本文選題：電動汽車 + 充換電設施��； 參考：《華北電力大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：在能源危機和環(huán)境惡化壓力下,全球已進入發(fā)展低碳經濟的新時代。發(fā)展電動汽車作為解決能源和環(huán)境問題的重要手段,得到各國政府和企業(yè)的高度關注。以新能源汽車為標志的新一輪技術革命,為我國的汽車產業(yè)轉型升級,真正實現自主創(chuàng)新和技術追趕提供了歷史性的機遇。電動汽車充換電設施建設是大力發(fā)展電動汽車的基礎,只有建立完善的電動汽車充換電基礎設施,才能大規(guī)模普及推廣電動汽車的應用。目前,電動汽車行業(yè)正處于起步階段,其發(fā)展存在諸多不確定因素,電動汽車充換電設施建設項目存在風險。它不完全等同于電網公司原來的變電站項目,存在一定的不確定因素,而這些不確定因素可能導致一些不可避免的風險,進而對充換電設施建設項目的實施以及未來的運營帶來不利的影響。因此有必要對充換電設施項目展開相關研究,以求在進行項目建設的過程中合理規(guī)劃、科學布局、規(guī)避風險。 本文首先介紹了項目風險識別、評價及規(guī)避策略的基本理論,將項目風險管理理論引入電動汽車充換電設施項目管理中。采用德爾菲法識別了電動汽車充換電設施項目面臨的技術因素、市場因素、政策因素、充換電設施建設及運營服務因素及資金因素等風險因素。在此基礎上,確定各指標權重,并使用模糊綜合評價法對風險進行了評價,構建電動汽車換電站建設項目綜合評價指標體系；運用層次分析法(AHP法)計算各級綜合評價指標權重,分析不同因子對總體風險的影響程度,在多級模糊綜合評價模型(FCE)下定量研究當前換電站建設項目的不確定因素情況；根據風險因素分析結果提出基于政策風險、市場風險、技術風險、電動汽車充換電設施建設及運營服務風險和資金風險等不同風險因素的風險規(guī)避措施。論文對電動汽車充換電設施建設項目面臨的不確定風險因素進行了研究,對其面臨的不確定風險因素進行了風險識別及風險評價,提出了規(guī)避風險的應對策略,希望能為今后電動汽車充換電設施項目建設提供一定的參考。
[Abstract]:Under the pressure of energy crisis and environmental deterioration, the world has entered a new era of developing low-carbon economy. The development of electric vehicles as an important means to solve energy and environmental problems has been highly concerned by governments and enterprises. The new round of technological revolution, marked by new energy vehicles, provides a historic opportunity for the transformation and upgrading of China's automobile industry and the realization of independent innovation and technological catch-up. The construction of electric vehicle charging and changing facilities is the foundation of developing electric vehicle. Only by establishing perfect electric vehicle charging and changing infrastructure can the application of electric vehicle be popularized on a large scale. At present, the electric vehicle industry is in its initial stage, and there are many uncertain factors in its development. It is not exactly equivalent to the original substation project of the power grid company, and there are certain uncertainties that may lead to some inevitable risks. Furthermore, it will bring adverse influence to the construction project of charging and switching facilities and the future operation. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out relevant research on charging and switching facilities in order to reasonably plan, scientifically distribute and avoid risks in the process of project construction. Firstly, this paper introduces the basic theory of project risk identification, evaluation and evading strategy. This paper introduces the theory of project risk management into the project management of electric vehicle charging and switching facilities. The Delphi method is used to identify the technical factors, market factors, policy factors, construction and operation service factors and fund factors of electric vehicle charging and switching facilities. On this basis, the weight of each index is determined, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of electric vehicle power station construction project is constructed. Using AHP (Analytic hierarchy process) to calculate the weight of comprehensive evaluation indexes at all levels, to analyze the influence of different factors on the overall risk, and to quantitatively study the uncertain factors of the current power station construction projects under the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCE). According to the results of risk factor analysis, the risk aversion measures based on different risk factors, such as policy risk, market risk, technical risk, electric vehicle charging and switching facility construction, operation service risk and capital risk, are put forward. This paper studies the uncertain risk factors faced by the electric vehicle charging and switching facilities construction project, identifies and evaluates the uncertain risk factors it faces, and puts forward the countermeasures to avoid the risks. Hope to provide some reference for the future electric vehicle charging and changing facilities construction.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U469.72;TM910.6

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本文編號：1994789