults caused by severe weather frequently occur, which seriously threaten the safe and reliable operation of power grid. The lightning phenomenon has the advantages of short generation time and fast change, which results in a great proportion of line tripping events in power network fault statistics. The fault reclosing caused by wind bias discharge is not easy to succeed because of the deflection of the line under the action of strong wind. All kinds of natural disasters, especially the disastrous weather in a large area, cause more serious damage to transmission lines than electrical accidents, so it is of great significance to study the early warning of power network faults taking into account meteorological factors. In this paper, based on meteorological information, the fault warning of Anhui power grid is studied, including the failure caused by lightning and gale. Based on the meteorological information, the framework and model of a static security risk assessment system for power grid are presented. Considering the characteristics of the lightning phenomenon, such as short duration and fast change, using the on-line monitoring data of lightning and lightning, this paper puts forward a method of minefield identification based on image recognition technology, and tracks and forecasts the lightning track based on the information of 03:00 minefield. At the same time, according to the historical data of falling mine in Anhui Province, the probability of falling out of pole tower is obtained. On this basis, combined with the lightning tripping calculation method of transmission line, the lightning tripping probability of the transmission line is calculated by using the prediction information of minefield, and the lightning damage fault early warning of the transmission line is realized. Combining with the historical data, the results show that the prediction accuracy of the minefield based on 03:00 information is high, and the corresponding lightning tripping probability value has higher accuracy and can be used as an early warning index for lightning tripping. The composition of the wind is analyzed and the wind speed of the pulsating wind is simulated. The wind deviation response of a suspended insulator string is analyzed by geometric method, and the wind deviation response of transmission line under the action of steady wind and pulsating wind is compared and analyzed. It is concluded that the influence of pulsating wind on the wind deviation of the suspended insulator string increases with the increase of the reference wind speed. On this basis, it is proposed to use g-h distribution to fit the wind speed of pulsating wind to realize wind warning, and to calculate the probability of wind deviation of transmission line based on the simulation of pulsating wind. Combining with the historical data, the results show that the distribution of g-h has a better fitting effect on the wind speed of pulsating wind, and the probability of fault prediction of wind deviation of the line is also more accurate. Combining the probability of meteorological failure of power network with the running state of power network, a static security risk assessment system based on D5000 platform is put forward, its framework and model structure are introduced, and the realization scheme of on-line monitoring and evaluation for the whole network based on meteorological information is given. Some suggestions are given for the construction of meteorological fault warning system in power grid.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM75;TM08

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本文編號：2191281