本文選題：電網(wǎng)故障 + 連鎖故障��； 參考：《華南理工大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：隨著電網(wǎng)規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大和區(qū)域聯(lián)網(wǎng)，電網(wǎng)發(fā)生連鎖故障的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不斷增加。大量的故障統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)表明，盡管電網(wǎng)發(fā)生連鎖故障的概率較小，但其一旦發(fā)生，其后果是極其嚴(yán)重的。因此，認(rèn)識(shí)電網(wǎng)連鎖故障并揭示其形成機(jī)理具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義和理論價(jià)值。本文應(yīng)用復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)理論分析電網(wǎng)故障的時(shí)空分布特性和電網(wǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)的分形特性，試圖從新的角度認(rèn)識(shí)電網(wǎng)的自組織臨界性，從而更細(xì)致地描述電網(wǎng)的脆弱性以及電網(wǎng)連鎖故障的發(fā)生機(jī)理。本文重點(diǎn)在以下幾個(gè)方面開展了較為深入的研究： 第一，發(fā)現(xiàn)電網(wǎng)故障在時(shí)間上具有強(qiáng)長(zhǎng)程相關(guān)性，空間上具有冪律分布特性。經(jīng)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析某省級(jí)電網(wǎng)12年零8個(gè)月的實(shí)際故障數(shù)據(jù)，得出電網(wǎng)故障時(shí)間間隔序列具有無(wú)標(biāo)度特性；采用R/S和SWV模型計(jì)算Hurst指數(shù)，得到的Hurst指數(shù)均為0.86以上，說(shuō)明電網(wǎng)故障序列具有強(qiáng)長(zhǎng)程相關(guān)性，存在異常擴(kuò)散；將故障序列按故障發(fā)生位置所屬的設(shè)備分為五個(gè)子序列，各子序列仍然具有無(wú)標(biāo)度性和長(zhǎng)程相關(guān)性。通過對(duì)該省級(jí)電網(wǎng)故障的發(fā)生地點(diǎn)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)，，得到電網(wǎng)故障的地點(diǎn)與其出現(xiàn)的頻次呈冪律分布。 第二，發(fā)現(xiàn)電網(wǎng)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)具有相似性。通過對(duì)五個(gè)電網(wǎng)分別構(gòu)建無(wú)權(quán)和加權(quán)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型，實(shí)證分析了電網(wǎng)的中心性和層次性，得到五個(gè)電網(wǎng)都具有小世界特性，并尋找到電網(wǎng)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)中的關(guān)鍵節(jié)點(diǎn)；發(fā)現(xiàn)無(wú)權(quán)電網(wǎng)具有異配性，度分布為指數(shù)分布，而加權(quán)電網(wǎng)具有同配性，點(diǎn)權(quán)分布有冪律尾現(xiàn)象。此外，詳細(xì)討論了在電網(wǎng)中起重要傳輸作用的三節(jié)點(diǎn)和四節(jié)點(diǎn)模體，得出由500kV和220kV線路構(gòu)成的子圖是電網(wǎng)模體的主要結(jié)構(gòu)形式。這些結(jié)構(gòu)子圖也是電網(wǎng)的關(guān)鍵組元，并起著主要的傳輸作用。由于高電壓等級(jí)的節(jié)點(diǎn)互連成為電網(wǎng)的模體，使得加權(quán)電網(wǎng)總體上表現(xiàn)為同配性質(zhì)。 第三，發(fā)現(xiàn)電網(wǎng)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)的特征值譜具有多重分形特征。基于IEEE118節(jié)點(diǎn)系統(tǒng)和某省級(jí)電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)，構(gòu)建了以導(dǎo)納為邊權(quán)的加權(quán)拓?fù)淠Ｐ停玫较鄳?yīng)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)的鄰接矩陣和拉普拉斯矩陣。采用MF-DFA方法對(duì)電網(wǎng)兩類矩陣的特征值譜進(jìn)行分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)這兩類矩陣的特征值譜都表現(xiàn)出典型的多重分形特征，說(shuō)明了電網(wǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)在生長(zhǎng)和演化過程中具有某種程度上的統(tǒng)計(jì)相似性，而且是一種內(nèi)在的固有特性。雖然不同電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)特征值譜的多重分形特性之間有些差異，但基于拉普拉斯矩陣特征值譜的多重分形特性在不同電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)間的差異明顯減少，表明拉普拉斯矩陣特征值譜體現(xiàn)了更一般的網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)特征。 第四，提出分析電網(wǎng)線路故障傳播的閾值模型�；谠撻撝的Ｐ投康胤治隽穗娋W(wǎng)線路故障引起連鎖故障的臨界閾值，并發(fā)現(xiàn)線路的臨界閾值越大，該線路對(duì)電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的脆弱性影響程度就越大。此閾值模型為電網(wǎng)尋找關(guān)鍵線路提供了新方法。通過兩個(gè)不同規(guī)模的算例實(shí)證分析，證明了此方法的正確性和有效性。
[Abstract]:With the expansion of power grid scale and regional interconnection, the risk of cascading faults is increasing. A large number of fault statistics show that, although the probability of cascading faults in power network is small, once they occur, the consequences are extremely serious. Therefore, it is of great practical significance and theoretical value to understand the cascading faults and reveal the formation mechanism of them. In this paper, the space-time distribution characteristics of power network faults and the fractal characteristics of power network structure are analyzed by using the complex system theory, and the self-organized criticality of the power network is analyzed from a new angle. Thus, the vulnerability of power grid and the occurrence mechanism of cascading faults are described in more detail. This paper focuses on the following aspects: first, it is found that the power grid faults have strong long-term correlation in time and power law distribution in space. Based on the statistical analysis of the actual fault data of a provincial power network for 12 years and 8 months, it is concluded that the fault interval series has scale-free characteristics, and the Hurst exponents are calculated by using the R / S and SWV models, and the Hurst exponents are all above 0.86. The fault sequence is divided into five sub-sequences according to the fault location, and each sub-sequence still has scale-free and long-range correlation. Based on the statistics of the fault location of the provincial power grid, the power law distribution between the fault location and the frequency is obtained. Secondly, it is found that the topology of the power system is similar. Through the establishment of weighted and weighted network models for five power grids, this paper empirically analyzes the centrality and hierarchy of power grid, and obtains that all five power grids have small-world characteristics, and find out the key nodes in the network topology. It is found that the power grid has the heterogeneity, the degree distribution is exponential distribution, and the weighted power grid has the same distribution, and the point weight distribution has the phenomenon of power law tail. In addition, the three-node and four-node motifs which play an important role in transmission in the power network are discussed in detail. It is concluded that the sub-graph composed of 500kV and 220kV transmission lines is the main structural form of the motifs. These structural subgraphs are also key components of the grid and play a major role in transmission. Because of the interconnection of nodes of high voltage level into the mode of power grid, the weighted power grid is identical in nature. Thirdly, it is found that the eigenvalue spectrum of power network topology has multifractal features. Based on the IEEE 118 bus system and a provincial power network system, a weighted topological model with admittance as the edge weight is constructed, and the adjacent matrix and Laplace matrix of the corresponding topology structure are obtained. The MF-DFA method is used to analyze the eigenvalue spectrum of two kinds of matrices in power network. It is found that the eigenvalue spectrum of these two kinds of matrices shows typical multifractal characteristics. It is shown that the network structure has some degree of statistical similarity in the process of growth and evolution, and it is an inherent characteristic. Although there are some differences between multifractal characteristics of eigenvalue spectrum in different power systems, the multifractal characteristics based on Laplace matrix eigenvalue spectrum are significantly reduced among different power systems. It is shown that the eigenvalue spectrum of Laplace matrix embodies more general characteristics of network structure. Fourth, a threshold model for power line fault propagation is proposed. Based on the threshold model, the critical threshold of cascading fault caused by power line fault is quantitatively analyzed, and it is found that the greater the critical threshold of line, the greater the influence of the line on the vulnerability of power system. This threshold model provides a new method for power grid to find key lines. The validity and validity of this method are proved by two examples of different scales.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM711

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