發(fā)布時間：2018-02-16 11:50

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 電源結(jié)構(gòu) 學(xué)習(xí)曲線 CO_2減排 碳稅　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟的增長,能源在社會發(fā)展中顯得愈發(fā)重要。世界經(jīng)濟持續(xù)發(fā)展,在能源需求的快速增長下,不可避免的伴隨著一些其他的難題,比如能源供給短缺�；茉吹倪^度消耗導(dǎo)致更多的溫室氣體排放,已經(jīng)造成氣候與環(huán)境產(chǎn)生了巨大改變,對人們生存、國民經(jīng)濟的低碳發(fā)展造成了重大威脅,減少以CO_2為主的溫室氣體排放從而緩解氣候變暖已成為世界各國的共同追求。電力作為中國最重要的二次能源,是造成CO_2大量排放的主要原因。2012年,火力發(fā)電裝機容量占總?cè)萘康?1.60%,水力、核能和新能源發(fā)電分別占比21.77%、1.12%和5.51%�？梢钥闯�,中國現(xiàn)有電力系統(tǒng)能源結(jié)構(gòu)不但對電力的可持續(xù)性發(fā)展有害,還會導(dǎo)致惡劣的環(huán)境損害問題。因此,開發(fā)并促進(jìn)新能源的發(fā)展、維護(hù)我國能源安全是非常重要的。本文在中國電源結(jié)構(gòu)的基礎(chǔ)上,搜集相關(guān)發(fā)電成本和排放數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建了中國電力系統(tǒng)能源模型和可再生能源發(fā)電成本學(xué)習(xí)曲線模型。中國電力系統(tǒng)能源模型在滿足能源需求以及碳排放約束的基礎(chǔ)上,以總發(fā)電成本最小化來優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu)�？稍偕茉磳W(xué)習(xí)曲線模型旨在通過學(xué)習(xí)曲線模擬新能源發(fā)電成本隨著政策變化和技術(shù)進(jìn)步的變化情況。文章設(shè)定多個情景,探索中國未來電源結(jié)構(gòu)和減排潛力。結(jié)果顯示,在基準(zhǔn)情景下,從2010年至2040年,燃煤發(fā)電始終是我國未來主要發(fā)電形式,水力發(fā)電次之。CO_2減排目標(biāo)的制定和碳稅政策的實施都將促使我國電源結(jié)構(gòu)逐漸從碳含量高的化石燃料發(fā)電向碳含量低的化石燃料發(fā)電和新能源發(fā)電轉(zhuǎn)變。減排目標(biāo)設(shè)定情景里,IGCC技術(shù)、帶碳捕捉的IGCC技術(shù)、SC技術(shù)和USC技術(shù)加快了其擴散速度,但是在碳稅政策里,太陽能和風(fēng)能發(fā)電技術(shù)發(fā)展的更好。在頁巖氣、清潔發(fā)電技術(shù)的學(xué)習(xí)曲線應(yīng)用情景里,這兩種技術(shù)分別都得到了更好的發(fā)展。毫無意外,所有的政策實施均會導(dǎo)致總成本的增加。在前期,CO_2減排目標(biāo)更加有效,但在后期,隨著碳稅政策更加成熟,碳稅政策會更加有效。因此政府可以根據(jù)發(fā)展需求選擇不同的政策,從而促進(jìn)新能源和新技術(shù)的發(fā)展,減少CO_2的排放。
[Abstract]:As the economy grows, energy becomes more and more important in social development. The sustained development of the world economy, with the rapid growth of energy demand, inevitably accompanies some other difficult problems. For example, the shortage of energy supply. The excessive consumption of fossil energy has led to more greenhouse gas emissions, which has caused tremendous changes in climate and environment, and posed a major threat to the survival of people and the low-carbon development of the national economy. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions based on CO_2 to mitigate global warming has become the common pursuit of all countries in the world. As the most important secondary energy in China, electricity is the main reason for the large amount of CO_2 emissions. In 2012, The installed capacity of thermal power generation accounts for 71.60% of the total capacity. The proportion of water power, nuclear energy and new energy power generation is 21.771.12% and 5.51% respectively. It can be seen that the energy structure of China's existing power system is not only harmful to the sustainable development of electricity, Therefore, it is very important to develop and promote the development of new energy and maintain the energy security of our country. The energy model of Chinese power system and the learning curve model of renewable energy generation cost are constructed. The energy model of China power system is based on meeting the energy demand and carbon emission constraints. The learning curve model of renewable energy aims to simulate the change of new energy generation cost with the change of policy and technology. Explore the future power supply structure and emission reduction potential of China. The results show that from 2010 to 2040, coal-fired power generation has always been the main form of power generation in China from 2010 to 2040. The formulation of emission reduction target and the implementation of carbon tax policy will promote the transformation of power supply structure from fossil fuel power generation with high carbon content to fossil fuel power generation with low carbon content and new energy generation. IGCC technology in the setting scenario, IGCC technology with carbon capture, SC technology and USC technology accelerate their diffusion rate, but solar and wind power generation technologies develop better in carbon tax policy. In shale gas, clean power generation technology learning curve application scenario, The two technologies are both better developed. No surprise, all policies will lead to higher total costs. In the early stages, the COSP 2 emission reduction target will be more effective, but later, as the carbon tax policy becomes more mature, The carbon tax policy will be more effective. Therefore, the government can choose different policies according to the development needs, thus promoting the development of new energy and technology and reducing CO_2 emissions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X322;F426.61

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