本文選題：變電站綜合自動(dòng)化改造 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別�。� 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著電網(wǎng)的快速發(fā)展,變電站由常規(guī)站改造為綜自站已成為電力發(fā)展的必然趨勢(shì)。由于該類工程有規(guī)模大、時(shí)間跨度長(zhǎng)、施工難度高、安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大的特點(diǎn),開(kāi)展項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理與控制研究是十分必要的。本文依據(jù)科學(xué)的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論,分析并確定了變電站綜自改造項(xiàng)目常用的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、估計(jì)、評(píng)價(jià)常用的方法或工具,其中,項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別常用的方法有頭腦風(fēng)暴法、流程圖法、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)核對(duì)表法,項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)常用的方法是主觀評(píng)分法和概率估算法,項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)常用的方法有模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法、層次分析法和LEC風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)法。依據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理規(guī)劃理論,編制了MD變電站綜自改造項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理規(guī)劃。利用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別理論,按照變電站綜自改造項(xiàng)目實(shí)施過(guò)程逐一分析了常見(jiàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素并繪制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別表,MD變電站綜自改造項(xiàng)目一級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)6個(gè),二級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)24個(gè)。構(gòu)建了變電站綜自改造項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系,其中,整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型用于變電站綜自改造項(xiàng)目整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估,優(yōu)化的LEC方法用于變電站綜自改造項(xiàng)目二級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)危險(xiǎn)程度評(píng)估；經(jīng)綜合評(píng)估MD變電站綜自改造項(xiàng)目整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)系數(shù)為0.581,屬中等風(fēng)險(xiǎn),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在可控范圍內(nèi)；稍有危險(xiǎn)的二級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)13個(gè),一般危險(xiǎn)的二級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)7個(gè),顯著危險(xiǎn)的二級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)3個(gè),高度危險(xiǎn)的二級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)1個(gè)。依據(jù)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略,提出MD變電站綜自改造項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施；最后,結(jié)合綜自改造項(xiàng)目特征,提出綜自改造項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)警模式。該項(xiàng)研究有利于變電站綜自改造項(xiàng)目組織實(shí)施,為預(yù)期目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)提供了保證,同時(shí)對(duì)其他電力改造項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理具有借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of power network, the transformation of substation from conventional station to integrated self-station has become an inevitable trend of power development. Due to the characteristics of large scale, long time span, high construction difficulty and high safety risk, it is necessary to carry out research on project risk management and control. Based on the scientific project risk management theory, this paper analyzes and determines the commonly used methods or tools of risk identification, estimation and evaluation of substation comprehensive self-transformation projects, among which the common methods of project risk identification are brainstorming. Flow chart method, risk check list method, project risk estimation are subjective scoring method and probability estimation method. The common methods of project risk evaluation are fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, AHP method and LEC risk evaluation method. According to the theory of risk management planning, the risk management plan of MD substation comprehensive self-transformation project is worked out. Based on the theory of risk identification, the common risk factors are analyzed one by one according to the implementation process of the project and the risk identification table is drawn up. There are 6 first-grade risks and 24 second-level risks in MD substation self-transformation projects. In this paper, a risk evaluation system of substation comprehensive self-transformation project is constructed, in which the overall risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is used to evaluate the overall risk of the comprehensive self-transformation project of substation. The optimized LEC method is used to assess the secondary risk degree of the comprehensive self-transformation project in substations, and the overall risk coefficient of the comprehensive evaluation is 0.581in MD substation, which belongs to the medium risk and the risk is under control. There are 13 secondary risks with slight danger, 7 with general risk, 3 with significant risk and 1 with high risk. According to the project risk response strategy, put forward the MD substation comprehensive self-transformation project risk response measures; finally, combined with the characteristics of the comprehensive self-transformation project, put forward the comprehensive self-transformation project risk monitoring and early warning model. This study is beneficial to the organization and implementation of the substation comprehensive self-transformation project, and provides a guarantee for the realization of the expected goal, and also has reference significance for the risk management of other electric power transformation projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F272.3;F426.61

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本文編號(hào)：2087104