本文關(guān)鍵詞： 電力設(shè)備 質(zhì)量狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià) 預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著電網(wǎng)規(guī)模的逐漸增大以及電壓等級(jí)的升高，電力系統(tǒng)的安全可靠運(yùn)行也變得越來越重要，對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的設(shè)備質(zhì)量要求也越來越高。電力設(shè)備質(zhì)量狀態(tài)的評(píng)價(jià)是確定設(shè)備健康程度的技術(shù)方法，可以及時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)設(shè)備的潛在性故障，提高電力設(shè)備運(yùn)行的穩(wěn)定性和安全性，也可以科學(xué)指導(dǎo)電網(wǎng)公司設(shè)備運(yùn)行、維護(hù)及檢修工作的開展，提高設(shè)備的運(yùn)行效率以及生產(chǎn)效益。本文重點(diǎn)研究了電力設(shè)備質(zhì)量評(píng)價(jià)問題和設(shè)計(jì)了設(shè)備質(zhì)量評(píng)價(jià)軟件，也對(duì)電力設(shè)備的質(zhì)量狀態(tài)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)分析。 本文首先分析了現(xiàn)階段設(shè)備質(zhì)量狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)相關(guān)的研究現(xiàn)狀和發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，再結(jié)合我國(guó)電力設(shè)備管理的實(shí)際情況，提出了研究的技術(shù)路線。 其次對(duì)電力設(shè)備的運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析，找出影響電力設(shè)備運(yùn)行工作狀態(tài)的相關(guān)參量，確定評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)因素，建立隸屬函數(shù)。在對(duì)設(shè)備評(píng)價(jià)的相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行研究的基礎(chǔ)上，建立了電力設(shè)備質(zhì)量狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)模型。評(píng)價(jià)模型由評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)、評(píng)價(jià)流程、評(píng)價(jià)等級(jí)以及評(píng)價(jià)方法組成。設(shè)計(jì)了評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)權(quán)重的確定方法，將模糊層次分析法應(yīng)用于電力設(shè)備質(zhì)量狀態(tài)的評(píng)價(jià)中，制定了電力設(shè)備質(zhì)量狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)的流程及評(píng)價(jià)等級(jí)，，并以一個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)實(shí)例來說明評(píng)價(jià)模型的應(yīng)用。并設(shè)計(jì)了基于該評(píng)價(jià)模型的軟件，介紹了評(píng)價(jià)系統(tǒng)的各個(gè)功能模塊以及數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)的設(shè)計(jì)。 最后，針對(duì)設(shè)備質(zhì)量狀態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)只是得到電力設(shè)備當(dāng)前質(zhì)量狀態(tài)的問題，進(jìn)一步分析和使用灰色理論來對(duì)電力設(shè)備的質(zhì)量狀態(tài)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，從而形成電力設(shè)備的狀態(tài)趨勢(shì)分析，達(dá)到真正掌握電力設(shè)備的質(zhì)量狀況和進(jìn)行科學(xué)管理的目的。并進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)效果的驗(yàn)證。
[Abstract]:With the increasing of power network scale and voltage level, the safe and reliable operation of power system becomes more and more important. The evaluation of power equipment quality is a technical method to determine the equipment health, which can discover the potential fault of the equipment in time, and improve the stability and safety of the power equipment operation. It can also be used to guide the equipment operation, maintenance and maintenance of the power grid company, improve the efficiency of the equipment operation and improve the efficiency of the production. This paper focuses on the quality evaluation of power equipment and designs the equipment quality evaluation software. The quality state of power equipment is also predicted and analyzed. This paper first analyzes the current research status and development trend of equipment quality status evaluation, and then puts forward the technical route of the research combined with the actual situation of power equipment management in China. Secondly, it analyzes the operation data of power equipment, finds out the relevant parameters that affect the operation state of power equipment, determines the evaluation index factors, establishes the membership function. On the basis of the research on the relevant theory of equipment evaluation, The evaluation model of power equipment quality condition is established. The evaluation model is composed of evaluation index, evaluation process, evaluation grade and evaluation method. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is applied to the evaluation of power equipment quality, and the flow chart and evaluation grade of power equipment quality state evaluation are established. The application of the evaluation model is illustrated by an evaluation example, and the software based on the evaluation model is designed, and the design of each function module and database of the evaluation system is introduced. Finally, in view of the problem that the evaluation of equipment quality status is only to get the current quality state of power equipment, further analysis and use of grey theory to predict the quality state of power equipment, so as to form the state trend analysis of power equipment. The purpose of mastering the quality of electric power equipment and carrying out scientific management is achieved, and the prediction effect is verified.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM732

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