本文選題：流域　切入點(diǎn)：梯級　出處：《中南大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：摘要：流域梯級水電工程項(xiàng)目在流域發(fā)電、防洪、灌溉、供水、航運(yùn)、旅游、養(yǎng)殖等方面產(chǎn)生重要的社會效益和綜合效益。流域梯級水電開發(fā)過程投入資金多、建設(shè)規(guī)模大、時(shí)間跨度長、影響范圍廣,對整個(gè)項(xiàng)目周期的決策工作有嚴(yán)格的要求。因此,充分積累流域項(xiàng)目開發(fā)經(jīng)驗(yàn),不斷提高項(xiàng)目開發(fā)的決策水平和管理能力,是新時(shí)期我國實(shí)現(xiàn)流域社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)、生態(tài)環(huán)境可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵因素。項(xiàng)目后評價(jià)旨在總結(jié)工程開發(fā)過程的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn),是提高項(xiàng)目科學(xué)決策能力、增加工程開發(fā)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的重要途徑。但是,當(dāng)前缺乏從流域開發(fā)的角度對水電工程群的建設(shè)工作進(jìn)行后評價(jià)理論和方法研究。針對該問題,論文在對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究進(jìn)行綜述的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合流域水電開發(fā)的現(xiàn)實(shí)特征,梳理了流域水電工程后評價(jià)的基本理論和作用機(jī)制,然后由點(diǎn)及線,首先從水電項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)過程、發(fā)展目標(biāo)、社會和生態(tài)環(huán)境影響四個(gè)方面,研究了流域水電開發(fā)的基本組成單元——單項(xiàng)水電工程后評價(jià)的指標(biāo)體系和評價(jià)方法；其次,從梯級電站整體的效益視角,闡述了流域水電開發(fā)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和開發(fā)時(shí)序后評價(jià)的理論框架和評價(jià)模型；最后,結(jié)合以上的研究成果,以沅水流域水電開發(fā)項(xiàng)目為對象進(jìn)行后評價(jià)實(shí)證分析,驗(yàn)證相關(guān)理論的科學(xué)性和方法的有效性。論文研究工作如下。 (1)梳理流域水電開發(fā)后評價(jià)的理論體系和作用機(jī)制。提出系統(tǒng)控制論和可持續(xù)發(fā)展的項(xiàng)目評價(jià)理論是流域水電工程后評價(jià)的兩個(gè)基本理論,前者把整個(gè)項(xiàng)目管理視為一個(gè)系統(tǒng),項(xiàng)目后評價(jià)是項(xiàng)目管理系統(tǒng)中重要的控制系統(tǒng)。后者要求項(xiàng)目建設(shè)要有利于可持續(xù)發(fā)展的目標(biāo),充分考慮經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會、生態(tài)環(huán)境的影響,達(dá)到?jīng)Q策目標(biāo)的最大綜合效益；構(gòu)建水電項(xiàng)目后評價(jià)機(jī)制設(shè)計(jì)的基本原則,分析了項(xiàng)目后評價(jià)的監(jiān)督控制作用,剖析了適合我國流域梯級水電工程項(xiàng)目的后評價(jià)三級管理機(jī)構(gòu)體系管理和運(yùn)行機(jī)制,設(shè)計(jì)了適合流域梯級水電工程項(xiàng)目的反饋流程圖,其目的是通過理論分析,使后評價(jià)的成果能順利地反饋到?jīng)Q策、設(shè)計(jì)、建設(shè)和運(yùn)營單位,為項(xiàng)目的決策及建設(shè)起到控制作用和借鑒意義。 (2)流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目單項(xiàng)后評價(jià)理論和方法。從流域單項(xiàng)水電工程的建設(shè)過程、整體目標(biāo)以及對社會、自然環(huán)境的影響四個(gè)維度進(jìn)行后評價(jià)研究,對于具有動態(tài)控制作用的建設(shè)過程后評價(jià),結(jié)合實(shí)際工程建設(shè)過程后評價(jià)控制作用,探討了單項(xiàng)水電工程具有動態(tài)控制作用后評價(jià)的內(nèi)容和評價(jià)方法,并建立了后評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系；對于目標(biāo)可持續(xù)后評價(jià),梳理了流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目可持續(xù)性的研究范圍、內(nèi)涵、定義以及特征,提出了流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)可持續(xù)后評價(jià)的概念以及基本內(nèi)容,從而構(gòu)建指標(biāo)評價(jià)體系；對于和諧發(fā)展觀的社會影響評價(jià),分析了其基本內(nèi)容,并構(gòu)建了指標(biāo)體系,另外詳細(xì)分析了項(xiàng)目與社會的適應(yīng)性以及移民安置后評價(jià)等內(nèi)容；對環(huán)境影響后評價(jià)研究中,構(gòu)建了流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目生態(tài)環(huán)境的后評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,建立了生態(tài)環(huán)境影響后評價(jià)的物元—層次分析耦合模型。 (3)流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)效益后評價(jià)理論和方法。從國民經(jīng)濟(jì)后評價(jià)和財(cái)務(wù)后評價(jià)兩個(gè)方面,深入探究了流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目總體經(jīng)濟(jì)效益內(nèi)容、指標(biāo)體系。針對流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目補(bǔ)償效益的現(xiàn)實(shí),將梯級補(bǔ)償效益指標(biāo)引入了總體經(jīng)濟(jì)后評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系中,詳細(xì)探討了流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目補(bǔ)償效益機(jī)理以及指標(biāo)計(jì)算方法,并從三種分?jǐn)偡绞饺胧?深入剖析了流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目效益補(bǔ)償分?jǐn)倖栴},給出三種分?jǐn)偡绞降挠?jì)算方法；研究了基于DEA模型的流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目總體經(jīng)濟(jì)效益后評價(jià),構(gòu)建了流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目總體經(jīng)濟(jì)效益后評價(jià)的“靜態(tài)分析—綜合評價(jià)”的理論框架,建立了評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,提出了流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目總體經(jīng)濟(jì)后評價(jià)DEA模型。 (4)流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目開發(fā)時(shí)序后評價(jià)理論和方法�；仡櫫耸澜缌饔蜷_發(fā)的基本方式,針對我國“流域、梯級、滾動、綜合”開發(fā)的方針,運(yùn)用結(jié)構(gòu)模型解析(ISM)技術(shù),分析出了流域梯級水電開發(fā)時(shí)序后評價(jià)的關(guān)鍵因素,探討了小型、大中型流域開發(fā)利用的管理模式。闡述了模糊優(yōu)選模型建模的基本理論,提出了基于模糊優(yōu)選模型進(jìn)行流域梯級水電開發(fā)時(shí)序后評價(jià)的模型。 (5)沅水流域開發(fā)項(xiàng)目后評價(jià)實(shí)證分析。簡述了沅水流域水電開發(fā)基本情況；運(yùn)用層次分析法結(jié)合專家打分方式,對沅水流域梯級水電工程過程進(jìn)行后評價(jià)；在定性分析沅水水電工程的可持續(xù)影響因素基礎(chǔ)上,評價(jià)了該工程目標(biāo)可持續(xù)性；全面分析了沅水流域梯級水電開發(fā)社會環(huán)境影響因素；評價(jià)了該工程在發(fā)電、航運(yùn)以及防洪對受益區(qū)的影響情況,并分析了該工程移民安置的情況；運(yùn)用物元—層次分析模糊模型進(jìn)行了沅水流域水電工程環(huán)境影響后評價(jià)；以“靜態(tài)分析—綜合評價(jià)”的兩階段評價(jià)的方式,運(yùn)用DEA模型評價(jià)了梯級水電開發(fā)的總體經(jīng)濟(jì)效益；運(yùn)用模糊優(yōu)選模型,計(jì)算出該工程理想開發(fā)時(shí)序,結(jié)合工程實(shí)際開發(fā)情況,進(jìn)行沅水流域梯級水電開發(fā)時(shí)序后評價(jià)。全面總結(jié)沅水流域梯級水電工程開發(fā)的主要結(jié)論,提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。 論文通過對流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目后評價(jià)研究,探索了流域水電開發(fā)后評價(jià)的理論體系和作用機(jī)制,剖析了水電項(xiàng)目單項(xiàng)后評價(jià)的指標(biāo)指標(biāo)和評價(jià)方法,建立了流域梯級水電開發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響和開發(fā)時(shí)序后評價(jià)的基本理論和評價(jià)模型,實(shí)證評價(jià)了沅水流域開發(fā)項(xiàng)目。論文的研究工作對流域梯級水電項(xiàng)目后評價(jià)相關(guān)理論和應(yīng)用研究起到了積極的推動作用。
[Abstract]:Abstract: cascade hydropower projects in the river basin flood control, power generation, irrigation, water supply, shipping, tourism, have important social benefits and comprehensive benefits of breeding. The hydropower development process of capital investment, large construction scale, long time span, wide range of influence, for the entire project cycle decision work strictly the requirements. Therefore, the accumulation of full basin project development experience, and constantly improve the project decision-making level and management ability, is the new period of China's social economy, realize the watershed, key factors of sustainable development of the ecological environment. To sum up experiences and lessons of the development process of engineering project post evaluation, is to improve the decision-making ability of science project, an important way to increase project development experience. However, the current lack of research on the theory and method of evaluation of Hydropower Engineering Group construction work from the watershed development perspective to solve this problem, The paper on the related research at home and abroad, combined with the practical characteristics of hydropower development, combing the basic theory and mechanism of basin hydropower project post evaluation, and then from the point and the line, first from the construction process of hydropower projects, development goals, social and environmental effects in four aspects of indicators system and evaluation method of single hydropower project post evaluation: basic unit of hydropower development; secondly, from the perspective of the overall benefit of the cascade hydropower stations, the theoretical framework and evaluation and expounds the economic development timing valley hydropower development evaluation model; finally, combining with the above research results, analysis in Yuanshui River Basin Hydropower Development project as the object of empirical evaluation, validation of scientific theory and method. The research work is as follows.
(1) the theory of the system and mechanism of combing river basin hydropower development evaluation. Put forward the theory of sustainable development system and control evaluation theory are two basic theory of basin hydropower project post evaluation, the whole project management as a system, project post evaluation is an important control system of project management system. The latter requires the project construction should be conducive to the goal of sustainable development, to fully consider the economic, social, ecological and environmental impact, the maximum comprehensive benefit to the decision goal; basic principles of evaluation mechanism design construction of hydropower project, analysis the function of supervision and control of project post evaluation, analyzes the evaluation of three level management institutions management system and operation mechanism suitable for China's hydropower project, designed for the feedback flow chart of cascade hydropower project, its purpose is through theoretical analysis, the The results of the evaluation can be successfully fed back to the decision-making, design, construction and operation units, which can play a control role and use for reference for the decision and construction of the project.
(2) the theory and method of monomial evaluation after the cascade hydropower project in the basin. From the construction process of single basin hydropower project, the overall objectives and the society, of the four dimensions of the post evaluation of the influence of natural environment, evaluation for construction process with dynamic control effect after the combination of the actual construction process post evaluation on control effect the content and evaluation methods of single hydropower project with dynamic control effect evaluation, and the establishment of the post evaluation index system for evaluation; the goal of sustainable, combing the research scope, the sustainability of cascade hydropower project connotation, definition and characteristics, put forward the concept of cascade hydropower project target basin sustainable post evaluation and basic content. In order to construct the evaluation index system; evaluation for the harmonious development of the society of view, analyzes its basic contents, and constructs the index system, in addition A detailed analysis of the project and the social adaptability and post resettlement evaluation and so on; the environmental impact assessment study, the evaluation index system of ecological environment construction of cascade hydropower project in the basin, the establishment of the ecological environment impact assessment of matter element analytic model.
(3) the theory and method of economic benefit of basin cascade hydropower project post evaluation. The two aspects of the evaluation from the national economy and finance, the in-depth study of the overall economic benefit of hydropower project in the basin, the index system. According to the compensation benefits of cascade hydropower project reality, will introduce the overall index of cascade compensation benefits of economic evaluation in the index system, discusses the calculation method of compensation benefits of cascade hydropower project and the index mechanism of river basin, and starting from the three allocation methods, in-depth analysis of the cascade hydropower project benefit compensation allocation problem, three kinds of methods to calculate the allocation; studied the evaluation based on the overall economic benefits of cascade hydropower project in DEA model after and build the overall economic benefits of cascade hydropower project after the watershed assessment framework "static analysis comprehensive evaluation, established evaluation indices The DEA model is proposed for the overall economic post evaluation of cascade hydropower projects in the basin.
(4) the theory and method of basin cascade hydropower project development timing evaluation. A review of the basic mode of development in our country in the world, "river, cascade, rolling, integrated development approach, analytic structural model (ISM) technology, analyzes the key factors of the cascade hydropower development timing evaluation, study the small, the management mode of development and utilization of large and medium sized basin. Expounds the basic theory of fuzzy optimization model, put forward the evaluation based on fuzzy optimization model of cascade hydropower development timing model.
(5) the empirical analysis and evaluation of Yuanshui river basin development project. The basic situation of hydropower development in Yuanshui River Basin; using AHP and expert scoring method of cascade hydropower project in Yuanshui River process post evaluation; qualitative analysis in the shadow of sustainable Yuanshui hydropower project on the basis of the influencing factors, the goal of the project sustainability evaluation; comprehensive analysis of the Yuanshui river basin hydropower development in the social environment factors; evaluation of the project in power generation, shipping and flood control effect on benefit area, and analyzes the project resettlement; AHP fuzzy model of hydropower project environmental impact evaluation of Yuanshui river basin after matter element; the two stage static analysis comprehensive evaluation "evaluation method, we use DEA model to evaluate the overall economic benefits of hydropower development; using the fuzzy optimization model, The ideal development timing of the project is calculated. Combined with the actual development of the project, post evaluation of cascade hydropower development in Yuanshui basin is carried out. The main conclusions of cascade hydropower development in Yuanshui basin are summarized, and corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.
The study on Evaluation of cascade hydropower project, exploring the theoretical system and the mechanism of river basin hydropower development evaluation, analysis of the hydropower project after the evaluation index of individual indicators and evaluation methods, established the basic theory and evaluation of cascade hydropower development and economic development impact timing evaluation model, empirical evaluation of the Yuanshui river river basin development project. The research work related theory and application research has played a positive role in promoting the cascade hydropower project post evaluation.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV51;F426.91;F426.61

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