發(fā)布時間：2018-05-04 18:03

  本文選題：風險評估 + 蒙特卡羅方法　； 參考：《華北電力大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著現(xiàn)代化電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展,電網(wǎng)運行過程的不確定性問題愈發(fā)突出,使用風險分析方法定量地評估電網(wǎng)運行中的不確定因素,并制定相應的風險控制策略,對電力系統(tǒng)的安全穩(wěn)定具有重要意義。電網(wǎng)風險評估的基本方法有解析法和蒙特卡羅法兩種,其中蒙特卡羅法的抽樣次數(shù)與系統(tǒng)規(guī)模無關(guān),適合應用于大型電網(wǎng)的風險評估,但其主要不足之處在于計算時間和計算精度的相關(guān)性,即為了獲得精度較高的可靠性指標,往往需要很長的抽樣模擬時間。鑒于風險評估系統(tǒng)實用程序中對于評估速度越來越高的要求,研究抽樣方法及其相關(guān)環(huán)節(jié)的改進以提高系統(tǒng)的計算效率,已成為一個具有一定理論意義和應用價值的研究課題。 本文首先介紹了風險評估解析法和蒙特卡羅法的主要內(nèi)容,在此基礎(chǔ)上詳細說明蒙特卡羅非序貫抽樣方法應用于電網(wǎng)風險評估的詳細步驟,以及如何建立評估所需的故障概率模型、風險指標體系等。由于蒙特卡羅法的抽樣次數(shù)與精度成反比,本文對蒙特卡羅抽樣和相關(guān)分析環(huán)節(jié)進行了改進優(yōu)化,提出了結(jié)合預想故障集的改進等分散抽樣法,使其在保持精度的條件下?lián)碛懈叩某闃有�。最�?基于Visual C#.NET平臺開發(fā)了省級電網(wǎng)風險評估軟件,實現(xiàn)了實體化系統(tǒng)算法理論的改進,最后用該省電網(wǎng)的原始數(shù)據(jù)進行了算例測試,驗證了算法的可用性和效率的提升。
[Abstract]:With the development of modern power grid, the uncertainty of power network operation is becoming more and more serious. The risk analysis method is used to quantitatively evaluate the uncertain factors in power grid operation, and the corresponding risk control strategy is formulated. It is of great significance to the safety and stability of power system. There are two basic methods for power network risk assessment: analytical method and Monte Carlo method. The sampling times of Monte Carlo method are independent of the system size, so it is suitable for the risk assessment of large power grid. But its main deficiency lies in the correlation between calculation time and calculation precision, that is, in order to obtain the reliability index with high precision, it often needs a long sampling simulation time. In view of the increasing demand for the evaluation speed in the practical program of risk assessment system, it has become a research topic with certain theoretical significance and application value to study the improvement of sampling method and its related links to improve the calculation efficiency of the system. This paper first introduces the main contents of the analytical method of risk assessment and the Monte Carlo method, and then explains the detailed steps of applying Monte Carlo non-sequential sampling method to power network risk assessment. And how to establish the fault probability model, risk index system and so on. Because the sampling times of Monte Carlo method are inversely proportional to the precision, the Monte Carlo sampling and correlation analysis are improved and optimized in this paper, and an improved equal-dispersion sampling method combined with the expected fault set is proposed. It has higher sampling efficiency under the condition of maintaining precision. Finally, the provincial power network risk assessment software is developed based on Visual C#.NET platform, which realizes the improvement of the materialized system algorithm theory. Finally, an example is tested using the original data of the provincial power grid to verify the availability and efficiency of the algorithm.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM73

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 陳文婕;劉晉;周云海;伍詠紅;王正綱;;基于等分散抽樣法的配電系統(tǒng)可靠性評估[J];陜西電力;2010年06期

2 黃江寧;郭瑞鵬;趙舫;余秀月;楊桂鐘;;基于故障集分類的電力系統(tǒng)可靠性評估方法[J];中國電機工程學報;2013年16期

，

本文編號：1844028