本文關(guān)鍵詞：海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析研究　出處：《中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目 綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 指標(biāo)體系 評(píng)估模型

【摘要】：風(fēng)能是一種清潔可再生的綠色能源，“十二五”規(guī)劃指出我國(guó)將持續(xù)大規(guī)模發(fā)展海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目。與陸上風(fēng)電相比，，海上風(fēng)電不占用土地資源，海上風(fēng)能資源豐富，風(fēng)向更加穩(wěn)定。但海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目長(zhǎng)期暴露在惡劣的海洋環(huán)境中，服役條件特殊，這也決定了海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目面臨較大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。同陸上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目相比，海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目具有投入大、技術(shù)含量高的特點(diǎn)，其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理備受投資者重視。 本文首先對(duì)海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的相關(guān)理論做出歸納，闡述了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的含義及其特征，對(duì)海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目所存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的進(jìn)行識(shí)別并評(píng)價(jià)，并介紹了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的幾種常用方法以及海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的幾種方法，重點(diǎn)介紹了層次分析法的相關(guān)理論，并將層次分析法作為本研究中海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的方法，為評(píng)估模型的建立提供方法基礎(chǔ)。 依據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)建立原則，在分析海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征的基礎(chǔ)上，運(yùn)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的方法，對(duì)海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行全面識(shí)別，進(jìn)而構(gòu)建海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系。在構(gòu)建海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系的基礎(chǔ)上，基于層次分析法建立海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型。評(píng)估模型中，模型參數(shù)是通過層次分析法確定的目標(biāo)層指標(biāo)權(quán)重，目標(biāo)層評(píng)價(jià)因素風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值則是通過參閱規(guī)整各相關(guān)學(xué)科既已成型的研究成果而確定。 本研究中海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型的建立，細(xì)化了評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)為日前經(jīng)驗(yàn)不足的海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估工作提供一種新評(píng)估思路。本文以龍?jiān)唇K如東150MW海上（潮間帶）示范風(fēng)電場(chǎng)為研究案例進(jìn)行分析，根據(jù)本研究中提出的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型，對(duì)該項(xiàng)目的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做出評(píng)估。通過該案例分析，這一綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型的可行性和科學(xué)性得到了驗(yàn)證。本研究中的海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型豐富了海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系，為項(xiàng)目管理者提供更加便捷實(shí)用的評(píng)價(jià)方法，為其決策提供可靠依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Wind energy is a clean and renewable green energy. The 12th Five-Year Plan points out that China will continue to develop offshore wind power projects on a large scale. Compared with onshore wind power, offshore wind power does not occupy land resources. Offshore wind energy resources are abundant and wind direction is more stable, but offshore wind power projects are exposed to harsh marine environment for a long time, and the service conditions are special. Compared with onshore wind power project, offshore wind power project has the characteristics of large investment and high technology content, and its risk management is paid more attention to by investors. In this paper, the risk of offshore wind power projects and risk assessment theory is summarized, the meaning of risk and its characteristics, the risk of offshore wind power project risk identification and evaluation. Several common methods of risk identification and several methods of risk assessment for offshore wind power projects are introduced, with emphasis on the related theories of Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used as the comprehensive risk assessment method of offshore wind power project in this study, which provides the method foundation for the establishment of evaluation model. Based on the principles of risk evaluation, and on the basis of analyzing the risk characteristics of offshore wind power projects, the risk factors of offshore wind power projects are fully identified by the method of risk identification. On the basis of constructing the comprehensive risk assessment index system of offshore wind power project, the paper constructs the comprehensive risk assessment index system of offshore wind power project. The comprehensive risk assessment model of offshore wind power project is established based on AHP. In the evaluation model, the model parameters are the target layer index weights determined by AHP. The risk value of target evaluation factors is determined by referring to the research results of relevant disciplines. The establishment of comprehensive risk assessment model for offshore wind power projects in this study. The evaluation index provides a new method for risk assessment of offshore wind power project, which is inexperienced before a few days ago. This paper uses 150 MW offshore (intertidal zone) as Longyuan Jiangsu Rudong. The demonstration wind farm is used as a case study. According to the comprehensive risk assessment model proposed in this study, the comprehensive risk of the project is evaluated. The feasibility and scientific nature of this comprehensive risk assessment model has been verified. The comprehensive risk assessment model of offshore wind power project in this study enriches the risk assessment system of offshore wind power project. To provide a more convenient and practical evaluation method for project managers and provide reliable basis for their decision-making.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM614

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