本文選題：健康指數 + 故障概率��； 參考：《華北電力大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：研究基于設備安全性與經濟性的狀態(tài)評價模型,并依據風險評估模型計算單臺設備風險值,為開展變電設備狀態(tài)檢修提供科學依據,為電網運行提供輔助決策信息。針對變電設備因制造工藝、科技水平、運行損耗及超期服役等影響因素而產生的安全隱患,制定狀態(tài)檢修策略；其中的狀態(tài)評價模型、風險評估模型綜合考慮安全、可靠性、環(huán)境、成本等要素可規(guī)避此類安全隱患,提高供電可靠性與運維經濟性。 狀態(tài)評價對影響設備健康狀態(tài)的各類工況數據以及設備可靠性的定量分析,按照預定的量化標準對各類數據進行分析,并求解設備當前及未來的健康指數、故障發(fā)生概率。狀態(tài)評價可為設備資產的更換、維修、技術改造以及新設備規(guī)劃等決策提供科學的指導依據,其主要作用在于輔助資產的可靠性管理、設備檢修維護資源的合理安排及投資規(guī)劃。 風險評估分析設備故障發(fā)生概率和故障后果的處理情況,從電網性能、修復成本、人身安全、環(huán)境影響等方面計算電力企業(yè)所關心的各種風險值。風險評估不局限于對設備可靠性、檢修資源的管理,還上升到電網風險管理的高度,為企業(yè)的資產管理和長遠投資規(guī)劃提供決策依據。 實例分析表明,經狀態(tài)評價與風險評估后的狀態(tài)檢修方法可量化設備健康指數、故障概率及風險值,指導變電設備的更換、改造、運行與檢修試驗等工作,具有工程應用價值。
[Abstract]:The state evaluation model based on equipment safety and economy is studied, and the risk value of a single equipment is calculated according to the risk assessment model, which provides a scientific basis for carrying out condition maintenance of substation equipment and provides auxiliary decision information for power grid operation. In view of the hidden trouble caused by the factors such as manufacturing technology, scientific and technological level, operation loss and extended service, the strategy of condition-based maintenance is formulated, in which the state evaluation model and risk assessment model consider safety and reliability comprehensively. Environment, cost and other factors can avoid such safety risks, and improve the reliability of power supply and operation and maintenance economy. Based on the quantitative analysis of all kinds of working condition data and equipment reliability which affect the equipment's health state, the data are analyzed according to the predetermined quantization standard, and the current and future health index of the equipment and the probability of failure are solved. State evaluation can provide scientific guidance for equipment assets replacement, maintenance, technical transformation and new equipment planning, and its main role is to assist the reliability management of assets. Reasonable arrangement and investment planning of equipment maintenance resources. The risk assessment analyzes the probability of equipment failure and the treatment of fault consequences, and calculates the various risk values concerned by electric power enterprises from the aspects of power network performance, repair cost, personal safety, environmental impact and so on. Risk assessment is not limited to the management of equipment reliability and maintenance resources, but also rises to the height of grid risk management, which provides the decision basis for enterprise's asset management and long-term investment planning. The analysis of examples shows that the condition based maintenance method after condition evaluation and risk assessment can quantify equipment health index, failure probability and risk value, guide the replacement, transformation, operation and maintenance test of substation equipment, and have engineering application value.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM73

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前6條

1 趙旭;邵惠鶴;;On-line Batch Process Monitoring and Diagnosing Based on Fisher Discriminant Analysis[J];Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University(Science);2006年03期

2 胡靜濤;徐皚冬;于海斌;;CBM標準化研究現(xiàn)狀及發(fā)展趨勢[J];儀器儀表學報;2007年03期

3 孫輝,李衛(wèi)東,孫啟忠;判決樹方法用于變壓器故障診斷的研究[J];中國電機工程學報;2001年02期

4 尚勇,閆春江,嚴璋,曹俊嶺;基于信息融合的大型油浸電力變壓器故障診斷[J];中國電機工程學報;2002年07期

5 王楠,律方成,劉云鵬,李和明;基于粗糙集理論與模糊Petri網絡的油浸電力變壓器綜合故障診斷[J];中國電機工程學報;2003年12期

6 余紹峰;胡文堂;陳金法;何文林;孫翔;;輸變電設備風險評估與維修決策[J];浙江電力;2009年03期

，

本文編號：1795275