本文關(guān)鍵詞： 電力市場分析 需求預(yù)測 預(yù)測方法　出處：《北京郵電大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：當前,我國電力市場在總體結(jié)構(gòu)上分三個層次,即國家、區(qū)域、省(市),但省(市)級電力市場是我國電力運營基礎(chǔ)核心層次。長期以來,由于受到各種相關(guān)因素的制約,省級電網(wǎng)公司營銷部門對于電力市場的分析和預(yù)測往往從總體宏觀角度開展,在售電方面多以各售電類別的總量展開分析和預(yù)測,而負荷方面則多以調(diào)度的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)進行分析和預(yù)測。隨著經(jīng)濟社會的發(fā)展進步,市場變化越來越復雜,這種粗獷化的分析模式已逐漸不能跟上市場發(fā)展變化的腳步,成為制約電網(wǎng)公司營銷水平提高的難題和瓶頸之一。如何更科學認識和分析電力市場,深入了解市場變化趨勢,準確把握市場未來發(fā)展方向,以及如何遵循市場經(jīng)濟的基本規(guī)律和電力工業(yè)生產(chǎn)的特殊規(guī)律、進行企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營和市場競爭決策的新課題,這需要我們將現(xiàn)代科學管理理論方法和市場經(jīng)濟的基本規(guī)律有機結(jié)合,建立一套更適應(yīng)我國省級電網(wǎng)電力市場的分析和預(yù)測方法體系。 本文對湖北省整個售電市場進行了全面的分析和解讀。從宏觀-全社會、中觀---行業(yè)(用戶群)、微觀---用電大客戶這三個層次的進行分析研究,并就他們的未來的發(fā)展趨勢進行了預(yù)測。基于大量的客戶用電數(shù)據(jù),分析挖掘不同類型用電大客戶群體的劃分、發(fā)展變化特性、主要影響因素以及結(jié)合影響因素進行分類預(yù)測,研究電力市場的構(gòu)成和特點,對電力市場進行進一步細化。在此基礎(chǔ)上,分別采用統(tǒng)計分析法、比較分析法、結(jié)構(gòu)分析法、集中度分析法、階梯式經(jīng)濟活動分析法、指數(shù)平滑、相關(guān)預(yù)測等多種分析預(yù)測方法,根據(jù)湖北省電力市場發(fā)展的特點,提出了適用于該地區(qū)的基于用電大客戶行業(yè)細分的分析預(yù)測方法,結(jié)合已有的基本預(yù)測方法進行綜合預(yù)測,對2014年的全社會用電量、售電、最大負荷等指標進行預(yù)測,并得出了較為合理的預(yù)測結(jié)果,可作為湖北省電力發(fā)展科學決策的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:At present, the electric power market of our country is divided into three levels in the overall structure, namely, the country, the region, the province (city) level electricity market, but the province (city) level electricity market is our country electricity operation foundation core level for a long time. Due to the constraints of various related factors, the analysis and prediction of the power market by the marketing department of provincial power grid companies are often carried out from the overall macro perspective. With the development of economy and society, the market changes become more and more complicated. This rough analysis model has been unable to keep up with the pace of market development and change, and has become one of the difficult problems and bottlenecks restricting the improvement of the marketing level of power grid companies. How to understand and analyze the electricity market more scientifically. Deeply understand the market change trend, accurately grasp the future development direction of the market, and how to follow the basic laws of the market economy and the special law of electric power industry production. It is necessary for us to combine the modern scientific management theory and the basic law of market economy with the new task of enterprise production and management and market competition decision. Set up a set of analysis and forecast method system which is more suitable for the power market of provincial power grid in our country. This article has carried on the comprehensive analysis and the interpretation to the entire electricity sale market in Hubei Province. From the macroscopic-the whole society, the meso---industry (user group, micro-- large customer) these three levels carries on the analysis and the research to carry on the analysis and the research from the macroscopic-whole society, the meso---industry. Based on a large number of customer data, this paper analyzes and excavates the classification and development characteristics of different types of large customers. The main influencing factors and combined with factors are classified forecast, the composition and characteristics of the electricity market are studied, and the electricity market is further refined. On this basis, statistical analysis method and comparative analysis method are used respectively. Structural analysis, concentration analysis, stepwise economic activity analysis, exponential smoothing, correlation prediction and other analysis and prediction methods, according to the characteristics of Hubei electricity market development. This paper puts forward an analytical and forecasting method based on the industry segmentation of large customers in this area. Combined with the existing basic forecasting methods, this paper makes a comprehensive prediction on the electricity consumption and electricity sales of the whole society in 2014. The maximum load and other indexes are forecasted, and the reasonable results are obtained, which can be used as the basis for scientific decision making on the development of electric power in Hubei province.
【學位授予單位】：北京郵電大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.61;F274

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