本文選題：城市中低壓配電網　切入點：負荷預測　出處：《湖南大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：城市中低壓配網規(guī)劃是城市經濟和社會發(fā)展的重要組成部分，其對于保證建設工程的技術合理性、提高社會效益和電力企業(yè)的經濟效益有著重要意義。在早期的建設中,由于缺少資金的投入，我國城市中低壓配網建設相對緩慢，滯后于城市的發(fā)展速度，而且中低壓配網的建設改造沒有進行科學的規(guī)劃，基本是跟隨用戶的需求建設的。這些歷史原因造成了目前中低壓配電網存在著結構不合理、設備容量不足、供電可靠性低、自動化程度不高等問題，，嚴重影響了城市的發(fā)展和人民生活質量的提高。隨著負荷的不斷增長，這些問題將于加嚴重。因此進行城市中低壓配電網規(guī)劃及改造建設勢在必行。本文以Y市城市中低壓配電網為例展開如下研究： 首先，在對規(guī)劃的基礎工作—負荷預測策略的研究中，提出了一種等維灰色—ELM神經網絡負荷預測方法。該方法結合了等維灰色算法和一種新型神經網絡（ELM神經網絡）的優(yōu)點，將等維灰色模型的預測值和影響負荷的主要因素作為ELM神經網絡的輸入，同時考慮了負荷的時間延續(xù)性和相關因素對負荷的非線性影響。算例表明該方法提高了預測的精度，用于中長期負荷預測是可行的。 然后，研究了制定規(guī)劃改建方案的兩種策略：第一，針對城市中低壓配電網問題多而投資資金有限的問題，提出了基于AHP的改建次序的策略。通過建立中壓線路各指標改建緊急度的數學模型和AHP判斷矩陣，計算出線路的改建緊急度，然后以計劃資金為約束，按線路改建緊急度的大小確定優(yōu)先改建的線路組合，此方法提高了配網現狀問題解決次序決策的科學性。第二，研究了制定優(yōu)化改建方案的策略，對于規(guī)劃方案的制定具有指導意義。 接著，根據Y市中低壓配網現狀存在問題和前文提出的規(guī)劃策略，提出了Y市的中低壓配電網規(guī)劃方案。最后，對規(guī)劃方案進行了評估，結果表明各項技術指標都達到了預期的目標，從而檢驗了研究成果的工程實用性；同時對Y市配電網下一步的建設與發(fā)展提出了建設性的意見，這將有助于規(guī)劃成果的順利落實和Y市城市配電網建設管理水平的近一步提高。 全文對城市中低壓配電網規(guī)劃的策略進行了研究與實踐應用，其思路和成果可為其它城市的中低壓配網規(guī)劃提供借鑒與案例參考。
[Abstract]:Urban low-voltage distribution network planning is an important part of urban economic and social development. It is of great significance to ensure the technical rationality of construction projects, improve social benefits and economic benefits of electric power enterprises. Due to the lack of capital investment, the construction of medium and low voltage distribution network in our country is relatively slow, which lags behind the speed of urban development, and the construction and transformation of medium and low voltage distribution network has not been scientifically planned. These historical reasons lead to unreasonable structure, insufficient capacity of equipment, low reliability of power supply, low degree of automation and so on. Has seriously affected the development of the city and the improvement of the quality of life of the people. These problems will be serious. Therefore, it is imperative to plan and rebuild the medium and low voltage distribution network. This paper takes Y City as an example to carry out the following research:. First of all, in the study of the basic working-load forecasting strategy of planning, a load forecasting method of equal dimension gray ELM neural network is proposed, which combines the advantages of equal dimension grey algorithm and a new neural network (ELM neural network). The prediction value of the equal dimensional grey model and the main factors affecting the load are taken as the input of the ELM neural network, and the time continuity of the load and the nonlinear influence of the related factors on the load are considered. An example shows that the method improves the accuracy of the forecasting. It is feasible to apply it to medium and long term load forecasting. Then, two strategies of planning and rebuilding are studied. First, the problem of medium and low voltage distribution network and limited investment funds are discussed. The strategy of reconstruction sequence based on AHP is put forward. By establishing mathematical model of rebuilding emergency degree of each index of medium voltage line and AHP judgement matrix, the reconstruction emergency degree of line is calculated, and then the planned funds are taken as constraint. The priority line combination is determined according to the emergency degree of line reconstruction. This method improves the scientific decision of solving the problem of distribution network status. Secondly, the strategy of optimizing reconstruction scheme is studied. For the planning of the formulation of a guiding significance. Then, according to the problems existing in the current situation of the medium and low voltage distribution network in Y city and the planning strategy put forward in this paper, the planning scheme of the medium and low voltage distribution network in Y city is put forward. Finally, the planning scheme is evaluated. The results show that all the technical indexes have reached the expected goal, thus testing the engineering practicability of the research results, and at the same time putting forward constructive suggestions on the next construction and development of the distribution network in Y city. This will contribute to the smooth implementation of the planning results and the further improvement of the construction and management level of Y city distribution network. This paper studies and applies the strategy of medium and low voltage distribution network planning in cities, and its ideas and achievements can be used for reference and case reference for other cities' middle and low voltage distribution network planning.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM715

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