【摘要】：風(fēng)能具有分布范圍廣、清潔、零排放和可再生性等優(yōu)點(diǎn),隨著風(fēng)電技術(shù)日益成熟,風(fēng)力發(fā)電逐漸被認(rèn)為是最具發(fā)展規(guī)模和市場競爭力的可再生能源發(fā)電形式。然而,由于風(fēng)能的隨機(jī)性、間歇性和波動(dòng)性,風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)將對電力系統(tǒng)的安全可靠運(yùn)行帶來不可忽視的影響,尤其在風(fēng)電場并網(wǎng)規(guī)模逐年增大的背景下,如何準(zhǔn)確衡量風(fēng)電場的容量價(jià)值,合理評估風(fēng)電場入網(wǎng)后對系統(tǒng)可靠性及運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響是一個(gè)十分重要的問題。本文在已有相關(guān)理論研究和實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,開展了以下研究工作。 第一,建立自回歸滑動(dòng)平均風(fēng)速預(yù)測模型,并給出了表征風(fēng)電場群間風(fēng)速相關(guān)性大小的表達(dá)式,采用兩狀態(tài)馬爾可夫過程描述風(fēng)電機(jī)組的隨機(jī)停運(yùn),考慮風(fēng)電場的尾流效應(yīng),基于風(fēng)電機(jī)組的功率輸出特性曲線,建立風(fēng)電場的可靠性模型。 第二,從發(fā)電系統(tǒng)可靠性層面,基于序貫蒙特卡羅仿真,采用超線性收斂的拋物線法,計(jì)算風(fēng)電場的容量可信度指標(biāo)。同時(shí),探討了采用不同的指標(biāo)衡量系統(tǒng)的可靠性水平時(shí),容量可信度計(jì)算結(jié)果的差異,并研究了影響容量可信度大小的主要因素。 第三,從長期規(guī)劃角度,根據(jù)大電網(wǎng)中發(fā)電機(jī)、線路、變壓器等元件的停運(yùn)模型,結(jié)合風(fēng)電場的可靠性模型,提出了一套含風(fēng)電場的大電網(wǎng)可靠性評估模型和指標(biāo)評估體系�；贗EEE-RTS79測試算例,分別研究了風(fēng)電場裝機(jī)容量大小、風(fēng)電場替代常規(guī)電源以及風(fēng)電場群之間風(fēng)速的相關(guān)性對大電網(wǎng)可靠性的影響。 第四,從短期運(yùn)行的角度,分析含風(fēng)電場的大電網(wǎng)在運(yùn)行中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,依據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素產(chǎn)生的原因不同,將其分為偶然失效模式、老化失效模式以及預(yù)測的不確定性這三類,并分別建立時(shí)變風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估模型。同時(shí),建立了表征系統(tǒng)短期運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的指標(biāo)體系,包括狀態(tài)類指標(biāo)、越限類指標(biāo)和期望切負(fù)荷量指標(biāo)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,基于IEEE-RTS79算例,研究風(fēng)電場并網(wǎng)對大電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響。
[Abstract]:Wind energy has the advantages of wide distribution, clean, zero emission and renewable. With the development of wind power technology, wind power generation is gradually considered as the most developed scale and market competitiveness of renewable energy generation. However, due to the randomness, intermittency and volatility of wind energy, wind power grid connection will have an important impact on the safe and reliable operation of power system, especially in the background of wind power grid increasing year by year. How to accurately measure the value of wind farm capacity and how to evaluate the impact of wind farm on system reliability and operation risk after entering the network is a very important issue. Based on the relevant theoretical research and practical experience, the following research work has been carried out in this paper. First, an autoregressive sliding average wind speed prediction model is established, and the expression of wind speed correlation between wind farm groups is given. The two-state Markov process is used to describe the random outage of wind turbine units, and the wake effect of wind farm is considered. Based on the power output characteristic curve of wind turbine, the reliability model of wind farm is established. Secondly, based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation and superlinearly convergent parabola method, the capacity reliability index of wind farm is calculated from the reliability level of power generation system. At the same time, the difference of the calculation results of capacity reliability is discussed when different indexes are used to measure the reliability level of the system, and the main factors influencing the reliability of capacity are studied. Thirdly, from the long-term planning point of view, according to the outage model of generator, line, transformer and other components in large power network, combined with the reliability model of wind farm, a set of reliability evaluation model and index evaluation system of large power network with wind farm are put forward. Based on IEEE-RTS79 test examples, the effects of wind farm installed capacity, wind farm replacing conventional power supply and wind speed correlation among wind farm groups on the reliability of large power grid are studied respectively. Fourthly, from the perspective of short-term operation, the risk factors of large power grid with wind farm in operation are analyzed. According to the different causes of risk factors, the risk factors are classified into three categories: accidental failure mode, aging failure mode and uncertainty of prediction. Time-varying risk assessment models are established respectively. At the same time, an index system is established to represent the short-term operating risk of the system, including the state index, the over-limit index and the expected load shedding index. On this basis, based on the IEEE-RTS79 example, the influence of wind farm grid connection on the operation risk of large power grid is studied.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM732

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本文編號：2188215