本文選題：增強(qiáng)態(tài)勢(shì)感知　切入點(diǎn)：安全性綜合評(píng)估　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：態(tài)勢(shì)感知是提高電網(wǎng)自愈(Self-healing)功能和抗擾能力(Robustness)的關(guān)鍵。隨著大規(guī)模連鎖停電事故頻繁發(fā)生和大規(guī)模風(fēng)電的接入，安全性評(píng)估作為態(tài)勢(shì)感知的核心分析工具面臨著諸多挑戰(zhàn)。本文以安全域方法學(xué)的研究成果為基礎(chǔ)，圍繞面向增強(qiáng)態(tài)勢(shì)感知的輸電系統(tǒng)安全性綜合評(píng)估展開(kāi)了研究。 首先，研究了在注入功率空間上保證含雙饋風(fēng)機(jī)(DFIG)電力系統(tǒng)暫態(tài)穩(wěn)定性的動(dòng)態(tài)安全域(以下簡(jiǎn)稱含DFIG的動(dòng)態(tài)安全域)。通過(guò)大量暫態(tài)穩(wěn)定仿真發(fā)現(xiàn)，在工程關(guān)心的范圍內(nèi)，含DFIG的動(dòng)態(tài)安全域的邊界仍可用一個(gè)或少數(shù)幾個(gè)超平面表達(dá)式近似表示，其精度可滿足工程實(shí)際需要。該研究結(jié)果使安全域方法的優(yōu)越性在風(fēng)電接入后的安全性監(jiān)視與分析中進(jìn)一步凸顯，使其可作為面向增強(qiáng)態(tài)勢(shì)感知的安全性監(jiān)視、評(píng)估與控制的強(qiáng)有力的工具。 其次，給出了安全轉(zhuǎn)移概率的解析計(jì)算方法，證實(shí)了安全轉(zhuǎn)移概率的有效性。基于超平面形式的安全域邊界的表達(dá)式將安全轉(zhuǎn)移概率計(jì)算中涉及的復(fù)雜體積分極大程度地簡(jiǎn)化，結(jié)合以半不變量為基礎(chǔ)的級(jí)數(shù)展開(kāi)法加以計(jì)算。該解析計(jì)算方法保證計(jì)算精度的同時(shí)，，計(jì)算速度快，為在安全性分析中計(jì)及風(fēng)電和負(fù)荷等引起的節(jié)點(diǎn)注入不確定性提供了有效途徑。同時(shí)指出所確定的安全轉(zhuǎn)移概率不僅是最終的概率的靜態(tài)和動(dòng)態(tài)安全性綜合評(píng)估的馬爾可夫模型狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移概率矩陣元素的重要成分，而且它本身就可作為評(píng)估系統(tǒng)安全性的有效指標(biāo)，輔助運(yùn)行人員監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)以提前做好預(yù)防措施。 再次，提出一個(gè)快速形成馬爾可夫模型狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移概率矩陣的方法�；谠顟B(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移率矩陣和系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)數(shù)組提出快速計(jì)算狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移率的方法，并歸納出系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移概率矩陣中非零元素的分布規(guī)律，進(jìn)而快速實(shí)現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移概率矩陣的稀疏存儲(chǔ)。對(duì)于兩狀態(tài)元件組成的系統(tǒng)，可基于給定的系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)排序和服務(wù)狀態(tài)集數(shù)組進(jìn)一步提高計(jì)算效率。該方法的計(jì)算速度與應(yīng)用規(guī)模均優(yōu)于現(xiàn)有方法，為運(yùn)用馬爾可夫模型分析電網(wǎng)等大規(guī)模系統(tǒng)提供了有利工具。 最后，完善了二層系統(tǒng)模型以計(jì)及風(fēng)電的接入，以此為基礎(chǔ)通過(guò)安全域和馬爾可夫模型建立了概率的靜態(tài)和動(dòng)態(tài)安全性綜合評(píng)估。模型計(jì)及了網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)錉顟B(tài)間的轉(zhuǎn)移、系統(tǒng)的可再生能力、風(fēng)電和負(fù)荷的不確定性、靜態(tài)和動(dòng)態(tài)安全性約束，以及天氣和自然災(zāi)害等因素的影響，通過(guò)求解一組線性向量微分方程獲得“到不安全時(shí)間”及其概率分布實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)系統(tǒng)未來(lái)狀態(tài)的有效估計(jì)并估算出可用于采取措施的時(shí)間。制定了有效的模型求解方案，首次將該模型成功應(yīng)用于復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)，推進(jìn)了模型的實(shí)用化進(jìn)程。算例結(jié)果顯示，由于整合了諸多影響電網(wǎng)安全的因素，模型給出了更符合實(shí)際的評(píng)估結(jié)果，可用于評(píng)估干擾因素對(duì)系統(tǒng)安全性的影響，輔助運(yùn)行人員進(jìn)行決策，為增強(qiáng)態(tài)勢(shì)感知提供了有效的預(yù)測(cè)分析工具。
[Abstract]:Situation awareness (Self-healing) is to improve the self-healing function and anti disturbance ability (Robustness) key. With the large scale blackout occurred frequently and large-scale wind power access, safety assessment as the core of situation awareness analysis tool is facing many challenges. The results of this study to the security region methodology based on oriented enhancement comprehensive evaluation of transmission system security situation awareness is studied.
First of all, on the guarantee containing DFIG in power injection space (DFIG) dynamic security region of power system transient stability (hereinafter referred to as dynamic security domain containing DFIG). Through a large number of transient stability simulation results show that in the range of engineering is concerned, the dynamic security region of DFIG containing one or the boundary is still available a few hyperplanes approximate expression that the accuracy can meet the actual needs of the project. The results of this study. The advantages of the security region method in wind power safety monitoring and analysis of access after further highlighted, which can be used as for enhanced security surveillance situation perception, a powerful tool to assess and control.
Secondly, given the analytical method for calculating security transition probability, confirmed the validity of the safe transfer probability. The expression boundary hyperplane forms based on the safe transfer of simplified probability calculation of complex volume relates to the great extent, combined with the series with a semi invariant based expansion method to calculate the analytical calculation method. To ensure the accuracy and calculation speed, which provides an effective way for nodes with wind power and load analysis in safety into uncertainty. The safe transfer probability is not only an important component of the final state Markov model the probability of static and dynamic security assessment of transtion-probablity matrix elements at the same time points out, and it itself can be used as an effective index to evaluate the security of the system, the auxiliary operation personnel monitoring system to advance the prevention measures. Shi.
Again, put forward a method of rapid formation of Markov model state transtion-probablity matrix element. The state transition rate matrix and system state array fast calculation method proposed based on state transfer rate, and summed up the system state transition probability matrix of nonzero elements in the distribution rule, and then quickly realize the sparse storage system state transtion-probablity matrix. For the two state system components, system state sort and service status based on the given set of array to further improve computational efficiency. The calculation speed and scale of application the method is superior to the existing methods, providing a favorable tool for using the Markov model analysis of power grid and other large-scale systems.
Finally, to improve the two layer system model to account and access of wind power, on the basis of the security domain and Markov model to establish the probability of static and dynamic security assessment model. And the transfer network topology between the system of renewable capacity, wind power and load uncertainty, static and dynamic security constraints, influence factors and weather and natural disasters, "to secure time" and its probability distribution can effectively estimate the future status of the system and estimate can be used to take measures in time by solving a set of linear vector differential equations has been developed. The effective solving scheme of the model for the first time, this model is successful applied to the complex system, promote the practicability of the model. The simulation results show that the influence factors of integrated network security model, gives a more realistic assessment. It can be used to assess the impact of interference factors on the security of the system, assist the operators to make decisions, and provide an effective prediction and analysis tool for the enhancement of situational awareness.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM72

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