本文選題：核安全 + 概率安全評價��； 參考：《中國科學技術大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：核能是目前一種非常重要的能源類型,而核安全是核能與核技術利用事業(yè)發(fā)展的生命線。有效的核安全分析方法能夠幫助提高核電廠的安全性,以故障樹分析(FTA)為主要技術手段的概率安全評價(PSA)方法在核能安全領域發(fā)揮著重要作用,已經(jīng)成為核安全分析的主要方法之一。 在核電廠PSA中,往往會產(chǎn)生規(guī)模非常大的故障樹。大規(guī)模故障樹的高效分析是一個非常困難的問題。本文結合核電廠實時風險分析的特點,從大規(guī)模故障樹的預處理與定性分析入手展開深入研究,提出了一套基于改進型零壓縮二元決策圖的快速FTA方法,以滿足核電廠實時風險分析的要求。在這套方法中,快速、充分的故障樹規(guī)范化、化簡與模塊化算法,以及多種高效的零壓縮二元決策圖基本事件排序方法及并行計算方法得以發(fā)展,較大程度的提高了FTA的效率和速度。 在中科院核能安全技術研究所.FDS團隊前期開發(fā)的RiskA工作基礎上,本文的主要工作與貢獻之處在于：(1)提出了用于處理高階K/N門的降階組合算法和二分組合算法,使得高階K/N門能被快速處理；(2)提出了一種基于故障樹分頁存儲的故障樹化簡方法,使得在內存占用較小的分頁存儲情況下也能收到較好的化簡效果,與改進前RiskA相比節(jié)省了30%-70%內存,計算速度提高了1-10倍；(3)提出了一種動態(tài)調整化簡策略以提高模塊化程度的方法,對同一個故障樹實例提高模塊數(shù)量0.5-1倍；(4)提出了一種基于割集信息零壓縮二元決策圖基本事件排序方法,與改進前RiskA相比運行時間約減少50%以上,內存占用降低約20%：(5)提出了一種基于割集信息與故障樹結構的混合排序方法,犧牲了少量內存方面的性能,使得計算速度基于割集的排序方法進一步提升約1-2倍；(6)提出了一種基于零壓縮二元決策圖的故障樹分層并行求解算法,效率明顯高于串行算法,與改進前RiskA相比提速達到4-6倍。 此外,基于上述方法開發(fā)了一個可進行快速FTA、具有很強實用性的工業(yè)級軟件包RiskAT.所發(fā)展的快速FTA算法能解決核電廠實時處理大規(guī)模故障樹存在的問題,促進FTA方法在核能安全領域的進一步應用和發(fā)展。RiskAT在秦山第三核電廠的事故序列定量分析中得到了成功應用,計算結果正確可靠,尤其是在計算速度方面明顯優(yōu)于同類商業(yè)軟件,為秦山第三核電廠快速高效的進行分析工作提供了重要的技術支持。
[Abstract]:Nuclear energy is a very important type of energy at present, and nuclear safety is the lifeline of the development of nuclear energy and nuclear technology utilization. Effective nuclear safety analysis method can help to improve the safety of nuclear power plants. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method, which takes fault tree analysis (FTA) as the main technical means, plays an important role in the field of nuclear safety. It has become one of the main methods of nuclear safety analysis. In nuclear power plant PSA, a very large fault tree is often produced. Efficient analysis of large-scale fault trees is a very difficult problem. Based on the characteristics of real time risk analysis of nuclear power plants, a set of fast FTA method based on improved zero compression binary decision graph is proposed in this paper, which is based on the pre-processing and qualitative analysis of large-scale fault trees. To meet the nuclear power plant real-time risk analysis requirements. In this set of methods, fast and sufficient fault tree normalization, simplification and modularization algorithms, as well as a variety of efficient zero-compression binary decision graph basic event sequencing methods and parallel computing methods have been developed. The efficiency and speed of FTA are greatly improved. Based on the work of RiskA developed by the Institute of Nuclear Safety Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the main work and contributions of this paper are as follows: (1) A reduced order combination algorithm and a binary combination algorithm for dealing with higher-order K / N gates are proposed. The high order K / N gate can be processed quickly. (2) A fault tree simplification method based on fault tree paging storage is proposed, which can get better simplification effect in the case of smaller memory footprint. Compared with RiskA before the improvement, RiskA saves 30-70% memory, and the calculation speed increases 1-10 times. (3) A dynamic reduction strategy is proposed to improve the modularization degree, and the number of modules is increased 0.5-1 times for the same fault tree instance. (4) A method for sorting basic events based on zero-compression binary decision graph based on cut-set information is proposed. The running time of RiskA is reduced by more than 50% compared with that of RiskA. The memory footprint is reduced by about 20%: (5) A hybrid sorting method based on the cut-set information and the fault tree structure is proposed, which sacrifices the performance of a small amount of memory and further improves the speed of the sorting method based on the cut-set by about 1-2 times; (6) A fault tree hierarchical parallel algorithm based on zero-compression binary decision graph is proposed, which is more efficient than the serial algorithm, and the speed is 4-6 times higher than that of RiskA before the improvement. In addition, based on the above method, a fast FTA-capable industrial class software package, RiskAT. is developed. The developed fast FTA algorithm can solve the problem of real-time processing of large-scale fault trees in nuclear power plants. To promote the further application and development of FTA method in the field of nuclear energy safety. RiskAT has been successfully applied in the quantitative analysis of accident sequence of Qinshan No.3 Nuclear Power Plant. The calculation results are correct and reliable. Especially, it is superior to the similar commercial software in computing speed, which provides an important technical support for the rapid and efficient analysis of Qinshan No.3 Nuclear Power Plant.
【學位授予單位】：中國科學技術大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM623.8

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