本文關(guān)鍵詞： 配電網(wǎng) 故障停電風(fēng)險 風(fēng)險指標(biāo)體系 故障率 分塊技術(shù)　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近幾年來國內(nèi)外的大面積停電事件發(fā)生較為頻繁，最接近的有2012年7月的印度大停電事件，以及2013年6月5日我國上海市的故障停電事件和2008年南方冰災(zāi)導(dǎo)致的大面積停電事件，這些停電事件的共同點(diǎn)就是都給地方電力系統(tǒng)尤其是配電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)帶來較大的破壞。據(jù)統(tǒng)計80%的電網(wǎng)故障都是由配電網(wǎng)故障引起的，尤其是城市配電網(wǎng)的故障停電會給城市帶來不可估量的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會損失，因此，保障配電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的安全、可靠、經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行是電力企業(yè)義不容辭的責(zé)任，本文研究城市配電網(wǎng)故障停電風(fēng)險也具有重大的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 第一部分，從我國配電網(wǎng)風(fēng)險研究與西方發(fā)達(dá)國家的差距及國內(nèi)外大停電事件的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)方面闡述配電網(wǎng)風(fēng)險評估的背景；闡述了配電網(wǎng)故障停電風(fēng)險的研究意義。通過查閱文獻(xiàn)了解風(fēng)險評估理論在配電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的研究現(xiàn)狀，對風(fēng)險、風(fēng)險評估的定義，配電網(wǎng)故障停電風(fēng)險的定義和內(nèi)容進(jìn)行介紹。同時還對配電網(wǎng)的風(fēng)險評估和可靠性評估的關(guān)系進(jìn)行說明。 第二部分，對配電網(wǎng)故障停電風(fēng)險的定義和影響因素進(jìn)行分析。根據(jù)導(dǎo)致故障停電的內(nèi)部原因，從故障停電概率和故障停電損失兩方面建立了配電網(wǎng)故障停電風(fēng)險評估指標(biāo)體系。最后根據(jù)所建立的故障停電風(fēng)險評估指標(biāo)體系以及風(fēng)險的定義建立了配電網(wǎng)故障停電風(fēng)險評估模型。 第三部分，建立故障停電概率估算模型，首先建立了基于雙態(tài)天氣條件下的元件故障率模型，其次，，提出基于饋線分區(qū)思想的配電網(wǎng)故障停電概率估算方法，運(yùn)用元件故障率求出各個分塊的故障率，然后以分塊故障率為基礎(chǔ)計算各個負(fù)荷點(diǎn)的故障停電概率。建立故障停電損失估算模型，提出了基于分塊技術(shù)的停電損失估算模型，配電網(wǎng)故障停電損失包括用戶故障停電損失和供電企業(yè)故障停電損失，將電費(fèi)收入損失和設(shè)備檢修費(fèi)用匯總分?jǐn)偟礁鱾�負(fù)荷點(diǎn)上，從而計算出整個配電網(wǎng)的故障停電損失。 第四部分，對配電網(wǎng)故障停電風(fēng)險進(jìn)行評估。以IEEE-RBTS母線2配電系統(tǒng)中饋線F1、F2組成的子系統(tǒng)為研究對象進(jìn)行故障停電風(fēng)險評估算例分析，根據(jù)各個負(fù)荷點(diǎn)故障停電概率和故障停電損失的高低進(jìn)行停電風(fēng)險分類分析。
[Abstract]:In recent years, large-scale power outages have occurred more frequently both at home and abroad, the closest being the Indian blackout in July 2012. As well as the power outages in Shanghai on June 5th 2013 and large-scale blackouts caused by ice disasters in southern China on 2008, The common denominator of these blackouts is that they all cause greater damage to the local power system, especially the distribution network system. According to statistics, 80% of the power grid failures are caused by distribution network failures. In particular, the failure of urban distribution network will bring incalculable economic and social losses to the city. Therefore, it is the unshirkable responsibility of electric power enterprises to ensure the safety, reliability and economic operation of distribution network system. It is also of great practical significance to study the risk of power failure in urban distribution network. The first part expounds the background of distribution network risk assessment from the gap between China's distribution network risk research and western developed countries and the experience and lessons of power outages at home and abroad. This paper expounds the significance of research on the risk of distribution network fault outage, through consulting the literature to understand the research status of risk assessment theory in distribution network system, the definition of risk and risk assessment, The definition and content of distribution network failure risk are introduced, and the relationship between distribution network risk assessment and reliability assessment is also explained. In the second part, the definition and influence factors of power failure risk in distribution network are analyzed. The evaluation index system of distribution network fault blackout risk is established from two aspects of fault blackout probability and failure loss. Finally, according to the established risk evaluation index system and the definition of risk, the distribution network fault risk evaluation index system is established. Risk assessment model of barrier power failure. In the third part, the probability estimation model of fault outage is established. Firstly, the failure rate model of components based on the condition of double state weather is established. Secondly, the method of estimating the probability of power failure in distribution network based on the idea of feeder partition is proposed. The failure rate of each block is calculated by using the failure rate of components, and then the probability of failure at each load point is calculated based on the failure rate of each block. A model for estimating the loss of power failure is established, and a model for estimating the loss of power failure based on block technology is proposed. The power failure loss of distribution network includes customer failure loss and power supply enterprise fault failure loss. The loss of electricity revenue and equipment maintenance cost are divided into each load point to calculate the power failure loss of the whole distribution network. In the 4th part, the risk of power failure in distribution network is evaluated. The subsystem of feeder F _ 1 / F _ 2 in IEEE-RBTS busbar 2 distribution system is taken as the research object to evaluate the risk of fault outage. The blackout risk is classified and analyzed according to the probability of failure and the loss of failure at each load point.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM73

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