本文選題：智能電網(wǎng)　切入點(diǎn)：電力預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著智能電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展和節(jié)能減排要求的提高,清潔能源發(fā)電比重正不斷提高。風(fēng)力發(fā)電和太陽能發(fā)電具有發(fā)電隨機(jī)性強(qiáng)、可調(diào)節(jié)能力弱,地域性強(qiáng)、集中度高等特點(diǎn),提高我國電網(wǎng)對(duì)清潔能源接入的適應(yīng)性,尋求技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益最優(yōu)的解決策略,加強(qiáng)智能電網(wǎng)建設(shè)被認(rèn)為是解決風(fēng)電和光電上網(wǎng)問題的關(guān)鍵。 本文提出的智能電網(wǎng)中多種發(fā)電模式聯(lián)合調(diào)度模型及效益評(píng)價(jià)研究,通過分析清潔能源發(fā)電的必要性、智能電網(wǎng)的要求、大規(guī)模清潔能源發(fā)電并網(wǎng)的優(yōu)勢(shì)和問題,提出清潔能源和傳統(tǒng)能源等多種發(fā)電模式聯(lián)合調(diào)度的方式,對(duì)于我國節(jié)能減排目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)、電網(wǎng)安全穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行、電網(wǎng)和發(fā)電企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的提高具有積極的作用。 在大量數(shù)據(jù)資料分析整理的基礎(chǔ)上,系統(tǒng)分析我國電源結(jié)構(gòu)與電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及面臨的問題,研究智能電網(wǎng)的提出對(duì)電源和電網(wǎng)的影響,同時(shí)對(duì)本文主要研究的幾種發(fā)電模式,如火力發(fā)電、風(fēng)力發(fā)電、太陽能光伏發(fā)電等,進(jìn)行技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)比分析,為電力預(yù)測(cè)、聯(lián)合調(diào)度及效益評(píng)價(jià)做鋪墊；針對(duì)風(fēng)力發(fā)電和太陽能光伏發(fā)電不穩(wěn)定性的特點(diǎn),分別提出了服務(wù)于聯(lián)合調(diào)度的基于GABP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行風(fēng)電輸出功率的預(yù)測(cè),服務(wù)于聯(lián)合調(diào)度基于擬境知識(shí)挖掘的自適應(yīng)神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行光伏發(fā)電輸出功率的預(yù)測(cè),最后提出了服務(wù)于聯(lián)合調(diào)度基于FHNN相似日聚類的組合預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行智能電網(wǎng)電力負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)研究；根據(jù)我國節(jié)能減排的要求,結(jié)合風(fēng)火電聯(lián)合運(yùn)營的特點(diǎn),建立了智能電網(wǎng)中風(fēng)火電聯(lián)合運(yùn)營節(jié)能減排調(diào)度模型,提出了基于KKT和量子遺傳算法的多目標(biāo)決策智能算法進(jìn)行模型的求解；根據(jù)風(fēng)力發(fā)電和太陽能光伏發(fā)電的特點(diǎn),探討風(fēng)光互補(bǔ)混合供電系統(tǒng)模式,建立了風(fēng)光互補(bǔ)智能調(diào)度模型,提出了改進(jìn)的混沌免疫遺傳算法進(jìn)行模型的求解；綜合分析火力發(fā)電、風(fēng)力發(fā)電和太陽能光伏發(fā)電的特點(diǎn),建立了一套火、風(fēng)、光聯(lián)合運(yùn)營的電力調(diào)度模型,提出了改進(jìn)的量子粒子群優(yōu)化算法進(jìn)行調(diào)度模型的求解；綜合考慮智能電網(wǎng)中混合電力系統(tǒng)聯(lián)合調(diào)度的特點(diǎn),從社會(huì)效益、環(huán)境效益、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益、安全性等幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行綜合分析,建立了效益評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,提出了基于Vague集和D-S證據(jù)理論的效益評(píng)價(jià)模型,進(jìn)行智能電網(wǎng)中多種發(fā)電模式聯(lián)合調(diào)度效益評(píng)價(jià)；針對(duì)以上提出的預(yù)測(cè)模型、調(diào)度模型和效益評(píng)價(jià)模型,分別進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析和驗(yàn)證。多種發(fā)電模式聯(lián)合調(diào)度符合我國智能電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展方向,有利于達(dá)到節(jié)能減排的效果,通過系統(tǒng)深入的分析,針對(duì)目前我國多種發(fā)電模式聯(lián)合調(diào)度管理中存在的問題,提出了相應(yīng)的管理方案和建議。 本文的電力預(yù)測(cè)模型、調(diào)度模型和效益評(píng)價(jià)模型,對(duì)我國智能電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展、多種發(fā)電模式聯(lián)合調(diào)度管理具有理論與實(shí)踐指導(dǎo)借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:With the development of smart grid and the improvement of energy saving and emission reduction requirements, the proportion of clean energy generation is increasing. Wind power generation and solar power generation have the characteristics of strong randomness of power generation, weak adjustable ability, strong regional and high concentration. To improve the adaptability of China's power grid to clean energy access, to seek the best technical and economic solution strategy, and to strengthen the construction of smart grid is considered to be the key to solve the problem of wind power and optoelectronic access. Based on the analysis of the necessity of clean energy generation, the requirements of smart grid, the advantages and problems of large-scale clean energy generation and grid connection, the combined dispatching model and benefit evaluation of multiple generation modes in smart grid are proposed in this paper. This paper puts forward the combined dispatching mode of various power generation modes such as clean energy and traditional energy, which plays a positive role in the realization of energy saving and emission reduction goal, the safe and stable operation of power grid, and the improvement of economic benefits of power grid and power generation enterprises. Based on the analysis and arrangement of a large amount of data, the development status and problems of power supply structure and power grid in China are systematically analyzed, and the influence of smart grid on power supply and power grid is studied. At the same time, several power generation modes studied in this paper, such as thermal power generation, wind power generation, solar photovoltaic power generation, etc., are compared and analyzed technologically and economically, which can pave the way for electric power prediction, joint dispatch and benefit evaluation. According to the characteristics of instability of wind power generation and solar photovoltaic power generation, a prediction model based on GABP neural network for joint dispatch is proposed to predict the output power of wind power. It is used to predict the output power of photovoltaic power generation based on adaptive neural network prediction model based on quasi-environment knowledge mining. Finally, a combined forecasting model based on FHNN similar daily clustering for joint dispatch is proposed to forecast the power load of smart grid. According to the requirements of energy saving and emission reduction in China, combined with the characteristics of wind and thermal power combined operation, The energy saving and emission reduction scheduling model of apoplectic thermal power joint operation in smart grid is established, and the multi-objective decision-making intelligent algorithm based on KKT and quantum genetic algorithm is proposed to solve the model, which is based on the characteristics of wind power generation and solar photovoltaic power generation. In this paper, the model of hybrid power supply system with wind and wind is discussed, and the intelligent dispatching model of wind power is established, and the improved chaos immune genetic algorithm is proposed to solve the model, and the characteristics of thermal power generation, wind power generation and solar photovoltaic power generation are analyzed synthetically. In this paper, a set of fire, wind and light power dispatching models are established, and an improved quantum particle swarm optimization (QPSO) algorithm is proposed to solve the scheduling model. The environmental benefit, economic benefit and safety are analyzed synthetically, the benefit evaluation index system is established, and the benefit evaluation model based on Vague set and D-S evidence theory is put forward. In view of the forecasting model, dispatching model and benefit evaluation model proposed above, the evaluation of joint dispatch benefit of multiple generation modes in smart grid is carried out. The combined dispatching of multiple power generation modes is in line with the development direction of smart grid in China, which is conducive to achieving the effect of energy saving and emission reduction. Aiming at the problems existing in the joint dispatch management of various power generation modes in our country, the corresponding management schemes and suggestions are put forward. The power forecasting model, dispatching model and benefit evaluation model of this paper have theoretical and practical guidance significance for the development of smart grid in China and the joint dispatching management of multiple generation modes.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61;TM73

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