本文選題：條件可靠性收益 + 條件成本收益分析��； 參考：《中國電機工程學(xué)報》2014年31期

【摘要】：備用容量規(guī)劃對電力系統(tǒng)的異常狀態(tài)和極端損失情形敏感,而傳統(tǒng)的基于整體均值的可靠性成本和收益不能反映決策者對高損失 低概率事件的特別關(guān)注。將條件可靠性成本和收益的概念引入長期備用規(guī)劃問題,在決策者關(guān)心的損失范圍內(nèi)進(jìn)行條件成本收益分析,得到的條件最優(yōu)備用容量能夠反映決策者的風(fēng)險偏好和經(jīng)驗。進(jìn)行接受裕度校驗,從條件總成本的角度確認(rèn)是否接受最優(yōu)備用容量,以及接受或拒絕該方案的確信程度�；谛蜇灻商乜_模擬計算條件可靠性收益,進(jìn)而求解模型。對IEEE-RTS79的算例分析表明:決策者的風(fēng)險偏好對備用容量的規(guī)劃有顯著影響,隨著關(guān)注的損失范圍由整體平均轉(zhuǎn)向極端不利,系統(tǒng)對備用容量的需求持續(xù)上升。
[Abstract]:Standby capacity planning is sensitive to the abnormal state and extreme loss of power system, but the traditional reliability cost and income based on the overall mean can not reflect the special concern of decision makers on high loss and low probability events. The concept of conditional reliability cost and benefit is introduced into the long-term reserve planning problem, and the conditional cost-benefit analysis is carried out within the range of loss concerned by the decision maker. The optimal reserve capacity can reflect the risk preference and experience of the decision maker. An acceptance margin check is performed to confirm whether the optimal standby capacity is accepted from the point of view of the total conditional cost and the degree of confidence that the scheme is accepted or rejected. Based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation, the conditional reliability income is calculated, and then the model is solved. The case study of IEEE-RTS79 shows that the risk preference of decision makers has a significant impact on the reserve capacity planning. With the loss range changing from the overall average to the extreme disadvantage, the system demand for reserve capacity continues to rise.
【作者單位】： 西安交通大學(xué)電氣工程學(xué)院;中國電力科學(xué)研究院;廣州供電局有限公司;
【基金】：國家863高技術(shù)基金項目(2011AA05A103) 國家電網(wǎng)公司“千人計劃”專項支持項目~~
【分類號】：TM732

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本文編號：1835731