本文選題：間歇性電源　切入點：容量可信度　出處：《華中科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)前人類社會所面臨的環(huán)境問題和能源危機日益嚴(yán)重。隨著國家政策對清潔能源的有效激勵和新能源技術(shù)的日益成熟,中國豐富的風(fēng)能和太陽能資源逐漸得到開發(fā),風(fēng)電及光伏發(fā)電裝機容量近年來持續(xù)增長。風(fēng)電和光伏發(fā)電具有資源豐富、清潔可再生等優(yōu)點,但受自然條件的影響,風(fēng)力發(fā)電和光伏發(fā)電出力都具有隨機性的特點,屬于不可控的間歇性電源,并網(wǎng)后對電力系統(tǒng)的可靠性貢獻與傳統(tǒng)發(fā)電形式不同。容量可信度是衡量間歇性電源對電力系統(tǒng)可靠性貢獻的重要指標(biāo),是在保持發(fā)電系統(tǒng)可靠性水平一致的情況下,間歇性電源所替代的常規(guī)機組的裝機容量�？陀^地評估大規(guī)模間歇性電源的容量可信度才能更加準(zhǔn)確地評價間歇性電源的對電力系統(tǒng)可靠性影響及其綜合經(jīng)濟效益,對并網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的長期電源規(guī)劃具有重大意義。本文首先介紹了風(fēng)電和光伏發(fā)電等間歇性電源的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及容量可信度的基本概念,重點說明了當(dāng)前風(fēng)電及光伏容量可信度的評估標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和計算方法及電力系統(tǒng)可靠性計算方法,明確了本文的研究內(nèi)容。其次,本文基于Copula函數(shù)提出了考慮出力相關(guān)性的多風(fēng)電場的容量可信度評估方法。在對實際風(fēng)電場進行出力相關(guān)性分析的基礎(chǔ)上,采用Clayton Copula函數(shù)描述空間相鄰的風(fēng)電場的出力相關(guān)性,構(gòu)建多風(fēng)電場出力的聯(lián)合概率分布模型,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出多風(fēng)電場的容量可信度評估方法。再次,本文提出了考慮光伏出力特點及其與負(fù)荷相關(guān)關(guān)系的光伏發(fā)電容量可信度評估方法。分析了光伏日出力的小時特點,對光伏電站出力和負(fù)荷曲線進行時段分解,對應(yīng)時段結(jié)合形成等效負(fù)荷曲線計算含光伏電站的系統(tǒng)可靠性水平,提出了光伏發(fā)電約束可信容量的概念,建立了光伏發(fā)電容量可信度評估模型。最后,本文將間歇性電源容量可信度的計算應(yīng)用到評估風(fēng)電-光伏發(fā)電聯(lián)合系統(tǒng)的綜合效益中。分析了風(fēng)電和光伏發(fā)電兩種間歇性電源出力的互補特性,基于Frank Copula函數(shù)建立了風(fēng)光系統(tǒng)的出力聯(lián)合概率分布,對風(fēng)光聯(lián)合系統(tǒng)的容量可信度進行了評估。以間歇性電源的電量效益、環(huán)境效益和容量效益為基礎(chǔ)構(gòu)建了風(fēng)光聯(lián)合系統(tǒng)的綜合效益評估模型。
[Abstract]:At present, the environmental problems and energy crisis facing human society are becoming more and more serious.With the effective incentives of national policies to clean energy and the maturation of new energy technologies, China's abundant wind and solar resources have been gradually developed, and the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation has been increasing in recent years.Wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation have the advantages of rich resources, clean and renewable, but under the influence of natural conditions, wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation have the characteristics of randomicity, which is an uncontrollable intermittent power supply.The reliability contribution to power system after grid connection is different from that of traditional power generation.Capacity reliability is an important index to measure the contribution of intermittent power supply to power system reliability. It is the installed capacity of conventional units replaced by intermittent power supply under the condition of keeping the same level of power system reliability.Only by objectively evaluating the capacity reliability of large-scale intermittent power supply can we evaluate more accurately the impact of intermittent power supply on the reliability of power system and its comprehensive economic benefits, which is of great significance to the long-term power planning of grid-connected power system.This paper first introduces the development of intermittent power supply, such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and the basic concept of capacity reliability. The emphasis is put on the evaluation standard and calculation method of wind power and photovoltaic capacity reliability, as well as the reliability calculation method of power system.The research content of this paper is clarified.Secondly, based on the Copula function, a capacity reliability evaluation method for multi-wind farms considering force correlation is proposed.On the basis of the correlation analysis of the actual wind farm, the Clayton Copula function is used to describe the correlation of the wind farm with adjacent space, and the joint probability distribution model of the multi-wind farm output is constructed.On this basis, a capacity reliability evaluation method for multi-wind farms is proposed.Thirdly, this paper proposes a method to evaluate the reliability of photovoltaic generation capacity considering the characteristics of photovoltaic output and its relationship with load.The hourly characteristics of photovoltaic sunrise force are analyzed, and the output and load curves of photovoltaic power station are decomposed in the time period. The reliability level of the system with photovoltaic power station is calculated by combining the equivalent load curve with the corresponding time period.In this paper, the concept of constrained trusted capacity of photovoltaic power generation is proposed, and the reliability evaluation model of photovoltaic power generation capacity is established.Finally, the reliability calculation of intermittent power supply capacity is applied to evaluate the comprehensive benefit of wind and photovoltaic power generation system.The complementary characteristics of wind power and photovoltaic power supply are analyzed. Based on the Frank Copula function, the joint probability distribution of wind system is established, and the reliability of the wind system is evaluated.Based on the power efficiency, environmental benefit and capacity benefit of intermittent power supply, a comprehensive benefit evaluation model of wind and wind joint system is established.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TM61

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 栗然;申雪;鐘超;楊天;;考慮環(huán)境效益的分布式電源多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃[J];電網(wǎng)技術(shù);2014年06期

2 王趙賓;;中國光伏電站發(fā)展報告[J];能源;2014年04期

3 季峰;蔡興國;王俊;;基于混合Copula函數(shù)的風(fēng)電功率相關(guān)性分析[J];電力系統(tǒng)自動化;2014年02期

4 王秀麗;武澤辰;曲，

本文編號：1712372