本文選題：微電網(wǎng) + 負荷預(yù)測�。� 參考：《東北大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近些年,由于能源的日益緊缺,多能源微電網(wǎng)逐向全國范圍的推廣,因此多能源微電網(wǎng)的優(yōu)化運行也成為了科學研究的一個熱門研究方向。而對于多能源微電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的優(yōu)化運行而言,影響優(yōu)化結(jié)果的因素有很多,包括多能源組成單元的發(fā)電特性和對微電網(wǎng)的負荷預(yù)測和優(yōu)化算法的選擇,其中優(yōu)化算法的研究是實現(xiàn)多能源微電網(wǎng)優(yōu)化運行最重要問題之一。本論文以東北大學和國網(wǎng)遼寧省電力有限公司合作的交互智能配用電關(guān)鍵技術(shù)與系統(tǒng)裝置研發(fā)項目,以及和遼寧電能發(fā)展股份有限公司合作的風光儲交直流微電網(wǎng)電力調(diào)控系統(tǒng)研發(fā)項目為研究基礎(chǔ),以包含風力發(fā)電機、光伏電池、微型燃氣輪機、蓄熱器和蓄電池多種供能和儲能單元的微電網(wǎng)為研究目標,在環(huán)境因素所造成的供需約束均不確定的情況下,努力得到各個供能設(shè)備最優(yōu)運行方案的確定解,并通過仿真結(jié)果驗證,所得方案滿足絕大多數(shù)環(huán)境條件和系統(tǒng)運行的經(jīng)濟性要求。本文主要完成了以下幾個方面的工作：(1)通過對微電網(wǎng)各發(fā)電單元和儲能單元的特性研究,建立各設(shè)備的功能模型,為后期建立系統(tǒng)功能約束做準備。(2)對研究對象的電熱負荷數(shù)據(jù)進行整理分析,對研究對象的負荷特性進行分析,了解該研究對象的負荷特征,建立基于生產(chǎn)計劃和氣象信息的負荷特征向量和負荷預(yù)測模型。(3)研究結(jié)合灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析和多元線性回歸預(yù)測的負荷預(yù)測方法,并應(yīng)用所取得基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)進行仿真計算,以驗證所提出算法的預(yù)測精度。所得預(yù)測結(jié)果將作為多能源微電網(wǎng)的優(yōu)化運行中負荷約束部分數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)。(4)提出多能源微電網(wǎng)的整體優(yōu)化模型,建立系統(tǒng)的目標函數(shù)和供能約束條件。(5)為解決約束條件中因環(huán)境因素所造成的不確定性問題,本文提出了將灰色理論與多目標線性規(guī)劃方法相結(jié)合,提出了灰色多目標線性規(guī)劃算法,并通過仿真計算給出了多能源微電網(wǎng)的經(jīng)濟運行方案,為多能源微電網(wǎng)的優(yōu)化運行提供了新的解決方案和理論支撐。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to the increasing shortage of energy, multi-energy microgrid is popularized one by one across the country, so the optimal operation of multi-energy micro-grid has become a hot research direction of scientific research. For the optimal operation of multi-energy micro-grid system, there are many factors that affect the optimization results, including the generation characteristics of multi-energy components and the load forecasting and optimization algorithm selection of micro-grid. The research of optimization algorithm is one of the most important problems to realize the optimal operation of multi-energy micro-grid. In this paper, the key technology and system device of interactive intelligent distribution and power supply is developed by Northeast University and Liaoning Electric Power Co., Ltd. As well as the R & D project of the wind-storage AC / DC microgrid power control system in cooperation with Liaoning Electric Energy Development Co., Ltd., which includes wind turbines, photovoltaic cells, and micro gas turbines. The microgrid of heat accumulator and storage battery for various energy supply and storage units is the research goal. Under the condition that the supply and demand constraints caused by environmental factors are all uncertain, we try to obtain the definite solution of the optimal operation scheme of each energy supply equipment. The simulation results show that the proposed scheme meets most of the environmental conditions and the economic requirements of the system. The main work of this paper is as follows: 1) by studying the characteristics of each generation unit and energy storage unit in microgrid, the functional model of each equipment is established. Preparation for the later establishment of system functional constraints. (2) sorting out and analyzing the electrothermal load data of the research object, analyzing the load characteristics of the research object, and understanding the load characteristics of the research object. The load characteristic vector and load forecasting model based on production plan and meteorological information are established. The method of load forecasting combined with grey correlation analysis and multivariate linear regression forecasting is studied, and the simulation calculation is carried out using the obtained basic data. In order to verify the prediction accuracy of the proposed algorithm. The predicted results will be taken as the partial data basis of load constraint in the optimal operation of multi-energy microgrid. (4) the overall optimization model of multi-energy microgrid is proposed. In order to solve the problem of uncertainty caused by environmental factors in the constraint conditions, the grey theory is combined with the multi-objective linear programming method. A grey multi-objective linear programming algorithm is proposed, and the economic operation scheme of multi-energy microgrid is given by simulation, which provides a new solution and theoretical support for the optimal operation of multi-energy micro-grid.
【學位授予單位】：東北大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM727

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