本文關(guān)鍵詞： 間歇式能源 相關(guān)性 Copula-ARMA 蒙特卡洛模擬 置信容量　出處：《東南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來,隨著全球變暖和化石燃料的衰竭,風(fēng)、光等間歇式可再生能源在替代傳統(tǒng)能源方面起到了重要作用。然而,間歇式能源具有易變、不穩(wěn)定的特性,它們的大量接入會(huì)給電力系統(tǒng)的可靠性帶來不同于常規(guī)機(jī)組的影響,這就需要對(duì)間歇式能源可帶來的容量效益即置信容量進(jìn)行評(píng)估。此外,隨著間歇式能源滲透率逐漸增高,如果僅僅考慮單個(gè)間歇式能源場(chǎng)站的置信容量實(shí)際意義不大,而應(yīng)綜合考慮各間歇式能源電源出力的相關(guān)性,研究廣域區(qū)間內(nèi)多個(gè)間歇式能源的協(xié)調(diào)運(yùn)作集中并入電網(wǎng)的綜合置信容量。針對(duì)目前電網(wǎng)中間歇式能源大規(guī)模投入的現(xiàn)狀,本文提出一種可以計(jì)及間歇式能源相關(guān)性的置信容量評(píng)估方法。提出計(jì)及相關(guān)性的多風(fēng)電場(chǎng)聯(lián)合出力模型。該模型綜合考慮風(fēng)速、尾流效應(yīng)、風(fēng)電裝換等因素。在對(duì)風(fēng)速進(jìn)行建模時(shí),首先利用Copula多元分布模型,獲取多個(gè)風(fēng)速序列間的空間相關(guān)特性,進(jìn)而利用ARMA模型構(gòu)建單一風(fēng)速序列的時(shí)間相依特性,最后,擷取ARMA模型的時(shí)序特性和Copula分布模型的空間相依特性,構(gòu)建Copula-ARMA多元時(shí)序風(fēng)速模型。提出計(jì)及相關(guān)性的風(fēng)電場(chǎng)光伏電站聯(lián)合出力模型。模型綜合考慮了風(fēng)速、光輻射強(qiáng)度、溫度等客觀環(huán)境因素,同時(shí)計(jì)及兩種間歇式能源發(fā)電技術(shù)的能量轉(zhuǎn)換關(guān)系�？紤]到光伏電站的晝夜特性,分別建立晝間和夜間的風(fēng)電場(chǎng)光伏電站聯(lián)合出力模型。晝間模型采用與多元風(fēng)速類似的Copula-ARMA多元時(shí)序風(fēng)速-光輻射強(qiáng)度序列模型,夜間考慮到光伏電站的出力近似為零,只對(duì)風(fēng)速序列采用ARMA模型。提出間歇式能源可靠性及置信容量評(píng)估模型。該模型首先采用時(shí)序Monte Carlo模擬法評(píng)估含間歇式能源的系統(tǒng)可靠性,進(jìn)而利用弦截法評(píng)估間歇式能源的置信容量,最后通過IEEE-RBTS測(cè)試系統(tǒng)算例,分析多種不確定因素對(duì)間歇式能源置信容量的影響。結(jié)果表明：提出的計(jì)及相關(guān)性的間歇式能源出力模型可直接用于間歇式能源綜合置信容量評(píng)估,間歇式能源的出力模型、出力間的相關(guān)性以及容量配置方式等對(duì)間歇式能源的綜合置信容量有不可忽略的影響。評(píng)估結(jié)果可為含大規(guī)模間歇式能源的聯(lián)合發(fā)電系統(tǒng)的規(guī)劃與發(fā)展提供直接可靠的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with global warming and fossil fuel depletion, intermittent renewable energy sources, such as wind and light, have played an important role in replacing conventional energy sources. Their large number of connections will have a different impact on the reliability of power systems than conventional units, which requires an assessment of the capacity benefits that intermittent energy can bring, that is, confidence capacity. Moreover, as intermittent energy permeability increases, If it is of little practical significance to consider only the confidence capacity of a single intermittent energy station, the correlation of the output of each intermittent energy source should be considered synthetically. This paper studies the integrated confidence capacity of the coordinated operation of multiple intermittent energy sources in the wide area region. In view of the current situation of large-scale investment of intermittent energy sources in the power grid, In this paper, a confidence capacity evaluation method which can take into account the intermission energy correlation is proposed. A multi-wind farm combined force model considering the correlation is proposed. The wind speed and wake effect are taken into account in the model. When modeling wind speed, we first use the Copula multivariate distribution model to obtain the spatial correlation characteristics of multiple wind speed series, and then use ARMA model to construct the time-dependent characteristics of a single wind speed series. Based on the temporal characteristics of ARMA model and spatial dependence of Copula distribution model, the multivariate time-series wind speed model of Copula-ARMA is constructed. A wind farm photovoltaic power generation model considering the correlation is proposed. The wind speed and light radiation intensity are taken into account in the model. Objective environmental factors such as temperature, taking into account the energy conversion relationship between the two intermittent energy generation technologies, and considering the circadian characteristics of photovoltaic power plants, The diurnal and nocturnal wind farm photovoltaic power generation models are established respectively. The diurnal model adopts the Copula-ARMA multivariate time-series wind speed series model similar to the multivariate wind speed, and considers that the output force of the photovoltaic power station is approximately zero at night. The ARMA model is used only for wind speed series, and an intermittent energy reliability and confidence capacity evaluation model is proposed. Firstly, the time-series Monte Carlo simulation method is used to evaluate the reliability of the system with intermittent energy. Then the confidence capacity of intermittent energy is evaluated by using the chord truncation method. Finally, the IEEE-RBTS test system is used to calculate the confidence capacity. The influence of many uncertain factors on the confidence capacity of intermittent energy is analyzed. The results show that the proposed model can be directly used in the evaluation of the comprehensive confidence capacity of intermittent energy and the output model of intermittent energy. The correlation between the output forces and the capacity allocation mode can not be ignored on the comprehensive confidence capacity of intermittent energy. The evaluation results can provide a direct and reliable basis for the planning and development of the combined power generation system with large-scale intermittent energy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TM61

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本文編號(hào)：1550919