發(fā)布時間：2018-03-14 20:08

  本文選題：評價(jià)　切入點(diǎn)：微電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃　出處：《燕山大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：微電網(wǎng)作為解決分布式電源(distributed generation,DG)大量集成接入對電力系統(tǒng)沖擊的有力手段,具有清潔環(huán)保等優(yōu)勢和廣闊的發(fā)展前景,是我國電力系統(tǒng)未來的發(fā)展趨勢之一。微電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃作為微電網(wǎng)建設(shè)的前提,其規(guī)劃方案的好壞直接影響微電網(wǎng)的安全、可靠、經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)保等多項(xiàng)運(yùn)行指標(biāo),而且隨著微電網(wǎng)滲透率的不斷增加,會對大電網(wǎng)的穩(wěn)定可靠運(yùn)行帶來巨大的影響。因此,在微電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃工作完成后,通過微電網(wǎng)評價(jià)研究,對規(guī)劃方案進(jìn)行一個綜合評估就顯得尤為重要。本文建立了微電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了基于改進(jìn)模糊綜合評價(jià)方法的微電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃綜合評價(jià)模型和基于情景分析理論的微網(wǎng)規(guī)劃動態(tài)評價(jià)模型。主要工作內(nèi)容如下:首先,針對現(xiàn)存微網(wǎng)規(guī)劃指標(biāo)體系研究的缺陷,提出了針對微電網(wǎng)自身特性的網(wǎng)架結(jié)構(gòu)指標(biāo),其中包括線路效用經(jīng)濟(jì)比、負(fù)荷電源位置匹配度、供電線路長度越線率、重要負(fù)荷供電可靠度以及電源選型選址匹配度指標(biāo),并且在此基礎(chǔ)上梳理以往微網(wǎng)規(guī)劃評價(jià)指標(biāo),建立了微網(wǎng)規(guī)劃綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。其次,利用格羅布斯準(zhǔn)則與博弈論原理對模糊綜合評價(jià)方法進(jìn)行了改進(jìn)。使用格羅布斯準(zhǔn)則對隸屬參數(shù)中的偏差數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行剔除,再利用博弈論原理對剩余的有效隸屬參數(shù)進(jìn)行融合。進(jìn)一步利用改進(jìn)的模糊綜合評價(jià)方法建立了微網(wǎng)規(guī)劃模糊綜合評價(jià)模型,對三個微網(wǎng)規(guī)劃方案進(jìn)行評價(jià),通過評價(jià)結(jié)果的對比,分析了三個方案的優(yōu)劣。最后,建立了基于情景分析理論的微網(wǎng)規(guī)劃動態(tài)評價(jià)模型,選取地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)超預(yù)期發(fā)展、國家將采用新能源政策及微電網(wǎng)內(nèi)部技術(shù)進(jìn)步為三個影響因素,建立未來有可能發(fā)生的多個場景,并且在不同場景中對微電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃方案進(jìn)行評價(jià)。仿真結(jié)果表明該模型可以考慮到未來不確定因素對微電網(wǎng)的影響,避免了只考慮當(dāng)下利益需求而忽視長遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展的綜合效益,是微電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃動態(tài)評價(jià)的有效方法。
[Abstract]:As a powerful means to solve the impact of distributed generation distributed generation (DG) on power system, microgrid has the advantages of clean and environmental protection, and has broad development prospects. Microgrid planning, as the premise of microgrid construction, has a direct impact on the safety, reliability, economy and environmental protection of microgrid. And with the increasing permeability of microgrid, it will have a great impact on the stable and reliable operation of large power grid. Therefore, after the completion of microgrid planning, the research on microgrid evaluation is carried out. It is very important to make a comprehensive evaluation of the planning scheme. In this paper, the evaluation index system of microgrid planning is established. On this basis, the comprehensive evaluation model of microgrid planning based on improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the dynamic evaluation model of micro-grid planning based on scenario analysis theory are proposed. The main work is as follows: first, In view of the shortcomings of the existing research on the index system of microgrid planning, the paper puts forward the grid structure index aiming at the characteristics of the microgrid, including line utility economy ratio, load power supply position matching degree, power supply line length crossing line rate, etc. The reliability of important load power supply and the matching index of power selection and location selection are analyzed. Based on these indexes, a comprehensive evaluation index system of microgrid planning is established. Secondly, a comprehensive evaluation index system of microgrid planning is established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is improved by using Gro Booth criterion and game theory principle, and the deviation data of membership parameters are eliminated by Gro Booth criterion. Then the remaining effective membership parameters are fused by the game theory principle, and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of microgrid planning is established by using the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the three microgrid planning schemes are evaluated. Through the comparison of the evaluation results, the advantages and disadvantages of the three schemes are analyzed. Finally, a dynamic evaluation model of microgrid planning based on scenario analysis theory is established. The country will adopt the new energy policy and the technological progress within the microgrid as three influencing factors to establish a number of scenarios that may happen in the future. The simulation results show that the model can take into account the influence of future uncertain factors on microgrid and avoid considering the comprehensive benefits of long-term development. It is an effective method for dynamic evaluation of microgrid planning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：燕山大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TM715

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本文編號：1612716