本文選題：跨區(qū)域 + 電力產(chǎn)業(yè)　； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)電力資源與負(fù)荷分布呈逆向分布,電力資源主要分布在西部、北部地區(qū),而負(fù)荷則主要分布在東部地區(qū),由此造成中國(guó)電力工業(yè)供電成本高昂,風(fēng)電消納困難,輸電損耗嚴(yán)重,電力投資臃腫等窘?jīng)r。對(duì)社會(huì)而言,造成一系列負(fù)外部性效應(yīng),其提高了社會(huì)用電成本,降低了能源利用效率,也加劇了大氣污染程度。如何協(xié)調(diào)電力資源與負(fù)荷分布,實(shí)現(xiàn)電力資源的跨區(qū)域優(yōu)化配置已經(jīng)成為制約電力工業(yè)低碳化、可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題。 傳統(tǒng)模式下電力資源的跨區(qū)域配置主要依賴一次能源運(yùn)輸?shù)哪Ｊ綄?shí)現(xiàn),遠(yuǎn)距離輸電技術(shù)的發(fā)展在一定程度上緩解了傳統(tǒng)能源運(yùn)輸通道的壓力,豐富了電力資源跨區(qū)配置的形式。中國(guó)正致力建設(shè)跨區(qū)域輸電通道,強(qiáng)化區(qū)域間電網(wǎng)架構(gòu),通過(guò)區(qū)域間的發(fā)電置換優(yōu)化清潔能源的利用水平,緩解受端區(qū)域發(fā)電排污壓力。在此背景下,圍繞中國(guó)電力資源跨區(qū)域優(yōu)化配置展開(kāi)研究,重點(diǎn)研究了電力資源與負(fù)荷分布的協(xié)調(diào)狀況,區(qū)域間電力資源配置要素的因果傳遞關(guān)系,區(qū)域間電源與電網(wǎng)協(xié)調(diào)規(guī)劃,大規(guī)模風(fēng)電跨區(qū)域消納以及跨區(qū)域配置下發(fā)電企業(yè)利益分配、交易談判等問(wèn)題。 電力資源與負(fù)荷分布協(xié)調(diào)的程度決定了電力資源跨區(qū)域配置的難度與深度。圍繞中國(guó)電力負(fù)荷與煤炭、水能、風(fēng)能三類能源的分布進(jìn)行分析,借助基尼系數(shù)對(duì)負(fù)荷與能源分布的協(xié)調(diào)程度進(jìn)行測(cè)算。分析結(jié)果表明煤炭、水能、風(fēng)能的分布與負(fù)荷的協(xié)調(diào)程度都比較低,但水電與風(fēng)電開(kāi)發(fā)的傾向性在一定程度上緩解了一次能源與負(fù)荷分布的不協(xié)調(diào)。 電力資源跨區(qū)域配置受到輸電線路容量、輸電價(jià)格、風(fēng)電消納水平等客觀因素的制約,這些因素影響了能源產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈實(shí)物量與價(jià)值量的傳遞與反饋,有鑒于此,構(gòu)建了區(qū)域間電力資源供需的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型。通過(guò)因果關(guān)系圖與流積圖描繪系統(tǒng)中各變量之間因果傳遞關(guān)系,借助Vensim軟件對(duì)區(qū)域間電力資源供需關(guān)系與價(jià)格的變化趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行仿真模擬,并以煤炭供應(yīng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率、風(fēng)電利用小時(shí)以及輸電容量等因素為敏感因子對(duì)電力資源的跨區(qū)域配置狀況進(jìn)行敏感性分析。 電力資源跨區(qū)域配置受區(qū)域間電力規(guī)劃的限制,反之,電力規(guī)劃也在一定程度上左右了電力規(guī)劃的走勢(shì)。以規(guī)劃年內(nèi)發(fā)電綜合成本最小為目標(biāo),考慮了電力平衡、發(fā)電備用、建設(shè)成本的約束條件,構(gòu)建了多類型發(fā)電機(jī)組與跨區(qū)域輸電網(wǎng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的優(yōu)化模型,通過(guò)優(yōu)化協(xié)調(diào)了電源與電網(wǎng)的建設(shè)容量與建設(shè)時(shí)點(diǎn),既保證區(qū)域間電力資源配置的發(fā)展進(jìn)程,提高能源綜合利用效率,同時(shí)避免了因發(fā)電與電網(wǎng)建設(shè)不協(xié)調(diào)而導(dǎo)致投資的浪費(fèi)。 區(qū)域間輸電通道的建設(shè)擴(kuò)大了風(fēng)電的消納空間,在一定程度上降低了棄風(fēng)水平。中短期而言,風(fēng)電可與火電打捆通過(guò)輸電專線輸送至受端區(qū)域；以機(jī)組組合模型為基礎(chǔ),考慮風(fēng)電調(diào)峰、輸電功率波動(dòng)等約束構(gòu)建了風(fēng)火聯(lián)合外送的調(diào)度模型,對(duì)參與電力外送的風(fēng)電與火電進(jìn)行實(shí)時(shí)輸出功率的協(xié)調(diào)優(yōu)化。中長(zhǎng)期而言,風(fēng)電的消納可以借鑒電力庫(kù)模式；配合需求側(cè)負(fù)荷對(duì)電價(jià)的響應(yīng)機(jī)制以及儲(chǔ)能系統(tǒng)對(duì)風(fēng)電反負(fù)荷特性的調(diào)節(jié)能力,通過(guò)改變負(fù)荷與出力的時(shí)間分布以擴(kuò)大風(fēng)電的消納水平。 電力資源跨區(qū)域配置將影響電力市場(chǎng)參與者的市場(chǎng)份額,因此,理順各市場(chǎng)參與者的利益關(guān)系是推進(jìn)電力資源跨區(qū)域配置的基礎(chǔ)。關(guān)于風(fēng)電與火電聯(lián)合外送中雙方利潤(rùn)分配的問(wèn)題,以雙方對(duì)聯(lián)盟效益的貢獻(xiàn)度為依據(jù),借助Shapley值法與核心法對(duì)雙方進(jìn)行利益分配,并以區(qū)域碳交易價(jià)差以及輸電波動(dòng)約束作為敏感因子,研究其對(duì)利益分配份額的影響。關(guān)于區(qū)域間火電機(jī)組發(fā)電權(quán)交易談判的問(wèn)題,基于Zeuthen決策以及貝葉斯學(xué)習(xí)提出一個(gè)雙方逐步估算對(duì)方底價(jià),逐步收斂雙方報(bào)價(jià)差的談判模型,盡可能使雙方效用達(dá)到最大化。
[Abstract]:The electric power resources and load distribution in China are distributed in a reverse direction , and the electric power resources are mainly distributed in the western and northern areas , and the load is mainly distributed in the eastern region , which leads to a series of negative external effects , such as high power supply cost of the power industry , difficulty in wind power consumption , serious transmission loss , heavy power investment and the like .

The cross - region configuration of power resources in the traditional mode is mainly dependent on the mode of primary energy transportation . The development of long - distance transmission technology has relieved the pressure of traditional energy transportation channels to a certain extent and enriched the cross - region configuration of power resources .

The degree of coordination of power resource and load distribution determines the difficulty and depth of power resource cross - region configuration . The distribution of power load and coal , water energy and wind energy in China is analyzed , and the degree of coordination of load and energy distribution is calculated by means of Koniki coefficient . The results show that coal , water energy , wind energy distribution and load coordination degree are relatively low , but the tendency of hydropower and wind power development can alleviate the non - coordination of primary energy and load distribution to some extent .

The cross - region configuration of power resources is restricted by objective factors such as capacity of power transmission lines , transmission price and wind power consumption . These factors influence the transfer and feedback of the real quantity and value of energy industry chain . Based on Vensim software , the relationship between supply and demand of power resources and the trend of price change are simulated , and the sensitivity analysis is made on the cross - region configuration of power resources with the factors such as coal supply , economic growth rate , wind power utilization hour and transmission capacity .

On the contrary , electric power planning is limited by interregional power planning . On the other hand , electric power planning is the trend of electric power planning to a certain extent . The optimization model of coordinated development of multi - type generator sets and trans - regional power transmission networks is established by optimizing the constraint conditions of power balance , power generation reserve and construction cost . By optimizing the coordination of the development process of power supply and power distribution and the construction time point , the development process of the interregional power resource allocation is ensured , and the waste of investment is avoided because of the non - coordination of power generation and power grid .

In the short and short term , wind power can be delivered to the receiving area through the transmission line .
Based on the combination model of wind power and power fluctuation of power transmission , the dispatching model of air - fire combined external transmission is constructed , and the coordination and optimization of the real - time output power of wind power and thermal power outside the power supply are optimized .
The response mechanism of the demand side load to the electricity price and the energy storage system ' s ability to adjust the wind power anti - load characteristic are matched to enlarge the wind power consumption level by changing the time distribution of the load and the output force .

The cross - regional arrangement of power resources will affect the market share of power market participants . Therefore , it is the basis of promoting the cross - regional arrangement of power resources . As a basis of the contribution of both parties to the benefits of the alliance , the paper studies the influence of the two parties on the share of benefit distribution . On the basis of Zeuthen ' s decision - making and Bayesian learning , we propose a negotiation model for the two parties to gradually estimate each other ' s base price and gradually converge the price difference between the two parties , so as to maximize the effectiveness of the two parties .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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本文編號(hào)：1987941