本文選題：風電 + 隨機潮流　； 參考：《華北電力大學(北京)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：隨著電網(wǎng)運行環(huán)境的改變,系統(tǒng)隨機性不斷增強,尤其是風電這一非常規(guī)隨機因素的大規(guī)模并網(wǎng),系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)將更加復(fù)雜多變,這對電網(wǎng)分析及安全評估工作提出了更高要求。隨機潮流(Probabilistic Load Flow, PLF)可綜合考慮多種隨機因素分析出系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)量的概率分布信息,從而更深刻地揭示系統(tǒng)運行特性。因此,隨機潮流可作為新環(huán)境條件下電網(wǎng)分析的一種有力工具。鑒于此,本文以風電并網(wǎng)為背景,對電力系統(tǒng)隨機潮流計算方法及其安全評估應(yīng)用問題展開研究。本文將風電并網(wǎng)電力系統(tǒng)的隨機潮流問題分為中長期和短期兩類。其中,中長期隨機潮流(PLF for Long and Medium Term, LMT-PLF)計算時考慮風電出力從零到滿發(fā)隨機波動,短期隨機潮流(PLF for Short Term, ST-PLF)計算中風電出力隨機性則處理為風電功率預(yù)測誤差隨機性。圍繞上述兩類隨機潮流的計算方法及安全評估應(yīng)用,開展的主要工作歸納如下。針對風場出力在中長期內(nèi)波動可能較大,現(xiàn)有解析法由于采用線性化PLF模型而難以確保LMT-PLF結(jié)果精度,提出了一種基于多點線性化模型的LMT-PLF解析計算方法。建立了適用于風電并網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的多點線性化LMT-PLF模型；采用半不變量法求解所建模型,推導(dǎo)得出了多點線性化條件下系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)量半不變量求解方法,并通過引入C型Gram-Charlier級數(shù),避免了在風電的系統(tǒng)中采用A型Gram-Charlier級數(shù)逼近狀態(tài)量概率密度函數(shù)會出現(xiàn)負值的問題。算例分析表明,所提方法與現(xiàn)有解析法相比,結(jié)果精度得到了較大提高,且對風電并網(wǎng)規(guī)模增加具有較好的適應(yīng)性。鑒于PLF現(xiàn)有方法均采用單一平衡節(jié)點而難以適應(yīng)風電并網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)中長期內(nèi)可能存在的較大范圍出力波動,將動態(tài)潮流思想引入PLF,研究了一種計及頻率調(diào)節(jié)的LMT-PLF計算方法。方法首先結(jié)合系統(tǒng)頻率調(diào)整方式,建立系統(tǒng)注入隨機波動時動態(tài)不平衡功率的分配模型。然后,與現(xiàn)有解析法PLF模型聯(lián)合推導(dǎo),得出了計及調(diào)頻作用的PLF計算模型,且計及了機組調(diào)頻能力不足的影響。針對模型特點,提出了混合求解算法。算例結(jié)果表明,所提方法可保證網(wǎng)內(nèi)各電廠出力按系統(tǒng)實際在合理范圍內(nèi)波動,有效避免了現(xiàn)有方法用于LMT-PLF時平衡機組出現(xiàn)功率越限甚至負功率的情形,從而亦保證了LMT-PLF結(jié)果的正確性。為解決PLF當前方法均假定風電出力等隨機變量的概率分布模型已知而實際系統(tǒng)卻難以提供這一矛盾,基于序列運算理論提出了ST-PLF的一種實用計算方法。方法首先結(jié)合PLF問題的特點,分析了現(xiàn)有序列運算理論直接應(yīng)用于PLF的可行性,并據(jù)此對現(xiàn)有序列運算進行了擴展；然后基于所提擴展運算,以擴展概率性序列描述系統(tǒng)隨機性并基于歷史數(shù)據(jù)實現(xiàn)隨機變量的序列化,通過系統(tǒng)各輸入變量對應(yīng)序列的直接運算快速分析潮流的概率分布,克服了現(xiàn)有方法對基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)要求過高的不足。測試表明,所提方法可有效實現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)注入隨機量概率分布未知情形下的ST-PLF計算,提高了現(xiàn)有方法的可實施性。為有效評價風電并網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的電壓隨機波動情況,從描述電壓隨機分布的特征出發(fā),基于PLF結(jié)果分別定義了電壓分布指數(shù)、偏度指數(shù)、保持指數(shù)三個電壓波動評價指標。最后,以LMT-PLF為例驗證所提方法,結(jié)果表明,所提指標可較好地從整體和局部兩個方面反映風電并網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的電壓隨機分布情況。以測試系統(tǒng)為例,詳細分析了風電場尺度參數(shù)、形狀參數(shù)、風電接入位置等因素對電網(wǎng)電壓波動的影響,為風電的合理并網(wǎng)提供參考。為快速有效評估風電并網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的靜態(tài)安全水平,將PLF引入安全評估。方法以解析法PLF為電網(wǎng)狀態(tài)分析手段,保證評估高效性。從概率和風險兩個角度定義了基于PLF結(jié)果的安全指標,實現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)安全的量化評價�；谠壈踩笜诉M一步給出了系統(tǒng)薄弱環(huán)節(jié)辨識方法。最后,以ST-PLF為例對方法進行驗證,結(jié)果表明,與傳統(tǒng)不確定性評估方法相比,所提方法在保證評估結(jié)果準確性的同時能大幅提高評估效率,可為間歇性能源并網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的安全評估提供借鑒。
[Abstract]:With the change of the operating environment of the power grid, the randomness of the system is constantly enhanced, especially the large-scale grid connection of the wind power, an unconventional random factor, and the system state will be more complex and changeable, which puts forward higher requirements for the analysis of power grid and safety assessment. The random flow (Probabilistic Load Flow, PLF) can consider a variety of random factor analysis The probability distribution information of the system state quantity is given to reveal the characteristics of the system more deeply. Therefore, the random flow can be used as a powerful tool for the analysis of the power grid under the new environment conditions. The random power flow problem of electric grid connected power system is divided into two classes of medium and long term. In the middle and long term random flow (PLF for Long and Medium Term, LMT-PLF) calculation, the wind power output from zero to full random fluctuation is considered, and the short-term random flow (PLF for Short Term, ST-PLF) is used to calculate the randomness of the stroke power output. The main work carried out around the two types of stochastic power flow and the application of the safety assessment are summarized as follows. In view of the possibility that the wind field output may fluctuate in the middle and long term, the existing analytical method is difficult to ensure the accuracy of the LMT-PLF results because of the linear PLF model, and a LM based on the multi point linearization model is proposed. T-PLF analytical calculation method. A multi point linearized LMT-PLF model suitable for wind power grid connected system is established. The semi invariants method is used to solve the built model. The method of solving the semi invariants of the system state quantity under multi point linearization is derived, and the C Gram-Charlier series is introduced to avoid the A Gram-Ch in the wind power system. The arlier series approximated the problem of the negative value of the probability density function of the state quantity. The numerical example shows that the proposed method is more accurate than the existing analytical method, and has a better adaptability to the increase of the scale of the wind power grid. In view of the fact that the existing methods of PLF use a single balance node, it is difficult to adapt to the wind power grid connected system. In the long run, a large range of force fluctuation may be present, the idea of dynamic power flow is introduced to PLF, and a LMT-PLF calculation method with frequency regulation is studied. First, the distribution model of dynamic unbalanced power is established by combining the system frequency adjustment mode with the system frequency adjustment. Then, the method is derived from the existing analytical PLF model. The PLF calculation model considering the function of FM is given and the influence of the lack of frequency modulation capacity of the unit is taken into account. A mixed solution algorithm is proposed for the characteristics of the model. The calculation example shows that the proposed method can guarantee the power plant output in the network to fluctuate in a reasonable range according to the actual system, and effectively avoids the presence of the existing method for the emergence of the balance unit. The correctness of the LMT-PLF results is guaranteed by the case of the power limit or even the negative power. In order to solve the probability distribution model of random variables such as the assumption of wind power output in PLF current methods, the actual system is difficult to provide this contradiction. Based on the sequence operation theory, a practical calculation method of ST-PLF is proposed. First, the method is combined with PLF. The characteristic of the problem is to analyze the feasibility of the existing sequence operation theory directly applied to PLF, and then extend the existing sequence operation. Then based on the extended operation, the randomness of the system is described by extending the probability sequence and the sequence of random variables is realized based on the historical data, and the sequence of the system is corresponding to the input variables. The direct operation can quickly analyze the probability distribution of the power flow, and overcome the shortage of the existing methods on the basic data. The test shows that the proposed method can effectively realize the ST-PLF calculation under the unknown probability distribution of the system injected random quantity, and improve the feasibility of the existing methods. In the case of describing the characteristics of the random distribution of the voltage, the voltage distribution index, the deflection index and the index of maintaining the three voltage fluctuation are respectively defined based on the PLF results. Finally, the proposed method is verified with LMT-PLF as an example. The results show that the proposed index can better reflect the voltage of the wind power grid connected system from the whole and the local two aspects. Taking the test system as an example, the influence of wind electric field scale parameters, shape parameters, wind power access position and other factors on the voltage fluctuation of the power grid is analyzed in detail, which provides a reference for the rational grid connection of wind power. The static security level of the wind power grid system is quickly and effectively evaluated, and PLF is introduced to the safety assessment method, and the analytical method PLF is used as the electricity. Network state analysis means to ensure the efficiency of evaluation. From two angles of probability and risk, we define the security index based on the results of PLF and realize the quantitative evaluation of system security. Based on the component level security index, the identification method of the system weak link is given. Finally, the method is verified with ST-PLF as an example. The results show that the method is uncertain with the traditional method. Compared with the method of sex assessment, the proposed method can greatly improve the evaluation efficiency while ensuring the accuracy of the evaluation results, and can be used for reference for the safety assessment of the intermittent energy grid system.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學(北京)
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM614;TM744

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