本文選題：微電網(wǎng) + 點估計法��； 參考：《長沙理工大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著科學技術的快速發(fā)展給傳統(tǒng)的能源帶來巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。微電網(wǎng)作為智能電網(wǎng)的重要組成部分,以其接在用戶側(cè),具有成本低、電壓低及污染小等特點而開始被人們重視。微網(wǎng)可以看作是連接分布式電源與主電網(wǎng)的橋梁,這使得主電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)與微網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)可以友好地進行能量交互、協(xié)調(diào)主電網(wǎng)與分布式電源之間的矛盾,而主電網(wǎng)不必直接面臨數(shù)量眾多、類型不同、出力波動的微源的影響。但是,各種不確定變量給微電網(wǎng)優(yōu)化運行帶來巨大影響。怎么評價這些不確定性因素對微電網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟運行的影響值得深入的研究。風力、光伏出力的間歇性以及負荷的不確定性使得微電網(wǎng)潮流計算具有隨機特征,基于此,在建立不同間歇性電源出力以及負荷需求的概率密度函數(shù)的基礎上,利用點估計法處理不確定信息,然后建立了微電網(wǎng)隨機潮流的計算方法。根據(jù)分布式電源出力概率密度函數(shù)和負荷需求的概率分布構(gòu)造其估計點,將分布估計點嵌入到前推回代法中進行隨機潮流計算,得到可靠性評估數(shù)據(jù)的均值和標準差,以估計微電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)節(jié)點電壓以及支路功率的概率密度函數(shù)。通過節(jié)點電壓和支路功率的概率密度函數(shù)為微電網(wǎng)的可靠性評估分析提供良好的基礎。最后為了驗證點估計法在處理不確定性的優(yōu)越性,將蒙特卡羅抽樣模擬法用在隨機潮流的計算中,并通過實際算例證明基于點估計法的微電網(wǎng)隨機潮流計算不僅次數(shù)比蒙特卡羅法少,而且處理速度較快�；谝陨系乃悸�,該文提出利用點估計處理單位時間段負荷需求和太陽能、風能出力的不確定性問題,根據(jù)分布式電源出力的概率密度函數(shù)和負荷需求的概率分布構(gòu)造其估計點,通過估計點建立微電網(wǎng)多目標概率優(yōu)化調(diào)度模型,然后用Gram-Charlier級數(shù)展開方法得到微電網(wǎng)總運行目標函數(shù)的累計分布函數(shù)及概率分布函數(shù),為了研究負荷波動對于微電網(wǎng)優(yōu)化管理的影響,建立三種負荷水平下的微電網(wǎng)概率優(yōu)化調(diào)度模型,通過概率密度函數(shù)和累計分布函數(shù)驗證負荷波動對于微電網(wǎng)優(yōu)化運行的影響。另外,本章通過實際算例研究三估計法與兩點估計法的優(yōu)缺點,結(jié)果表明,三點估計雖然比兩點取值點多,但是它的計算速度以及計算的精度都高于兩點估計法。鑒于微電網(wǎng)概率優(yōu)化管理屬于多維度,非線性優(yōu)化問題,然后利用改進蝙蝠優(yōu)化算法進行問題求解。最后,通過算例驗證蝙蝠算法具有良好實用性和適應性,并且也驗證所提模型的實際意義。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of science and technology, traditional energy brings great challenges. As an important part of smart grid, microgrid has been paid more and more attention because of its low cost, low voltage and low pollution. Microgrid can be regarded as a bridge between distributed generation and main grid, which makes the main grid system and microgrid system can interact with each other amicably and coordinate the contradiction between main grid and distributed generation. The main power grid does not have to directly face the influence of a large number of microsources with different types and force fluctuation. However, all kinds of uncertain variables have a great impact on the optimal operation of microgrid. How to evaluate the impact of these uncertainties on the economic operation of microgrid deserves further study. The intermittency of wind, photovoltaic output and the uncertainty of load make the power flow calculation of microgrid have stochastic characteristics. Based on this, the probability density function of different intermittent power supply and load demand is established. The point estimation method is used to deal with the uncertain information, and then the calculation method of stochastic power flow for microgrid is established. According to the probability density function of distributed power generation and the probability distribution of load demand, the estimation points are constructed, and the distribution estimation points are embedded into the forward pushback method to calculate the random power flow, and the mean value and standard deviation of the reliability evaluation data are obtained. The probability density function of node voltage and branch power is estimated. The probability density function of node voltage and branch power provides a good basis for reliability evaluation and analysis of microgrid. Finally, in order to verify the superiority of point estimation method in dealing with uncertainty, Monte Carlo sampling simulation method is used in the calculation of stochastic power flow. A practical example shows that the stochastic power flow calculation based on point estimation method is less than that of Monte Carlo method, and the processing speed is faster than that of Monte Carlo method. Based on the above ideas, this paper proposes using point estimation to deal with the uncertainty of unit time load demand and solar and wind power. According to the probability density function of distributed power generation and the probability distribution of load demand, the estimation points are constructed, and the multi-objective probabilistic optimal dispatching model of microgrid is established by estimating points. Then the accumulative distribution function and probability distribution function of the total operation objective function of microgrid are obtained by using Gram-Charlier series expansion method. In order to study the influence of load fluctuation on the optimization management of microgrid, The probabilistic optimal dispatching model of microgrid under three load levels is established. The effect of load fluctuation on the optimal operation of microgrid is verified by probability density function and cumulative distribution function. In addition, the advantages and disadvantages of the three-point estimation method and the two-point estimation method are studied by practical examples. The results show that the three-point estimation method is more than the two-point estimation method, but its calculation speed and accuracy are higher than that of the two-point estimation method. Since the probability optimization management of microgrid belongs to multi-dimensional nonlinear optimization problem the improved bat optimization algorithm is used to solve the problem. Finally, an example is given to verify that the bat algorithm has good practicability and adaptability, and the practical significance of the proposed model is also verified.
【學位授予單位】：長沙理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TM73

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