【摘要】：自然災(zāi)害、人為災(zāi)害以及電網(wǎng)體系內(nèi)的偶然故障都可能造成電網(wǎng)設(shè)施損壞，進(jìn)而擴(kuò)散至其他基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施部門，負(fù)面后果被成倍放大，爆發(fā)關(guān)鍵基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施相繼故障的“連鎖效應(yīng)”，給社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)體系帶來(lái)巨大的損失。電網(wǎng)災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)任務(wù)體系應(yīng)支持掌握足夠的災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)信息，以支持應(yīng)急決策分析，從而識(shí)別應(yīng)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，在有限的應(yīng)對(duì)能力下控制災(zāi)情避免其擴(kuò)大。災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)時(shí)可能面對(duì)不確定的、模糊的、隨機(jī)的復(fù)雜情境，如何發(fā)現(xiàn)關(guān)鍵應(yīng)對(duì)失效是一項(xiàng)難度較大的課題。本文就電網(wǎng)災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)體系中的失效事件作為研究對(duì)象，以故障樹(shù)方法為邏輯主線提出一套對(duì)應(yīng)的理論與方法框架。 首先，界定了電網(wǎng)災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)情景中的致災(zāi)因子、承災(zāi)體、孕災(zāi)環(huán)境與抗災(zāi)體等基本要素，特別是提出情景應(yīng)對(duì)失效驅(qū)動(dòng)因子，用來(lái)體現(xiàn)應(yīng)對(duì)失效導(dǎo)致的災(zāi)情演變。給出災(zāi)害應(yīng)對(duì)失效的廣義概念使其與傳統(tǒng)失效理論狹義定義區(qū)別開(kāi)來(lái)，并從應(yīng)對(duì)失效的來(lái)源角度，分災(zāi)害情景意外、應(yīng)對(duì)準(zhǔn)備不適與應(yīng)對(duì)響應(yīng)不當(dāng)三個(gè)方面探究其溯源。基于以上基礎(chǔ)分析，刻畫了應(yīng)對(duì)系統(tǒng)能力喪失與能力衰退的表征，分析這兩類失效發(fā)生在初始與中間階段對(duì)電網(wǎng)災(zāi)情救援的影響。最后，基于三階段任務(wù)的失效子系統(tǒng)概念模型得以建立。 其次，構(gòu)建了電網(wǎng)應(yīng)急的基本故障樹(shù)模型，分為應(yīng)對(duì)情景認(rèn)知、應(yīng)對(duì)資源管理、臨時(shí)供電任務(wù)與搶修執(zhí)行任務(wù)四類模型，，用以尋求應(yīng)對(duì)響應(yīng)體系中的非期望頂事件。面向特定情景，給出了基于Delphi法的情景故障樹(shù)生成流程。為便于數(shù)據(jù)共享與傳輸，使用XML文檔存儲(chǔ)案例中的情景故障樹(shù)。 然后，在定性方面，利用二元決策圖轉(zhuǎn)換方法結(jié)合相鄰節(jié)點(diǎn)優(yōu)先法得到最小割集；在定量方面，為解決不確定環(huán)境下的概率評(píng)估問(wèn)題，結(jié)合D-S證據(jù)理論與梯形模糊數(shù)的語(yǔ)義評(píng)價(jià)法生成失效事件概率，根據(jù)獲得的專家評(píng)估概率計(jì)算頂事件的發(fā)生率以及各底事件的敏感度與重要度度量，最后通過(guò)灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度識(shí)別出關(guān)鍵失效事件集合。 最后，以深圳電網(wǎng)為例，驗(yàn)證了本文所提出的模型與方法。
[Abstract]:Natural disasters, man-made disasters and accidental failures within the grid system can all cause damage to power grid facilities, which can spread to other infrastructure sectors, with negative consequences multiplied and "cascading effects" of successive failures of critical infrastructure, Bring huge losses to the social and economic system. The grid disaster response task system should support to grasp enough disaster data information to support emergency decision analysis, so as to identify the response risk, and to control the disaster situation to avoid its expansion under the limited response ability. Disaster response may be faced with uncertain, fuzzy, random complex situation, how to find the key response failure is a difficult task. In this paper, the failure events in the disaster response system of power grid are studied, and a set of corresponding theory and method framework is put forward, which takes the fault tree method as the logical main line. First of all, the basic factors of power grid disaster response scenarios, such as disaster response factors, disaster tolerance, disaster environment and disaster resistance, are defined. In particular, a scenario response failure driving factor is proposed to reflect the disaster situation evolution caused by response failure. The generalized concept of disaster response failure is given to distinguish it from the narrow definition of traditional failure theory. From the point of view of the source of response failure, this paper probes into its source from three aspects: accident, malaise and improper response. Based on the above basic analysis, this paper describes the characteristics of capacity loss and capability decline in response system, and analyzes the effects of these two kinds of failures in the initial and intermediate stages on power grid disaster rescue. Finally, the concept model of failure subsystem based on three-stage task is established. Secondly, the basic fault tree model of power grid emergency response is constructed, which is divided into four types: response scenario cognition, response to resource management, temporary power supply task and emergency repair execution task, in order to seek to deal with unexpected top events in response system. A scenario fault tree generation process based on Delphi method is presented for specific scenarios. To facilitate data sharing and transmission, XML documents are used to store situational fault trees in cases. Then, in the qualitative aspect, the minimum cut set is obtained by using the binary decision graph transformation method combined with the adjacent node priority method, and in the quantitative aspect, in order to solve the problem of probability evaluation in uncertain environment, Combined with D-S evidence theory and the semantic evaluation method of trapezoid fuzzy number, the probability of failure event is generated. According to the expert evaluation probability obtained, the incidence rate of top event and the sensitivity and importance of each bottom event are calculated. Finally, the key failure event set is identified by grey correlation degree. Finally, taking Shenzhen Power Grid as an example, the model and method proposed in this paper are verified.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM73

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